Thursday, November 03, 2022
PMT: The Bear We Choose
This is the last Thursday before the midterm elections, so there are some things to discuss!
First of all, this is not the "most important election of our lifetimes." There is no way it can be important that 2016, when we elected Trump, opening the floodgates to all sorts of strange and sad things, including an insurrection at the Capitol (hard as that still is to believe).
But it is important. According to 538, it's looking very likely that the US House will switch to the Republicans and slightly probably that the Senate will flip the same way. And, of course, in a state like Minnesota we have a bunch of races that will be very consequential, including the AG, the Governor, the Secretary of State, and a bunch of county attorneys. I'd like to list what won't happen and what will happen-- good and bad-- if the Republicans sweep the House and Senate and a bunch of these key state races:
What won't happen:
1) Inflation won't be affected. It is driven by things other than legislation and the actions of governors. It will go up for a while and then go down no matter who wins.
2) Gas prices won't be affected. See # 1.
3) Crime won't be affected. Policing is the key here (along with the social fabric), and police chiefs are not elected. And even at that, we don't know much about what makes crime go up or down-- though a huge public health crisis like the pandemic is a likely driver. That means that over the next year crime will go down no matter who wins.
4) The world won't end. We'll be fine, at least for two more years.
What will happen:
1) There will be divided government, which means big spending bills will be hard to get through. And in terms of the deficit, that's good.
2) There will be a lot of House committee investigations into Hunter Biden. Sigh.
3) It will be less likely that Joe Biden will run for re-election, and that would be very good. I think the experience will just get much less pleasant (which is saying something given the current state of affairs).
4) There are going to be a lot more Marjorie Taylor Greene-types in the House. Not good.
5) Perhaps most importantly, there will be many more people in power who are willing to undermine the integrity of elections. And that is very very very bad.
