Thursday, November 09, 2017
Political Mayhem Thursday: A Commitment to Ghosts
This week I was on a plane sitting next to a guy in a Liberty University sweatshirt. He was coming back from a hunting trip, and he was a talker.
I was reading the paper. He looked over my shoulder (at no story in particular) and said: "It's just terrible, all the crime. I can't believe how bad it's gotten."
Perhaps, I thought, he was referring to the horrible church shooting in Texas, but he assured me it wasn't that when I asked if that was what he was talking about. "I just mean the robberies and murders and rapes. It's out of control." (This is kind of a Fox News trope).
It was a pretty typical comment these days, but it is also completely wrong. Even with a recent slight uptick in some areas, crime is much lower than it was ten and fifteen years ago. Here is a Gallup chart comparing the actual violent crime rate (bottom line) with what people think the crime rate is (upper line):
I was reading the paper. He looked over my shoulder (at no story in particular) and said: "It's just terrible, all the crime. I can't believe how bad it's gotten."
Perhaps, I thought, he was referring to the horrible church shooting in Texas, but he assured me it wasn't that when I asked if that was what he was talking about. "I just mean the robberies and murders and rapes. It's out of control." (This is kind of a Fox News trope).
It was a pretty typical comment these days, but it is also completely wrong. Even with a recent slight uptick in some areas, crime is much lower than it was ten and fifteen years ago. Here is a Gallup chart comparing the actual violent crime rate (bottom line) with what people think the crime rate is (upper line):
So, I told the guy that--I explained that I was a person who studies crime for a living, and that the crime rate had gone down sharply in the past few decades.
He didn't quite... take it in. Instead, he went on to explain the crime rate he was imagining: "It's because of the breakdown in the family. You've got these kids, they have one parent or no parent, and what do you expect?"
I was a little baffled, but I went back to what I knew-- that the crime rate actually was getting better, not worse. There was no crime epidemic to explain. He kind of nodded, and went back to doing something on an iPad.
Then, about ten minutes later, he leaned over: "But really, it's the fact there is no dads. That's why we are getting all these murders."
I wish this were an isolated incident, but it isn't. It seems that crime and immigration are two "problems" that are politically propping up an entire political party right now. But... how much longer does that work, with the Republicans in power? Will they be able to come up with a new playbook?
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Wow... and isn't it a shame that as a college student he isn't willing to really listen to you. My mind was so open to ideas and thoughts from all directions at that time of my life. I am beginning to think there is a whole culture of programmed people like the Borg. They must think as a collective and can't even process a deviation to the thought process.
More bothersome as he showed little interest in learning more in a non-threatening environment. I hope he is happy in his bubble.
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