Thursday, September 22, 2022
PMT: The End of the War
For those of you who tuned it out after a while, some important things are happening in the war in Ukraine. Late in the summer, Ukraine began a largely successful counter-offensive and has regained much of Northeast Ukraine from Russian forces. This week, Russia partially mobilized its reservists, which reflects the failures of their current fighters.
In the New York Times, Thomas Friedman described three possible outcomes:
1) Ukraine could continue its advance and recover all of its lost territory, possibly including Crimea, as Russian forces collapse.
2) A deal is cut soon that pretty much freezes the status quo, with Russia retaining much of its captured territory and probably annexing some of it.
3) A deal is cut that leaves the lines where they were before the Russian invasion.
There is, of course, a fourth possible outcome that was not mentioned:
4) Russia regroups and over-runs Ukraine.
And, realistically, a fifth one:
5) The war expands (possibly through the use of nuclear weapons) to the rest of Europe and possibly the world.
One would imagine that Russia would prefer option 4 but might accept 2. Ukraine would want option 1 but might accept 3. The European Union, which is paying a high economic price for this war, probably wants option 2, preferably before winter and the need for heating oil increases.
No one really wants 5. But that doesn't mean it can't happen-- and accepting one of the compromise options may be the best way to avoid it, some will argue.
