Thursday, December 08, 2022
Political Mayhem Thursday: The Big Mess A-Coming
You thought 2022 was mayhemic? Wait until you get a load of 2024 in American politics. It is going to be wild.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is already running. We can expect that any number of Republicans of varying ideologies (Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, the MyPillow Guy, whoever that guy is who is known as "Master of the Pan Flute,") are going to jump in as well. Despite the media consensus that Republicans are moving away from Trump, that seems much more true of the elites (including those who would run against him) than for the base that actually shows up for primaries. A lot of people in this country- a plurality of Republicans, and perhaps a majority-- are more allied with Trump than they are to the Republican Party.
That means two out of three possible outcomes could be chaotic. First, loses the primaries and waves good-bye and retires for politics-- that's the non-chaotic outcome. Second, Trump wins the primaries and is the Republican nominee-- that would be chaotic because he has no real platform beyond immigration and uh, kinda talking about veterans, but mostly just wanting to have not lost the 2020 race. The third and most chaotic outcome would be that Trump loses the Republican primaries, runs as an independent against a Democrat and a moderate Republican and just makes the whole thing a giant mess.
Then there are the Democrats.
Joe Biden has won some victories, but is not widely liked. He seems old and fusty and cranky. He didn't really have to campaign in 2020 (because of COVID) but would have to this time, and that would not go so well. If he runs again, he will likely be primaried by a younger person with vigor. If he doesn't run, the Democrats have no dominant front-runner and the problem of the existing president.
And that cycle starts next month. Get ready!
