Thursday, April 09, 2026
PMT: Was Minneapolis the template for Iran?
Watching events play out in Iran, it is hard (at least from our perspective here in Minnesota) not to see the parallels between what happened with Minneapolis and what is happing in Tehran.
Basically, the pattern is this:
1) Suddenly create a violent "surge"
2) Give only vague or shifting justifications (ie, fraud, violent immigrants/nuclear weapons, regime change, shipping, etc...) for the action
3) Underestimate the resistance
4) Realize that the action is very unpopular
5) Claim a deal has been reached (though it hasn't) and withdraw.
Of course, that last point is still just wishful thinking in Iran at the moments, but you can see it as a real possibility right now with the new cease-fire.
In both actions, the Trump administration acted with confidence that the people would capitulate, and imagined that it would be much more popular that it was.
Certainly, the destruction in Iran has been far different than the destruction here, but that disparity does not undercut the similarities between the justifications for intitial action and withdrawal in both.
