Wednesday, March 04, 2020
I was wrong!
You may remember that I predicted not so long ago the the Democratic primary race could be thrown into disarray under the following scenario:
1) Sanders wins New Hampshire (this proved to be true)
2) Biden wins South Carolina (this also happened)
3) On Super Tuesday, Bloomberg's money would trump all, and he would become the leader.
I was wrong on that third prediction, and I'm really glad for it.
Upon reflection, I think I made the same mistake many people (including Bloomberg) have made: I over-valued the importance of money in winning elections. After all, Clinton very much outspent Trump in 2016, and we know how that went. Especially in the internet age, a bunch of TV ads probably don't have the impact that they once did.
And perhaps that is a very good thing.
Comments:
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You're absolutely right, but I think it goes beyond the evolution of media beyond TV; I think primary voters are smart enough to know when they're being manipulated, at least when the manipulation is so obvious.
I never thought I'd say I'm relieved that Biden is the frontrunner (and I'm not, really – I genuinely think that his long history of being bad at running for president and his clear mental decline mean that he will lose to Trump in the general), but if Bloomberg's whole run was an It's a Wonderful Life-esque attempt to make young left-wingers like me feel grateful for what we have...
I never thought I'd say I'm relieved that Biden is the frontrunner (and I'm not, really – I genuinely think that his long history of being bad at running for president and his clear mental decline mean that he will lose to Trump in the general), but if Bloomberg's whole run was an It's a Wonderful Life-esque attempt to make young left-wingers like me feel grateful for what we have...
Joe Biden has just gotten a whole lot of support from people who trust Joe and describe him as a decent man. Joe Biden will continue to have small clumsy victories when he finally finds a word. He still doesn't know when to quit talking. Joe Biden didn't have a juggernaut campaign. He will never proclaim himself as all that important and will never lead a cult or revolution.
He will not insult his way to victory as much as murmur decent thoughts that don't offend. Obviously being a good man was the syrup that Democrats were looking for and hopefully the country will favor. Joe Biden will be comfortable as a sympathetic underdog. It also seems he is not inclined to stand in the way of the younger minds to come to the fore in his campaign, and in his administration.
I think he needs to let Amy, AOC, Stacy, Pete, Elizabeth, Beto, Julian, Michael, Andrew, Bernie etc. etc. do the talking while he gives confirmation and summation. He can take the high ground while quoting them when he attacks Donald J Trump. I would suggest that he has round tables about our future with our bright young citizens where he only asks questions and listens. He is someone whose nature could make this work.
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He will not insult his way to victory as much as murmur decent thoughts that don't offend. Obviously being a good man was the syrup that Democrats were looking for and hopefully the country will favor. Joe Biden will be comfortable as a sympathetic underdog. It also seems he is not inclined to stand in the way of the younger minds to come to the fore in his campaign, and in his administration.
I think he needs to let Amy, AOC, Stacy, Pete, Elizabeth, Beto, Julian, Michael, Andrew, Bernie etc. etc. do the talking while he gives confirmation and summation. He can take the high ground while quoting them when he attacks Donald J Trump. I would suggest that he has round tables about our future with our bright young citizens where he only asks questions and listens. He is someone whose nature could make this work.
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