Thursday, July 31, 2025
The politics of population growth
One of the important demographic trends in the United States is the slowing growth in out population-- between 1975 and 2024, the population grew at about 0.9%, but for the next several decades it will be more like 0.2%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. At the same time, the fertility rate has crashed to well below the replacement rate for the population (which is a little over 2 children per woman):
That means that having any population growth at all-- in fact, just to avoid a population crash-- we will have to rely on immigration.
Really, there are three schools on how to deal with this:
1) Encourage immigration, so we don't suffer the economic harms that come with a decreasing pool of labor;
2) Encourage birth by those in the country (a position held by Elon Musk and others); or
3) Allow the population to fall, and make up for the labor problem with increased productivity through automation, AI, etc.
I don't think the second option would work even if we wanted that-- it has already failed in a number of countries, including Italy.
The first option has a way of choosing itself, since supply always finds demand (despite any short-term limits on immigration). But if automation increases productivity, there is less demand for labor.
The third option would have environmental benefits, but relies on a remarkable remaking of the workplace in many industries. It would also empty out some parts of the country, and make some forms of agriculture almost impossible.
Which path do you think is best?
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Since world population will increase to between 9 and 10 billion by the end of the century, and because immigrants have always brought new ideas to this country, reform of our immigration system is the most obvious and straightforward solution.
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: 5:45 AM
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