Osler's Razor

I predict a very narrow Obama win. He will lose Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, but get Pennsylvania, and that will be enough.
 

McCain will stitch together Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and NC to win by a sliver. Maybe not the popular vote, though.
 

I make no prediction.
I don't trust POLLS!

We will be eating deep dish Chicago style pizza for dinner with a healthy dose of Barack-oli.
 

Obama is going to surprise everyone and take the blue states plus Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, North Car., Virginia, Georgia, and Colorado.
 

George Will wrote a very interesting piece regarding the temperments of the two candidates a month or so ago. To sum it up:
Obama, as the prof mentions, is a thoughtful and cautious person. McCain is prone to episodes of rash decision-making. He concluded by saying that Obama managing well while building experience is more likely than McCain managing to control his temper.

Whatever the result, let's all be happy that this thing is ending.
 

You will all be happy to know that I voted for one Democrat on my ballot.

Election day always makes me proud to be an American. Even though my guy is going to lose I'm still proud that I live in the greatest democracy man has ever known. The only other country I would ever want to live in is Iceland, because the people there actually believe in elves and fairies. How can that not be a good time!!

God bless the next president, whomever he shall be.

So, when do you guys want to start arguing about the midterm elections? Only two years away!!
 

I'm hoping against hope that McCain can pull it out, but I doubt it.

George Will really hates McCain. Part of it relates to McCain Feingold, which Will sees as an affront to the 1st Amendment. At this year's American Conservative Union meeting, George Will said that a true conservative (meaning himself and those that buy into what he has to say) can be defined by who he or she would have supported in the 1912 election and the correct answer was Wm. Howard Taft. George Will has NO USE for Teddy Roosevelt -- who is, of course, one of John McCain's heroes.

I think there's also an element of jealous nerd v. testosterone laden jock.

Anyhow, if McCain doesn't win, I'd prefer to see an Obama blowout landslide so that he can operate with a mandate. If he's sucessful, more power to him. But if he's not, he will not be able to fall back on the excuse of "The Republicans stopped me."
 

RRL-- Hear, hear! But, I would disagree with you about Iceland. The place is bankrupt. Scotland, on the other hand, is not only solvent but also believes in fairies and elves. If you can put up with the whole skirt-wearing thing (and IPLawGuy can help you with that), it's a pretty good choice.
 

OOOOh Iplaw DOES have kilt..
 

I predict, statistically, an Obama victory with somewhere plus 10 or minus 5 from 300 electoral votes, with a 5-6 %pt lead in the popular vote. I think that the Democrats will pick up a few seats in Congress, but likely not a supermajority.

In some possible worlds, however, massive upsets happen and a few other states we don't expect to go blue (Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and Texas) do, leading to a landslide. If the latter happens, I will let RRL design a tattoo that I will get on my left bicep. It can even say, "Commie Pinko Hippie Wuss." In fact, I'd like that.
 

I don't know Osler, the Scottish may claim to believe in fairies and elves, but are they really dedicated to the cause. I mean, check out this article:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/elvs25.shtml

They have to make sure roads are built so as not to interfere with Elf dwellings!!! This place is genius. Plus, if they're bankrupt, maybe the dollar will get me farther there. And I looked it up, they have law firms that are hiring!!

By the way, I agree with George Will. McCain/Feingold is an afront to free speech and democracy. And Teddy Roosevelt was a progressive and hardly a conservative (at least in the sense of what that term means today).
 

IPLAWGUY

thanks for your take on George Will. I'm not a regular reader of his stuff, so I appreciate the background. A friend pointed out the article for me to read. And, I'll admit, maybe I liked it because it said something that I wanted to hear.

My reasons for voting Obama are much the same as Osler's. I would add that his race is also a reason to support him. It may be "pie in the sky", but want to see him as president, do a great job representing this country, and inspire a wholesale shift in the perception both within and outside the African-American community.

Is that too much to ask?
 

I was going to say the same thing about Iceland - financial ruin now propped up by the Russians? But then the school district in Whitefish Bay, WI made a real bad investment too.

On the other hand, Scotland has lots of lakes (lochs) and the Lochness Monster. I am told you have to go commando under the kilt!
 

IPLawGuy wears a kilt? As a lawyer?

What kind of blog is this? Democrats bantering with Republicans, men in skirts, Dogs living with cats...
 

I should add that I actually like most of what George Will writes, but his hatred for the McCain Feingold legislation just makes him a little nutty at times. I agree, Roosevelt was no conservative and Taft certainly was. Either one would have been a better choice than Wilson, however!

But Taft was not suited for the Presidency. Not necessarily policy-wise, but tempramentally. Kind of early version of George H.W. Bush. He didn't have the vision thing. And just as following Reagan was hard, so was following TR.

Taft never really wanted the job and did a much better job as Chief Justice.

I'm not really into the whole Elf and Fairy thing. I do like the Scottish countryside, but I'd pick Norway if we're going all Nordic and such. For all of Scotland's charm, it doesn't snow enough for good skiing.

And yes, I have not one, but two kilts. Got 'em from a client.
 

I have voted for McCain. I dissent from your analysis of the Obama policy platform, Professor.
Mr. Walleye, I think it is, respectfully, a horrible reason to vote for someone merely because of their race, and before some interject that others may vote AGAINST Obama because of his race, let me say that is also not a good reason. Policy positions are what matter, in my opinion.
I think that the damage caused by Obama's policy prescriptions are in one respect most dangerous- under his plan, as he trumps, many would see their income taxes reduced, even eliminated- before that sounds like a good idea, think of the philosophical shift- one commentator has stated it thusly (I forget where I read this) "once a majority of the voters pay no income tax, they will be far more cavilier in their support of expanded governmental spending programs.
As to your criminal justice reforms, Professor Osler, I have a radical suggestion- why do we not "wipe the slate clean" for all former convicts after a suitable period of rehabilitation, say 5 years, and restore all of their civil rights. It would seem to me that such a program, which both
1. would reduce recividism (a conservative such as I would applaud the cost savings)
2. would "give people a second chance" (approved by all bleeding-heart liberals)
would thus have broad support.

I find other factors impact how I vote far more that those you based yours on, however, I can respect being a single issue voter.
 

Uh, 5:38, I'm not sure how you turned three very different policy issues into a "single issue."
 

Well said, Mark. I agree with your points, plus a few others you made earlier. I voted for Obama a few days ago.
One small correction to your 2:25 p.m. comment. They believe (really believe) in pixies in Scotland. They're not so big on fairies. We have at least one member of our Sunday School class who will prove it to you, too!
RFDIII
 

Um, George Will has written a number of anti-Obama columns, too. He appears to be an equal opportunity offender!
Tom
P.S. Go Obama!
 

I love Scotland, but pixies? Pixies? I'm not down with that.

Yet again, me and iplawguy agree completely about something, either Taft or Roosevelt would've been better than Wilson!
 

Doesn't Scotland also have Pogues?
 

I thought The Pogues were an Irish band.
 

They just projected that Obama won Scotland on MSNBC.
 

"Obama wins Scotland."

It's things like that which make the Razor my top news source.
 

It's funny that no one here is talking about the war, which may be the biggest reason that many people want the Republicans out.
 

True, it's too bad no one is talking about the war. Rather, I think people were talking about the war until the economy tanked. And ultimately, doesn't it always take a huge economic crisis before this country makes big big change?

BTW I can add evidence to Osler's second reason for supporting Obama, that he will change the world's perception of the US. I just heard a speaker today who said that 93% of the French would vote for Obama--even people who are usually "conservative" within France would vote for Obama.

I know, I know, they're only the French . . . but still.

RRL, you might be happy to know that I actually voted for one Republican today! It was one of two DC Council members, so there would be some dissenting opinion (in what a TV commentator called "the most Democratic place in the universe").

And I agree about the Scots--very cool country. Nice and very funny people (because they have to put up with such horrible weather), good beer, science, legend, beautiful scenery, Sean Connery--they have it all.
 

Clarification- (this is 5:34 anon)
I was inartful in my statements. I guess what I meant to say is that you care about several issues versus voting a so-called party line, Professor Osler. I beg your pardon for my prior statement. I am generally a true single issue voter, and I guess that colors my views of others- I had assumed that your main goal was criminal justice reform, and had neglected to note your other goals listed on the post.
 

This thing is over, so it doesn't really matter, but all I can say is that I will always be proud of doing the opposite of whatever the French would do (surrendering to the Nazis being a good example).

I will also remain confident that I am right as long as I am not in agreement with the French consensus.
 

5:34- No problem.
 

GOD BLESS AMERICA! President Obama!
 

I'm calling the election for Obama
 

TJ, in 2000 you would have been calling it way too early.