Thursday, April 24, 2025
PMT: No Deal in Ukraine
Back when he was running for the office, President Trump asserted that he could cut a deal to end the war in Ukraine in one day. It still hasn't happened, nearly 100 days out.
Yesterday, Ukraine rejected a proposal by the US that would basically give Russia everything they want: Crimea, the land they now occupy in Ukraine, and a pledge that Ukraine would not join NATO. That wouldn't be a deal; it would be a surrender by Ukraine.
It would seem that there will not be a negotiated truce, nor will there be continuing material support for Ukraine from the US. That means that one of three things will happen.
First, Ukraine could be isolated and suffer a defeat on the battlefield, probably extending over years.
Second, Europe could more actively back Ukraine, leading to the Russians being repelled. I'm aware that a lot of experts are saying that couldn't happen, but those same experts thought Russia would take Kiev in a matter of weeks. Underestimate Ukraine at your own peril.
Third, a different third party might intervene to negotiate an outcome that both sides grudgingly accept. If that happens, it is now clear that the third party making the deal happen will not be the US, and that (like the other two outcomes) only adds to our diminishment on the world stage.
