Osler's Razor

On Tuesday, over 1100 people died of COVID in one day for the first time in a month and a half. It was inevitable that deaths would go up after total infections did, but it is a dispiriting reality.

Now the choices become harder.

If kids go back to high school and college kids return to their universities, there will be  another spike in infections-- at this point, that is simple math, given the inability for social distancing in those settings and the likelihood that mask use will be limited by the patience of teenagers.

But if school doesn't start, there will be a real personal and economic cost for many families and the nation. Workers will be unable to go back to work because their kids are at home, and even those who try to work from home while the kids are there will lose efficiency (as we have seen for months).

Plus, as the weather gets colder, the chance of doing things outside-- which turns out to be much less conducive to the spread of COVID-- will become more limited.

In Texas, there is much hand-wringing because the football season has been pushed back for some high schools.  Of course, it is a terrible idea to have a football season at all. "It should be ok, if kids are willing to take the risk," some coaches say. Right-- because kids are so great at cost-benefit analysis and delayed gratification for abstract outcomes, huh? And, of course, the kids might be ok. It's their grandparents who will die.

Many of us hoped this would be over by now. We are having to face the cruel reality that it just is not done. I hope we do, in fact, face that reality.