Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Will the end be fast or slow?
I suspect that many of us imagine the end of the COVID crisis to be as sudden as the onset: over the course of a week or so, everything will open back up and return to normal. We all go back to work, take vacations, pal around and shake hands again.
That might happen, I suppose, but I think it is unlikely. The COVID virus is here for a while, and it probably won't "suddenly disappear" as someone (cough cough) once suggested. Rather, it will bounce around the world for the next year or so, at least, one hot spot cropping up and then another. Even when a vaccine is available, it won't be implemented immediately-- and that is at least a year away.
In time, of course, some people will become immune--having survived the virus-- and they will have greater freedom. That is already the way it is in China, where those with immunity are able to go to malls, hang out with friends, and do all the things we now long for. Others, who have not had the virus, still face limitations.
In the fall, will I be teaching online or in person? Or will the people with immunity be in my classroom, while those without look in via Zoom?
That two-class society will create odd incentives-- for example, many people who consider themselves low-risk will be tempted to expose themselves to the virus so they can earn that greater level of freedom. Others might find ways to fake it, by using false documents or other means. My dad has suggested a badge system, where those who are immune can go to work, to shop, to the gym, so long as they have the badge. And you can bet that people will want that badge.
It will be a series of shifts and shocks, and this weirdness will not go away as suddenly as it came. Rather, it is likely to disrupt our society in ways we don't see coming over a period of a year or more.
Comments:
<< Home
It is my hope that America will take note of more enlightened countries who are already planning how best to get back to normalcy. To help get those who have acquired antibodies to the virus get back to work we could:
1) Universally test for the antibodies 2)Register those who test positive in a national register 3)Give those who test positive a QR code on their phone or card or wristband 4) Hire those who are jobless to be part of a task force to work in their communities to administer the tests, assign a marker and register each citizen.
The tests must be simple and quick and given when a community is deemed safe. The test will not tell you if you have the virus, only if you have had it.There are many tests available that only need to be tuned to identify the appropriate antibodies. This should be a national initiative carried out community by community. This will allow communities to feel comfortable to allow many to resume a normal life, many who never knew that they were infected. It will give the rest of us some assurance that we can identify those who can no longer pass the virus on. The registry will provide valuable information.
1) Universally test for the antibodies 2)Register those who test positive in a national register 3)Give those who test positive a QR code on their phone or card or wristband 4) Hire those who are jobless to be part of a task force to work in their communities to administer the tests, assign a marker and register each citizen.
The tests must be simple and quick and given when a community is deemed safe. The test will not tell you if you have the virus, only if you have had it.There are many tests available that only need to be tuned to identify the appropriate antibodies. This should be a national initiative carried out community by community. This will allow communities to feel comfortable to allow many to resume a normal life, many who never knew that they were infected. It will give the rest of us some assurance that we can identify those who can no longer pass the virus on. The registry will provide valuable information.
Pray for reaching herd immunity! Hopefully here in NY we could be the first to be on our way, since we are now in the middle the largest COVID-19 devastation. Gov. Cuomo just reported another high...731 people died in NY, the largest single-day increase so far.
Post a Comment
<< Home
