Thursday, June 02, 2016

 

Political Mayhem Thursday: What WOULD it take to knock down the Trump candidacy?

If nothing else, Donald Trump's campaign for president has been remarkably unaffected by what seems to be bad news. With weekly regularity, news outlets reported that Trump's chance were certain to be doomed by a gaffe or horrifying outburst of one kind or another. Most recently, Trump's failure to pass along money to veteran's groups and the facts emerging about Trump University seem to have not mattered, either.

This leaves me with two questions:

1)  Why is Trump bulletproof?
2)  What WOULD it take to tank his candidacy?

Comments:
Caveat: When it comes to Trump (and a lot of other things--probably most things), I am an idiot who basically knows nothing.

1. I have a new understanding of Trump (not an original thought but a new understanding). Trump is merely a vessel. If you are convinced that the current trajectory is unsustainable, Trump is the only other option. Back when there were lots of viable options (for me) in the GOP primary, I kept thinking why would we pick this idiot? But now that he is running against Hillary, I am painfully aware that he is horrible in every way and will clearly set new lows of vulgarity for the presidency (forever desecrating the legacy of George Washington), but I am also aware that he is the only alternative to an unsustainable and tragic trajectory. Granted, he may be an even quicker path to total destruction. But he is a different path--and not a continuation of the current path. So, here's my epiphany. Millions of Americans believed this all along because they do not differentiate between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz and John Kasich. They were all the same guy. I saw Jeb and Ted and John as representing very different policy alternatives, but tens of millions of Americans saw them as exactly the same and they want something different--and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are the only two people in this cycle who appear different.

2. I have always had two questions about Trump in the general: 1) will the relentless media onslaught eventually have an impact? They are going to expose him in a way no candidate has ever been exposed before. Will it matter? Not to the supporters described above. But are they enough? No. Actually, they are not. Trump runs the great risk of losing by the exact same proportions as John McCain or Mitt Romney. 2) will Trump find new voters? There are approximately 100 million eligible voters who do not vote in any given cycle. Can Trump motivate any of those people to break their habit of not participating and come out and cast votes. Figuring that some regular GOP voters will never overcome their disgust and just stay home, and a few will go Libertarian, and a few hundred will vote for David French or Bill Kristol, Trump will need to find new voters just to lose as respectably as his hated foil Romney. But, if he could mobilize 20 percent of the disillusioned nonvoters (and this is highly unlikely), he would win by an historic landslide. If he could mobilize 10 percent (and this too is highly unlikely), he could probably pull off a victory.
 
I think that Trump has changed a bit in recent years. He is a megalomaniac who seems not to remember what he said a year ago, a month ago, a week ago, or even five minutes ago. Memory problems is a key diagnostic for brain deterioration, such as Alzheimer's. And he is not as successful as he claims, having made money by building a business up, paying himself fantastic amounts, and, in the process, bankrupting the business, stiffing the other investors and lenders!

His whole life is a charade, much like his TV show.

I am not sure there is a worse choice for president of the United States. He is immoral, exploitative, abusive, and seems unable to control his own speech, let alone his emotions. Road rage in a bully pulpit would characterize his time in office if elected.
 
Why is Trump bulletproof?
It has to do with him being a narcissist and egomaniac. It comes from his mastery of reality television. He understands the media and how to manipulate them even when they are trying not to be "used". The press conference yesterday was a perfect example. The press had legitimate questions about the donations to military organizations and whether those donations had been made. At the end of the day the news was about him calling reporters sleazy and not about the donations to veterans. What was missed is that he got caught not making the donations and was writing the checks yesterday while the press conference was in process.

I like Waco Friends reference to his life being a charade. I will take it one further and bet that his life is a giant Ponzi scheme. Someone just needs to find the card that will make the whole thing tumble. Let's just hope it happens before the November election.
 
WF-- I think you are right about the disillusioned voters. And that might happen.
 
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