Osler's Razor

As you might expect, I'm in contact with a lot of people who have big plans for the Biden administration-- bold, innovative plans that will hasten much-needed changes in a range of areas, especially (given the people I know) in the field of criminal law.  

We do need bold, clean reform, and fast.

I don't think we are going to get that, though. I hope I am wrong. But I fear that I am right. 

Bernie didn't win. Warren didn't win. Even Cory Booker didn't come close (I still don't know why he wasn't at or near the top). Democrats nominated as our presidential candidate the most centrist thinker among those competing in the primaries at a serious level. While he has chosen a racially and gender-diverse group of leaders for his administration, he has not chosen bold innovators or outsiders. He has picked, almost exclusively, veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations. 

And now that we have these experienced plodders in positions of power, they are the ones that bold ideas will be pitched to. And-- shocker-- they won't bite. That's not what they do. They might form a study group. They'll take meetings. They might adopt a minor part of a bigger plan here or there. But they are unlikely to be change agents. 

Believe me, I am all for simple competence, and that in itself will be a big change in some areas of government after the anything-goes administration that will be moving out. Yes, it is way better to have competent centrists in power than fringe-element goofballs. 

But... for those of us who hoped for systemic change in some areas, we probably have already lost. No one with a similar mindset will be in the inner circle of government unless there are some surprises yet to come. That means that we outsiders have no ally on the inside. And in criminal justice, it means that the chief and only advisor to the president will probably be the good old DOJ. Sigh. I mean, really-- taking a major decarceration plan to Merrick Garland is not a high-percentage shot. 

But also... I might be wrong. And I will still try.

# posted by Mark Osler @ 1:00 AM