Thursday, May 28, 2020
Political Mayhem Thursday: 100,000
We have crossed a threshold: 100,000 deaths to COVID-19, in just a few months.
It is a grim milestone.
The United States has less than 5% of the world's population, but over 25% of the world's deaths to COVID-- and this in an industrialized nation that so often boasts of having "the world's best health care." Maybe now people will stop telling that particular lie-- the truth is that the United States ranks number one in the cost of health care, and I'm not sure that is anything to brag about.
"What went wrong?" is an important question, but I think it needs to have a particular focus. Specifically, we need to analyze what happened and make changes based on actual data as we anticipate a second wave of COVID in the fall. I am sensing that people see this as the end of the pandemic--numbers of infections and deaths are falling-- but that ignores what the experts are saying about a second wave.
That analysis, too, needs to be held away from our political divide. The key question for this purpose isn't who made mistakes, but what the mistakes were and how we can avoid them in the future. I got the chance to talk to decision-makers and advisors from all over the country via the National Governor's Association this week on a call, and this is what I urged in terms of COVID and prisons: we must learn from what has happened, and act in anticipation of a second wave.
Of course, who made mistakes is relevant to the elections we have in the fall. But I hope that we can have both discussions at the same time.
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Mark
Doctors and scientists now have enough data to snuff out any fall outbreak. Many countries guessed that a combination of universal testing, contact tracing and isolation at the earliest signs is enough. Trust, vigilance, and focused funding for those affected did work. As long as there is travel between states this has to be done on a national level. Local edicts on social distancing and mask wearing can limit the rate of infection.
In today's NYT we have learned that following the first proven cases in Washington State the virus died out. The travel ban from China didn't preclude Americans from entering our country. It was weeks after the first cases were made public that a returning American introduced a more effective mutation that led to the pandemic. We later had the virus enter our country from Europe via one citizen.
We possibly could have dramatically limited our losses from this virus from the start. We had written the book on how to do this. In the past when other threats showed up we started hearing daily briefings from Atlanta not Washington. The CDC in Atlanta was ceded the absolute power to act and to inform the public from the get go. We have learned to trust the CDC. The world trusts and admires America's CDC. They used their guidelines to successfully squelch the virus.
This summer and fall the CDC will probably continue to be silenced unless we can put enough pressure on the GOP to stand tall and insist that we transfer power to the doctors and scientists at the CDC. I think they could break through the political fog and get 70% of the public to follow their lead, by wearing masks in public and respecting our neighbors. We would need a national task force to test and contact trace under the CDC's guidance. If this is done we could safely continue our lives.
Doctors and scientists now have enough data to snuff out any fall outbreak. Many countries guessed that a combination of universal testing, contact tracing and isolation at the earliest signs is enough. Trust, vigilance, and focused funding for those affected did work. As long as there is travel between states this has to be done on a national level. Local edicts on social distancing and mask wearing can limit the rate of infection.
In today's NYT we have learned that following the first proven cases in Washington State the virus died out. The travel ban from China didn't preclude Americans from entering our country. It was weeks after the first cases were made public that a returning American introduced a more effective mutation that led to the pandemic. We later had the virus enter our country from Europe via one citizen.
We possibly could have dramatically limited our losses from this virus from the start. We had written the book on how to do this. In the past when other threats showed up we started hearing daily briefings from Atlanta not Washington. The CDC in Atlanta was ceded the absolute power to act and to inform the public from the get go. We have learned to trust the CDC. The world trusts and admires America's CDC. They used their guidelines to successfully squelch the virus.
This summer and fall the CDC will probably continue to be silenced unless we can put enough pressure on the GOP to stand tall and insist that we transfer power to the doctors and scientists at the CDC. I think they could break through the political fog and get 70% of the public to follow their lead, by wearing masks in public and respecting our neighbors. We would need a national task force to test and contact trace under the CDC's guidance. If this is done we could safely continue our lives.
Good point, dad! It might be true that doctors and scientists have enough data to snuff out a fall outbreak-- but the political will to do what they recommend is what is in question.
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