Thursday, March 10, 2016

 

Political Mayhem Thursday: The Razor Lays Odds on Each Candidate's Chances!


With both races still in play, who is leading overall? The Razor makes some uneducated guesses:

Clinton: 51% chance of being elected president

To become president, Hillary Clinton must do two things. First, she must defeat Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Second she must beat a Republican candidate in November. The first of these may prove to be the more difficult, as Sanders came back to life by winning Michigan this week.  Still, Sanders faces an uphill battle, largely because of the anti-democratic force of superdelegates who were pledged to Clinton months ago. Given the battering the Republican party has inflicted on itself, it is hard not to see Clinton as the favorite against any of the Republicans.

Trump: 19% chance of being elected president

Trump had a good week, and is by all accounts the favorite to win the Republican nomination. The most probably way he would lose the nomination is through a convention battle-- an event that is still a very real possibility. In a general election, though, his negatives would overwhelm his chances.

Sanders: 18% chance of being elected president

Hillary Clinton is likely a much tougher challenge for Sanders than Rubio, Trump, or Cruz would be. Kasich, though, because of his relatively moderate views and experience, would be a bigger challenge. Sanders still has a chance to get past Clinton-- and if he does, it will be a very interesting fall!

Kasich: 6% chance of being elected president

I'm stumped as to why Republicans didn't flock to this guy as an alternative to Trump. At a brokered convention, though, he would be able to argue that he fought the fight, and in a general election would emerge as a compelling figure.

Paul Ryan: 3% chance of being elected president

Ryan may well emerge from a brokered convention. If he does, he could be a formidable opponent to either Clinton or Sanders.
 
Ted Cruz: 2% chance of being elected president

His colleagues can't stand him. He appeals to a narrow band of very conservative voters. He is unlikely to be chosen in a brokered convention, and he is very unlikely to avoid that by racking up enough delegates to win outright. In a general election, he would be blown out like Goldwater.

Marco Rubio: 1% chance of being elected president

What a terrible week for him-- he received no delegates at all in the four contests on Tuesday. So, forget it. His only chance is to win Florida and then, for some reason, catch fire. Not likely. 

Comments:
What about my guy, Vermin Supreme, the guy with the boot on his head?
 
Paul Ryan? How does any candidate come out of a brokered convention with any scrap of legitimacy in the general? Someone who cannot come close to winning the popular vote in their own party can somehow win the general? I like Ryan, and I think he is the Republicans' most likable face by far, but that just won him the tallest midget prize. We Republicans (yes, still my party) just need to resign ourselves to Trump or no Republican president in the next 20 years.
 
Paul Ryan? How does any candidate come out of a brokered convention with any scrap of legitimacy in the general? Someone who cannot come close to winning the popular vote in their own party can somehow win the general? I like Ryan, and I think he is the Republicans' most likable face by far, but that just won him the tallest midget prize. We Republicans (yes, still my party) just need to resign ourselves to Trump or no Republican president in the next 20 years.
 
Kasich has something else going for him. In addition to experience in Congress and as a Governor, he is the only sane person still vying for the Republican nomination.
 
1. I think there is a mathematical fallacy in here in that all these numbers don't really need to add up to 100. For example, you could say Hillary is 50-50, Trump is 50-50, Cruz has a 25-percent chance, Bernie 20-percent, Kasich 20-percent, Ryan 20-percent, and Rubio no chance, and it could still make perfect mathematical sense. But, then again, I am a math illiterate.

2. I think there is a high-percentage chance that we will be able to offer some fairly concrete analysis regarding the Republican nomination come next Wednesday morning.

3. For all the craziness in the GOP, the fact that Bernie (no matter how much he wins) "can't win" is perhaps the craziest dynamic I have ever seen in presidential election politics.


 
I would give Hillary 70-80 percent. But the guru, in political science, is Alan Abramowitz. We patiently await his call.
 
WF-- I am no math expert either, but by my count it adds up to 100....
 
Oh, wait-- you are saying they don't NEED to add up to 100, not that they don't (I panicked). But I also feel that they do need to add up to 100 if it is to make sense. Unless we elect multiple presidents (or consider elections after 2016), it seems that there is a zero-sum element to it all, since only one gets to win.
 
As I say, I am no mathematician, but I don't think that is how probabilities work. But that is only a side point. Either way, I get what you're saying.
 
My 12-year-old son loves Vermin Supreme!
 
Hillary has nothing foreseeable in her way now to become our next president. At least foreseeable to me. Many vested citizens see her personal email activity as a problem.
To date there has been no evidence of classified material that was placed on her drive that was classified at that time. Even so, all material came from sources that knew her email was private and she would assume knew were unclassified. She will not be held responsible. This will not stop the attacks.
The rich lode of gullible folks in our country today seem to buy into any story handed them. Hillary's fate will be determined by the number of suckers who will buy anything that the Donald sells them. I don't think we are the United Suckers of America yet,
but I am not sure, so, Hillary 80% Donald 20% others 0%.


 
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