Thursday, April 13, 2023
PMT: Too early to discuss the 2024 presidential race? Actually, it might be too late
It's only April of 2023-- a year and a half away from the 2024 presidential election. It is not at the top of the news, and people seem to think it is too early to talk about it. I fear that it is too late. Here's why.
It looks like Biden will run. Trump is running. Those two things we know, and that ought to scare us.
For one thing, if it ends up being those two, it will be an ugly, awkward campaign. Trump makes things that way, and Biden has never really run a full campaign-- previously, he has dropped out early and in 2020 the pandemic allowed him to make relatively few appearances. This time around, he won't be able to do that, and having him make a lot of public appearances plays into Trump's hands.
The truth is that Biden isn't very good at public appearances. He tends to appear stiff and (at times) old. There will be gaffes, and Trump will claim they are signs of senility (while the truth is that Biden was a gaffe machine in his 30's).
But Trump can't win, right? Well.... a lot of us thought that in 2016, after the Democrat ran a lackluster campaign that limited appearances.
So what if Trump doesn't win the primary? Then Biden is in even worse shape, because a younger more vigorous Republican free of Trump's baggage will have a very good chance to win.
Democratic challengers to Biden aren't emerging, and that development, going on right now, might be the most important one of all once this is all finished.
