Thursday, October 15, 2020
PMT: One Scenario for December, 2020
It is a mistake at this point to assume that Joe Biden will win the presidential race. That presumption is no more warranted than the widely-held belief that Hillary Clinton would win at the same point in 2016-- and we know how that turned out.
But, of course, Biden might win. And for too many people, that seems to be the end of the line-- that winning that election will solve our problems. And of course it won't. If he wins, Biden will face a disastrous pandemic that will stretch well into his presidency, an economy that is disproportionately punishing the working class in this downturn, a stunning national deficit inflated by Trump's profligate spending and tax cuts, mounting climate disasters, and damaged relations with our international allies.
And, also, probably something that no one seems to be talking about.
If Trump loses, does anyone believe he will keep his promise to "go away?" Of course not. Trump's engagement with the office shows that what he values most is being the center of attention, the "ratings." And that is why his ego will demand that if he loses in November, he will immediately start running for president in the 2024 election, to regain the office that was "stolen" from him. He will tour the country giving rallies, be a perpetual commentator on conservative media outlets, and live off of the money that the campaign rakes in.
And that may well be the death knell of the Republican Party, something that would be bad for us all. Trumpism, which is centered on international isolationism, restricted trade, and deficit-bulging spending, is contrary to what most conservatives actually believe in. Many in the party, certainly, don't think about that any more-- their personal allegiance is to Trump and whatever it is he is for that day. But once Trump is out of office, a substantial part of the party will return to principles. That division-- with 25% to 35% of the nation pledged through personality to Trump, while another 20% or so of the population revert to a belief in federalism, fiscal austerity, international engagement, and free trade (and the rejection of Trump that such beliefs necessitate).
Those two positions are irreconcilable, especially since Trump attacks "disloyal" Republicans more ferociously than any other target. That means the two factions will be unable to re-combine so long as Trump's 2024 campaign goes on. And each faction, with only a quarter of the population behind it, has no chance to win elections going forward.
That would be great for Democrats electorally, but bad for the nation in the long run. And it might just happen.
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The conversation concerning the demise of the Republican Party on this blog seems eerily familiar. If my memory serves, the last time we discussed this question the GOP went out subsequently and won the House and Senate and a historic number of state houses and governor's mansions over the next six years. Perhaps I have said this before. The two parties are pretty well entrenched in our system. That does not mean they cannot go away. Of course, they can and may well just follow the script laid out here by a very insightful observer. Or they may not. As so often is the case, the future may well unspool in a way that we never imagined.
As for ACB, A Few Observations from the Hearings:
1. It seems clear to me that the Democrats opted to retreat and fight another day. Not that the Judiciary Dems did not give it the old college try. But they wisely backed of a discussion of her faith--not for principled reasons but for pure politics. They opted to place all their chips on strengthening ACA as a November issue and hopefully rough up the reputation of a likely conservative associate justice and cast her as not quite legit. The strategy did not work especially well, and from what I can tell their blows did not connect. Polling started to move against them. Some senators doubled down on rudeness. Some hedged with a little kindness. Both concessions indicated cognizance of an impending defeat on the nomination fight.
2. Micro Message. It was telling that the Senators continued to read from their briefing books, droning on with their heads down over long and unconvincing passages while ACB stared back at them steely eyed and unfazed. They often seemed unable to meet her gaze even as she held her head high (fatigued but undiminished) seemingly strengthened and soaring on wings like eagles.
An Aside: Longtime readers of this blog will recall my disdain for the hearing process. In theory, I concede the essentialness of congressional oversight. In practice, the spectacle of fatuous senators mugging for the cameras and Twitter memes and sound bites, generally one staff memo away from total ignorance on almost any subject, while they berate some poor citizen generally sickens and infuriates me in a wholly nonpartisan way. In this case, the circus turned to farce as they learned to their chagrin they had a tiger by the tail. Good for a chuckle--but not especially helpful to republican government.
3. Macro Message for Decision 2020. Competence. The triumph of the "Trump" nominee ACB offered a message of supreme competence against the backdrop of the mediocre (being generous) gang of "Biden" Dems the likes of Whitehouse, Blumenthal, Booker, Harris, and Hirono. Viewership for these events is famously small, and I suspect the outcome of this election is already baked in the cake. But, for anyone persuadable with eyes to see (and I am not optimistic that represents a big number), this week-long morality play offered a clear choice. And as a champion (or symbol) of conservative ideals and personhood ACB delivered in a big way.
As for ACB, A Few Observations from the Hearings:
1. It seems clear to me that the Democrats opted to retreat and fight another day. Not that the Judiciary Dems did not give it the old college try. But they wisely backed of a discussion of her faith--not for principled reasons but for pure politics. They opted to place all their chips on strengthening ACA as a November issue and hopefully rough up the reputation of a likely conservative associate justice and cast her as not quite legit. The strategy did not work especially well, and from what I can tell their blows did not connect. Polling started to move against them. Some senators doubled down on rudeness. Some hedged with a little kindness. Both concessions indicated cognizance of an impending defeat on the nomination fight.
2. Micro Message. It was telling that the Senators continued to read from their briefing books, droning on with their heads down over long and unconvincing passages while ACB stared back at them steely eyed and unfazed. They often seemed unable to meet her gaze even as she held her head high (fatigued but undiminished) seemingly strengthened and soaring on wings like eagles.
An Aside: Longtime readers of this blog will recall my disdain for the hearing process. In theory, I concede the essentialness of congressional oversight. In practice, the spectacle of fatuous senators mugging for the cameras and Twitter memes and sound bites, generally one staff memo away from total ignorance on almost any subject, while they berate some poor citizen generally sickens and infuriates me in a wholly nonpartisan way. In this case, the circus turned to farce as they learned to their chagrin they had a tiger by the tail. Good for a chuckle--but not especially helpful to republican government.
3. Macro Message for Decision 2020. Competence. The triumph of the "Trump" nominee ACB offered a message of supreme competence against the backdrop of the mediocre (being generous) gang of "Biden" Dems the likes of Whitehouse, Blumenthal, Booker, Harris, and Hirono. Viewership for these events is famously small, and I suspect the outcome of this election is already baked in the cake. But, for anyone persuadable with eyes to see (and I am not optimistic that represents a big number), this week-long morality play offered a clear choice. And as a champion (or symbol) of conservative ideals and personhood ACB delivered in a big way.
I couldn't bring myself to listen to the hearings. They are necessary but terrible to watch, kind of like sixth grade band concerts.
Do you really think that if we get to 2022 and Biden is president and Trump is running for president, that there is no real challenge to the Republican party in that?
Do you really think that if we get to 2022 and Biden is president and Trump is running for president, that there is no real challenge to the Republican party in that?
You are wrong about what I said in 2016.
Though I thought Clinton would win in 2016, I disagreed with the supposed demise of the Republican party. Here is a quote: "It won't be the end of the Grand Old Party, though; far from it." In the same post, I correctly predicted that the Republicans would in fact do well in the mid-term Senate election in 2018.
http://oslersrazor.blogspot.com/2016/10/political-mayhem-thursday-after-nov-9.html
That is very different than what I am saying now, almost exactly 4 years later.
Though I thought Clinton would win in 2016, I disagreed with the supposed demise of the Republican party. Here is a quote: "It won't be the end of the Grand Old Party, though; far from it." In the same post, I correctly predicted that the Republicans would in fact do well in the mid-term Senate election in 2018.
http://oslersrazor.blogspot.com/2016/10/political-mayhem-thursday-after-nov-9.html
That is very different than what I am saying now, almost exactly 4 years later.
Frankly, I did not remember what you said four years ago. Thank you for the reminder. Good reminder about how shocking November 8 was to both of us.
I was actually thinking about a 2009 conversation: https://oslersrazor.blogspot.com/2009/06/political-mayhem-thursday-will.html
I was actually thinking about a 2009 conversation: https://oslersrazor.blogspot.com/2009/06/political-mayhem-thursday-will.html
I, for one, will worry about an irretrievably broken GOP and a dominant Democratic Party when I see it.
45 will not actually campaign again. He will do what he was planning to do when he inadvertently won in 2016, take over a Foxnews competitor, probable OAN, and yell at us 4-6 hours a day.
The Republican party will reform under Niki Haley and others who successfully walked the gauntlet between completely selling their souls to Trumpism and remaining conventionally connected to the party. These people will still be welcome to those who feel any Democratic leadership is socialism.
The Republican party will reform under Niki Haley and others who successfully walked the gauntlet between completely selling their souls to Trumpism and remaining conventionally connected to the party. These people will still be welcome to those who feel any Democratic leadership is socialism.
I am not sure what will happen, other than Trump is definitely NOT going away. I suspect he will lose, but there is going to be a great deal of litigation before this election is final.
He will threaten to run in '24, for sure. As will Don Jr.
As for the GOP, it will be bloody. Much will depend on how things go if Biden wins. If the Virus is still rampant, the economy goes bad (for the rich-- it already bad for anyone who is not an investor) and/or there's a foreign policy disaster, the Trumpists will have an "I told you so" argument.
He will threaten to run in '24, for sure. As will Don Jr.
As for the GOP, it will be bloody. Much will depend on how things go if Biden wins. If the Virus is still rampant, the economy goes bad (for the rich-- it already bad for anyone who is not an investor) and/or there's a foreign policy disaster, the Trumpists will have an "I told you so" argument.
It's almost like you heard the conversation that my husband and I had this morning. I was saying that one of the big casualties of Trump and his allies' takeover of the RP is the loss of moderate Republican ideas in the debate. In the environmental realm, ideas like a carbon tax, emissions trading, wetlands banking, and public/private partnerships for species conservation are real options that should be considered along with government regulation. Many of my students don't realize that there are private sector solutions to environmental challenges, because they're not hearing about them. With the worship of Trump, instead of constructive conversations, these ideas are being shut down, when they should be included as part of the list of possible solutions.
Desiree-- that is an excellent point.
Eric-- He could do both! And that taking-over-a-network didn't go so well for Al Gore after 2000.
Eric-- He could do both! And that taking-over-a-network didn't go so well for Al Gore after 2000.
WF-- here is what I said in the post you cite (from June of 2009, after Obama won and about the time Dems had a majority in both houses of congress): "As someone uncomfortable with one-party rule, at least for very long, I'm sad to see how badly the Republicans are floundering. They are led by the far right of their party, who showboat for the base, and make few moves to attract the moderates who win elections. If they don't change course, they will continue to become a regional party, not a national one."
That's the whole post-- it was a short one!
The Republicans were floundering.
They did change course and found a moderate presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, who came close to knocking off Obama in 2012.
They also did something I did not see at the time: focus of state legislatures, win majorities there, and control redistricting in many states.
That's the whole post-- it was a short one!
The Republicans were floundering.
They did change course and found a moderate presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, who came close to knocking off Obama in 2012.
They also did something I did not see at the time: focus of state legislatures, win majorities there, and control redistricting in many states.
Donald Trump is a seriously ill man, and his political allies are not going to come to his rescue. He has no friends. He is flailing at any target he thinks caused his downfall, including the Trumpians in the GOP, which includes almost all elected Republicans. Day after day he is being drained of importance and is becoming more and more politically contagious. He will continue his chaotic, self promoting, not caring about others dialogue with his base until election day. He has defined himself and the Republican party with his bizarre antics.
In my mind he will be impotent without the power he now has to destroy his opponents. After the election until power is exchanged he will posture, pout and cause trouble for those who failed him, including the American people. After that he will drift away. He will be broken, broke and seriously in debt with only his court cases making news. There was never much to Donald Trump
His influence in the Republican party has always been based on delivering his base. Poof, gone. Even now with election reality setting in,a few elected Republicans are joining non elected Republicans in shelving him. At the Justice Barrett coronation not a single Republican Senator defended Trump. They have openly shifted complete loyalty to the Koch brothers and their hand picked jurists, including Amy Barrett, in their fight for "personal freedom" and against democracy.
The Republican party's "competence" has placed our nation in deep debt and in serious peril. We will need two smart, progressive and imaginative political parties to lead us out of our self inflicted quagmire. Historically renaissance has followed disasters. We will need reconstructed Democratic and Republican parties. They will have to be more agile, united in purpose and fearless. We need both parties to agree that threats to our way of life are coming from inside our country as well as outside. The transformation will need the active participation of mind changers, young politicians who reject the idea that we need to spend time protecting a perfect country. We need new voices and minds that are open to replacing and restoring our unfair and broken institutions. They may call themselves Democrats or Republicans, but no one should care. Our young people have seen for themselves the results of incompetent and self serving government. We should be in good hands. Donald J Trump will disappear in our rear view mirror if this happens.
In my mind he will be impotent without the power he now has to destroy his opponents. After the election until power is exchanged he will posture, pout and cause trouble for those who failed him, including the American people. After that he will drift away. He will be broken, broke and seriously in debt with only his court cases making news. There was never much to Donald Trump
His influence in the Republican party has always been based on delivering his base. Poof, gone. Even now with election reality setting in,a few elected Republicans are joining non elected Republicans in shelving him. At the Justice Barrett coronation not a single Republican Senator defended Trump. They have openly shifted complete loyalty to the Koch brothers and their hand picked jurists, including Amy Barrett, in their fight for "personal freedom" and against democracy.
The Republican party's "competence" has placed our nation in deep debt and in serious peril. We will need two smart, progressive and imaginative political parties to lead us out of our self inflicted quagmire. Historically renaissance has followed disasters. We will need reconstructed Democratic and Republican parties. They will have to be more agile, united in purpose and fearless. We need both parties to agree that threats to our way of life are coming from inside our country as well as outside. The transformation will need the active participation of mind changers, young politicians who reject the idea that we need to spend time protecting a perfect country. We need new voices and minds that are open to replacing and restoring our unfair and broken institutions. They may call themselves Democrats or Republicans, but no one should care. Our young people have seen for themselves the results of incompetent and self serving government. We should be in good hands. Donald J Trump will disappear in our rear view mirror if this happens.
Brilliant analysis from John Osler. So much with which to agree!!!
Sure. Trump is toxic. He will leave a mark. If he is indeed defeated, he will huff and puff but very unlikely NOT blow the house down. His post presidency will not be pretty. And he should be done. He will be old (very old) and a newly minted loser. In general, Trump embarrasses thinking Republicans, and we try not to defend his indefensible conduct.
An Aside: it is however very easy for a thinking Republican to defend Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and ACB. Easy enough to defend rebalancing the regulatory regime that built up over the Clinton-Bush-Obama years. Easy enough for us to defend the recognition of Jerusalem, the lack of wars in the Middle East, and the burgeoning peace and alliances between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Easy enough to defend our current relationships with China, Russia, and NATO (all pretty good and probably headed in the right general direction). All that to say this four years has not been a total loss for thinking Republicans.
More agreement with John. Perhaps history is not cyclical--but there are plenty of instances in which down times brought out the best of people and a deep trough led to a dramatic upturn. Definitely could happen on all kinds of levels and in multiple sectors. I am hopeful. Parties are market-driven and tend to pursue innovative and practical solutions that attract voters. Could be very good. Again, I am hopeful. The deeply in debt United States offers a problem of sustainability that may well dwarf all our other problems in the future.
For Mark Osler: after reading the post and comments from 2009 that I was referencing (initially from memory), I can see that your brevity was very wise, indeed. My length and specificity (while "spinably" coherent) reminds me of the old Yogi Bera adage that predictions are hard (especially about the future).
Sure. Trump is toxic. He will leave a mark. If he is indeed defeated, he will huff and puff but very unlikely NOT blow the house down. His post presidency will not be pretty. And he should be done. He will be old (very old) and a newly minted loser. In general, Trump embarrasses thinking Republicans, and we try not to defend his indefensible conduct.
An Aside: it is however very easy for a thinking Republican to defend Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and ACB. Easy enough to defend rebalancing the regulatory regime that built up over the Clinton-Bush-Obama years. Easy enough for us to defend the recognition of Jerusalem, the lack of wars in the Middle East, and the burgeoning peace and alliances between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Easy enough to defend our current relationships with China, Russia, and NATO (all pretty good and probably headed in the right general direction). All that to say this four years has not been a total loss for thinking Republicans.
More agreement with John. Perhaps history is not cyclical--but there are plenty of instances in which down times brought out the best of people and a deep trough led to a dramatic upturn. Definitely could happen on all kinds of levels and in multiple sectors. I am hopeful. Parties are market-driven and tend to pursue innovative and practical solutions that attract voters. Could be very good. Again, I am hopeful. The deeply in debt United States offers a problem of sustainability that may well dwarf all our other problems in the future.
For Mark Osler: after reading the post and comments from 2009 that I was referencing (initially from memory), I can see that your brevity was very wise, indeed. My length and specificity (while "spinably" coherent) reminds me of the old Yogi Bera adage that predictions are hard (especially about the future).
You'll note, too, that I'm not taking any public position at all on ACB (though the process is problematic). After my support of Kavanaugh blew up on me, I am letting the process sort that one out.
If Biden wins, the good news is that the Democrats did not run a radically left wing candidate setting up a terrible choice for most Americans. Trump's few consistent policies are all pretty extreme (I hesitate to call them conservative, because I find his views on immigration and "religious freedom" to be extremely activist). He does not represent the mainstream, but he has developed a cult like following.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/16/republican-revisionist-history-trump-is-already-being-written/
John - thank you for your wise words.
As for the Republicans - there are those engaged with the Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump. They are only with the Democrats in an attempt to make the cockwomble go away.
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As for the Republicans - there are those engaged with the Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump. They are only with the Democrats in an attempt to make the cockwomble go away.
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