Not so long ago, I didn't think that the 2024 presidential race was going to be close at all-- it appeared that Joe Biden would stumble along, playing into Trump's hands at every turn, until all hope was lost of him.
That changed, of course, with his stepping away. Kamala Harris has managed to pull even with Trump or even a little bit ahead. And I suspect that we will stay right there for the next few months barring any huge development (ie, Kamala Harris saying "Yes, I am a communist," at the debate or Trump driving a monster truck over Taylor Swift several times).
The problem, as several pundits have noted, is that for both sides there is a deep and firm well of committed partisans who could never be convinced to vote for the other side. Trump goes this way and that back and forth on abortion, yet his supporters (even the ones who came to his side because of that issue) don't seem to care anymore. They like him because he is Donald Trump, the person they like.
For Democrats, the common bond is not liking Trump, of course, but what got them close was the fact that Harris will motivate some people to vote who, with Biden in the race, probably wouldn't have voted at all.
It's sad that policy matters so little at this point, but there we are.
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