Thursday, May 28, 2026
PMT: The not-end of a war
When he asserted that the war with Iran could only end with "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER," President Trump might have been right. The problem is, it won't be Iran that surrenders its goals for the conflict. In truth, that might not be a bad outcome-- Trump would declare victory, say that their navy was sunk, etc., and just pull out, without ever achieving his top objectives of regime change and destruction or removal of enriched uranium. Perhaps the Strait of Hormuz would re-open... but that merely returns things to the state of play before the war.
If that 'declared victory/actual defeat' doesn't happen, this will be a low-level forever war with occasional flare-ups. Here's why:
-- Iran's leaders aren't going to give up power or the uranium without a major loss of pride. And they know that they can put Trump off without giving him either thing.
-- Trump's military pressure isn't what he hoped. He did go all-out on an air war, and Iran survived. The Iranians have likely learned from the experience and will be even more resilient in the future-- they are much better at modern drone war that the US seemed to expect.
-- Geography works in Iran's favor. They have home-field advantage in the conflict, most importantly-- and that is a significant advantage. They also have supply routes, open or furtive, in several directions, including with Russia through the Caspian Sea (where the US has no possible sea presence).
-- The US public opposes the war, and if it gets hotter into the mid-terms, the war (and everything that comes with it, including high gas prices) could be a determining factor in House and Senate outcomes. That means that without a declared victory/actual defeat, Trump will politically be unable to escalate the war to the point where achieving his two top goals might be possible.
