Thursday, March 05, 2026
PMT: What Happens Next?
After days of bombing raids and some scattershot responses by Iran, it appears that the war in the Middle East is going to go on for a while. So... how does it end? Here are some possibilities:
-- It could just peter out. After a while, the US and Israel could declare that they achieved their objectives (an easy thing to do since they haven't done a very good job of describing those objectives) and stop bombing Iran. That would leave some version of the current regime in place, most likely.
-- It could also be that Iran gets carved up. Already, it appears that Kurdish forces armed by the CIA will try to claim land in the Northwest of the country. Other minority groups or regions may claim territory as well. In this scenario, the current regime would remain, but with a smaller footprint.
-- There could be a military effort that actually does cause regime change. This would most likely involve ground troops, and could be a protracted war, even after a new government is installed by the invaders. This brings real dangers of destabilization.
-- Perhaps most scary is that something bad and unexpected happens at a big scale: Say, Russia gets involved on the side of Iran, or Iran uses some of its nuclear material to make and use a "dirty bomb."
Of course, if there is one thing history has proven, it is that we are terrible at predicting what will happen in that part of the world....
