Tuesday, February 04, 2020
A prediction
Now we move on from the Iowa caucuses. Or, at some point, we do-- there is some kind of major problem with vote tabulation, and the results are seriously delayed. Based on what I saw last night, I suspect that the evening will be a major disappointment for Joe Biden, but we will have to wait and see.
What happens after that?
I think Bernie will win NH, and Biden SC. Not sure about Nevada.
But then.... Super Tuesday will mess everything else, and that is when Bloomberg will emerge. With so many primaries on one day, and with some of those states (California & Texas) having so many large media markets, he will be the only one able to spend enough to cover it all, and he will. Then the rest will be looking up at him. And then things get interesting.
Comments:
<< Home
That's a fair prediction, but... oof, I really hope you're wrong. This election is a generational opportunity to fix enormous systemic inequities and turn our nation toward compassion, freedom, and equality, and I can't think of a candidate who has a worse track record of tackling inequality (ESPECIALLY racial inequality) than Bloomberg. The fact he and Trump are in a billionaire feud isn't a platform that engages young voters like me, and the Democratic party NEEDS young voters to win the general.
Unlike Trump’s billions, Bloomberg’s billions are real and they give him an extra edge of arrogance and chutzpah to give as bad as he gets from the bully in chief. He also seems committed to throw all those billions for whomever will end up facing Trump. I agree with Micah’s point on Bloomberg’s track on inequality here in NYC. He did implement some good stuff, true, but in a Napoleonic complex fashion that alienated many people.
Micah
Trump will be marketed until the election as a powerful and successful President with a track record of compassionate policies. You and I will not be persuaded, and we both need a voice that responds to his message. I believe in all the Democrats running this year and feel confident that they will all respect the rights and needs of young and old voters, Michael Bloomberg included.
The candidate that is selected this fall to oppose Donald J Trump will probably not be either of our first choices. All we know is that the critical difference between the potential winner and Trump will be HUGE. At the moment the deficiencies of this year's candidates are on full display, " This guy/gal is too rich, too liberal, too old, too inexperienced, too radical, not radical enough, not electable, etc, etc."
Tsk, tsk! Democrats should have learned better.
I think Bloomberg's ads are effective and should appeal to young voters. Please be careful when you equate Bloomberg and Trump. You are only elevating Donald Trump. He has the worst track record.
Trump will be marketed until the election as a powerful and successful President with a track record of compassionate policies. You and I will not be persuaded, and we both need a voice that responds to his message. I believe in all the Democrats running this year and feel confident that they will all respect the rights and needs of young and old voters, Michael Bloomberg included.
The candidate that is selected this fall to oppose Donald J Trump will probably not be either of our first choices. All we know is that the critical difference between the potential winner and Trump will be HUGE. At the moment the deficiencies of this year's candidates are on full display, " This guy/gal is too rich, too liberal, too old, too inexperienced, too radical, not radical enough, not electable, etc, etc."
Tsk, tsk! Democrats should have learned better.
I think Bloomberg's ads are effective and should appeal to young voters. Please be careful when you equate Bloomberg and Trump. You are only elevating Donald Trump. He has the worst track record.
I agree that Bloomberg would make things better. It is deflating that the super-rich control our politics, though.
Mark and Micah
As you probably know we all agree to live in a country that Micah desires, becoming more compassionate, equal, freer.
We need a leader who shares our goals. Compassion differs from empathy and sympathy in that it requires taking some corrective action.
We have some candidates that have the power to win, affect change and trend towards empathy and other candidates who are chocked full of empathy but may lack the power in our current system to win and succeed. We will never get rid of money in politics until we get the power to make the change. I share your fear that those in a bubble of wealth can't see the inequities around them. It is our job is to improve their vision.
As you probably know we all agree to live in a country that Micah desires, becoming more compassionate, equal, freer.
We need a leader who shares our goals. Compassion differs from empathy and sympathy in that it requires taking some corrective action.
We have some candidates that have the power to win, affect change and trend towards empathy and other candidates who are chocked full of empathy but may lack the power in our current system to win and succeed. We will never get rid of money in politics until we get the power to make the change. I share your fear that those in a bubble of wealth can't see the inequities around them. It is our job is to improve their vision.
Obviously I'll vote for Bloomberg in the unlikely event he's the nominee. But I'd be very disappointed if he were the nominee, and he is emphatically not going to get the youth vote out (and low youth turnout is part of what brought us Trump).
Most importantly, though, I genuinely don't think he can beat Trump, and the data backs me up. People like Bloomberg have a tendency to overestimate their own appeal because in wealthy coastal circles, social liberalism and fiscal moderation/conservatism is the default, and Bloomberg is an absolute provincial – when you've got a billion dollars, you've got no reason to leave your social circles. But study after study has shown that only four percent of Americans are socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Many, many more are fiscally liberal and socially conservative – think about how much more Trump's legions of supporters care about hurting immigrants, trans people, etc. than they do about the deficit. His ideology is what those with power assume Americans want, not what studies have shown that Americans actually want. (Incidentally, this is why I think a further-left candidate has a much better chance to beat Trump, numbers-wise, and the actual policies Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would enact are moot unless they've got a Senate supermajority anyway; it's really all about getting Trump out of office.)
Post a Comment
Most importantly, though, I genuinely don't think he can beat Trump, and the data backs me up. People like Bloomberg have a tendency to overestimate their own appeal because in wealthy coastal circles, social liberalism and fiscal moderation/conservatism is the default, and Bloomberg is an absolute provincial – when you've got a billion dollars, you've got no reason to leave your social circles. But study after study has shown that only four percent of Americans are socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Many, many more are fiscally liberal and socially conservative – think about how much more Trump's legions of supporters care about hurting immigrants, trans people, etc. than they do about the deficit. His ideology is what those with power assume Americans want, not what studies have shown that Americans actually want. (Incidentally, this is why I think a further-left candidate has a much better chance to beat Trump, numbers-wise, and the actual policies Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would enact are moot unless they've got a Senate supermajority anyway; it's really all about getting Trump out of office.)
<< Home
