Thursday, September 24, 2026
PMT: The Midterms!
In a little more than a month, the fate of the U.S. House and Senate and a clutch of key governorships will become clear after the midterm elections.
There is a lot prognostications and attention to polls right now. If you are like me, your inbox (or, hopefully, spam filter) are full of desperate-sounding missives from candidates who sound the alarm about polls moving this way or that.
Ignore most of it. Polls, we have learned over the last few elections, don't really work that well anymore. People don't answer their phone for people they don't know, so phone polling is increasingly based on assumptions and adjustments.
It's true that there seems to be momentum towards Democrats, and no wonder given the state of the economy (at least in terms of buying stuff like gas), but quantifying that is thorny business.
My hunch is that there will some surprises-- lots of them, actually-- this November. Time will tell...
