Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Hillary Clinton is back
On Sunday, Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy for president by releasing this video. It announces not only her candidacy, but what will be the principle theme of her run: prosperity for the middle class. The images and stories chosen for the video aren't accidental; they are the product of thorough study. It's very well done.
I have friends on every side of the Hillary Clinton candidacy, from fervent supporters to stern opponents. Those on the extreme puzzle me a little, since it seems likely that Clinton would be a centrist like her husband was a the end of his term.
No one I know is as familiar with the Clintons as Ron Fournier, who has followed them as a member of the press since they were in Arkansas. I was fascinated by his piece in yesterday's National Journal, titled Of Two Minds on Hillary Clinton. Here is how that dead-on piece begins:
Nearly four of every 10 Americans say they "definitely" won't vote for Hillary Clinton if she wins the Democratic nomination, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll, roughly the same number (35 percent) who "definitely" or "probably" will support her. That leaves 25 percent who "might or might not voter for her."
Undecided. Up for grabs. On the fence. Whatever cliché you assign to it, I'm part of the one-fourth coalition—millions of Americans who, despite everything we know about Clinton (strike that: because of everything we know about her), are of two minds.
Mind 1: Outside the public eye, she seems funny, warm, smart, vulnerable, and authentic. An Everywoman. When will she show America the real Hillary?
Mind 2: The public eye is the only one we've got. What it sees is forced and guarded, and there's that gnawing sense of entitlement exhibited in her paid speeches, conflicts of interest, and email shenanigans. A pol. What if this is the real Hillary?
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I would also recommend this related insightful analysis: http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/hillary-can-be-beat-20150411
It is early in the season, of course, but this is the best launch so far in terms of effectiveness and tight political stagecraft: http://www.c-span.org/video/?325251-1/senator-marco-rubio-rfl-presidential-campaign-announcement
Makes great use of this fellow's prodigious political talents.
Great Quote: "Yesterday a leader from yesterday began a campaign for president that promised to take us back to yesterday. But yesterday is over."
Makes great use of this fellow's prodigious political talents.
Great Quote: "Yesterday a leader from yesterday began a campaign for president that promised to take us back to yesterday. But yesterday is over."
Friends in Arkansas (retired very successful HVAC distributor for major brand) were huge financial supporters and more than acquaintances of the Clintons when Mr. Clinton was governor and during early years of his presidency. Since then they have cooled considerably,and will almost surely vote Republican, but for what reasons I cannot tell.
My own view is that we can do better, but from the Demo side, probably worse. She seems to have the brevity genes her husband lacked, all of his slickness, less of his charm.
She will do well among young women, most of whom are single issue voters. The LGBT vote is in the bag. The black vote is sewed up.
We'll see.
My own view is that we can do better, but from the Demo side, probably worse. She seems to have the brevity genes her husband lacked, all of his slickness, less of his charm.
She will do well among young women, most of whom are single issue voters. The LGBT vote is in the bag. The black vote is sewed up.
We'll see.
# posted by 
: 10:12 AM
: 10:12 AM
These are strange times. We have serious problems to discuss and disinterested uninformed voters who don't want to know.
No one can run on solving our problems because they would have to ask for the voters to be part of the solutions. So they don't offer any ideas. So far everyone is running on the fact that they aren't the other guy.
There is a stale smell surrounding all the candidates. It's a good time to turn off the noise until the next person comes along with the ability to wake us up. Maybe she is here but understands the country isn't ready.
As a nation we seem to prefer policies that lead us into a downward slide rather than the policies used on the way back up.
Maybe because less is asked of us on a downward slope.
No one can run on solving our problems because they would have to ask for the voters to be part of the solutions. So they don't offer any ideas. So far everyone is running on the fact that they aren't the other guy.
There is a stale smell surrounding all the candidates. It's a good time to turn off the noise until the next person comes along with the ability to wake us up. Maybe she is here but understands the country isn't ready.
As a nation we seem to prefer policies that lead us into a downward slide rather than the policies used on the way back up.
Maybe because less is asked of us on a downward slope.
To many people I talk to, it's kinda depressing to consider a Clinton v. Bush race.
WF, I don't think Rubio is going to get very far… not because of merits, but because Jeb Bush stands in the way of his access to money and the levers of power.
WF, I don't think Rubio is going to get very far… not because of merits, but because Jeb Bush stands in the way of his access to money and the levers of power.
Mark--Rubio has some real obstacles in getting the nomination--but he would be a marvelous candidate in the general (I can see him hitting 52 or 53 percent against Hillary). You are probably right on the money--but let's see what his fundraising looks like this week. I am hearing that there is actually lots of money to go around--and there may be some folks who are willing to bet on a candidate with Rubio's impressive skill set.
PS It seems to me that Marco Rubio's biggest problem is the skepticism he created within the conservative base over his support for the Senate immigration bill.
WF-- My own hunch is that the big-time Republican funders learned something from 2012, when they funded everyone for too long and the divisiveness of the primary hurt Romney in the general election (or so some perceive-- that is a hard thing to measure).
Of course, this is a stronger group of major Republican candidates-- all Senators or governors-- than the last go-round, when you had Cain leading for a while, Gingrich in the mix late, and Bachman drawing attention early.
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Of course, this is a stronger group of major Republican candidates-- all Senators or governors-- than the last go-round, when you had Cain leading for a while, Gingrich in the mix late, and Bachman drawing attention early.
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