Thursday, April 23, 2026
PMT: Who wins the delay?
Despite the bluster on both sides, the war in Iran seems to be in some kind of weird limbo. The Trump administration is calling it a "cease-fire," but the truth is that both sides are blockading commercial ships, which is an act of war. Still, the shooting-at-each-other seems to be on hold.
Who is advantaged by that? Certainly Iran is under pressure as they are stopped from exporting goods (principally oil and gas) to raise money. But the U.S. is in a more complicated jam.
It has been well documented that Iran's drones and missiles are much cheaper and easier to make than the U.S. interceptors that have been relatively successful at blunting attacks. It could be that the pause is allowing Iran to re-stock, while it could be harder for the U.S. to do so. In addition, our military deployments there have become very long, which is taxing our ships and sailors. The USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier, has been at sea for over 300 days, the longest for that kind of ship in 50 years. The Ford suffered a fire in its laundry that caused extensive damage during this deployment, leaving 600 sailors without bunks.
A re-start to hostilities could quickly see the US running out of interceptors and more, if the worst were to happen. It may be that the shooting war is behind us.
