Thursday, April 27, 2023
PMT: The Biden Announcement & the 2016 Danger
Now it is official-- Joe Biden is running for re-election.
I'll start out with this: if it comes down to Biden v. Trump, I will vote for Biden.
That said, I worry. Democratic optimists are saying this is the 2020 election again, and the same result will reward us in the end. I'm not so sure.
And here's why: I think that it mattered that the 2020 election happened in a pandemic. The requirements of public life at that time allowed Biden to largely avoid public appearances, which he just is not very good at. His speech is stilted, his words seem borrowed from 2nd-tier Bill Clinton speeches, and he often says the wrong thing, mumbles, or seems confused.
In 2024, Biden will not be able to avoid public appearances without being called on it. That means he either will avoided appearances and be pounded for it (mostly by Trump), or make appearances and give Trump a truckload of video to use in attack ads. Ouch.
And in that way, it is like 2016, where Hillary Clinton made a fraction of the appearances Trump did-- she didn't make a single one in the swing state of Wisconsin-- and assumed she could coast to victory as Trump self-immolated. And we know how that turned out.
Trump is nearly as old as Biden, but can be very effective at situating his opponent and defining him or her by their worst moments. You don't have to wonder what that would look like-- he has been putting out ads like that for a while:
