Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Oh, baffling politics!
As we come up on the midterms, prognosticators are becoming more bullish on Republican wins at the national and state levels. Here in Minnesota, the Governor's and Attorney General races are very close, despite the success of the incumbents at, you know, doing their job.
There seem to be three key factors favoring Republicans, and they are all nonsense:
1) The unpopularity of Joe Biden
2) Inflation
3) Crime
Let's start with Joe Biden. If you have been reading this blog, you know I'm not a fan-- he was about my last choice in the primary, and he has failed to meet even my very low expectations on the things I care most about. His clemency policy isn't really a policy at all, just vague signaling that leaves unaffected the 17,000+ people whose petitions sit without any action. BUT... Biden isn't on the ballot.
And inflation? It's laughable to think that inflation is driven by politics, at least in the short term (which is what we are facing). COVID-related supply disruptions, labor shortages, corporate profit-taking, the war in Ukraine and other things beyond our control are creating inflation. In fact, the one action the elected members of the federal government could take that would probably lower inflation would be to increase immigration, to lower labor costs-- but increasing immigration is something Republicans accuse Democrats of doing. And if Republicans had any plan to actually do something about inflation-- if they really thought politicians controlled it-- they would have a plan to do something. But they don't, because realistically they can't. Notably, you know where inflation is really bad? The UK, where conservatives control the government.
Oh, and crime? As I have noted before, it is going down-- way down of late here in Minneapolis. But the press doesn't report that, and people don't know it. At any rate, crime increased in 2020 and 2021 in blue and red cities and states alike, driven by forces bigger than politics.
The irony is that no matter who wins, crime and inflation will probably improve, because that is the way cycles work. But don't tell the politicians that.
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Mark. You are right. However, the Democratic party keeps talking about what they have tried to do and have done. People haven't realized the results yet.
They should have contrasted a future America under a big idea Democratic majority and a morally rudderless Republic party that remains determined to do nothing except to shut the government down.. at a time when the majority of Americans polled agree we need it most.
The GOP filled the void with a vision of our country in the grasp of illegal immigrants stealing everything, our youth under educated, our economy exploding and the socialists taking away our freedom.
They should have contrasted a future America under a big idea Democratic majority and a morally rudderless Republic party that remains determined to do nothing except to shut the government down.. at a time when the majority of Americans polled agree we need it most.
The GOP filled the void with a vision of our country in the grasp of illegal immigrants stealing everything, our youth under educated, our economy exploding and the socialists taking away our freedom.
John . . . well said . . . better messaging and increased visibility in their districts would likely bear more fruit . . .
What frustrates me is the Democratic Party and its candidates failure to "read the room." Like many people I was outraged by the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
But not surprised. This was almost a foregone conclusion once the GOP won the 2016 election. This decision is NOT the motivator so many Democratic politicians thought it was. Anyone motivated to vote based upon opposition to restrictions on abortion was ALREADY MOTIVATED. This decision was not going to garner more than a few thousand votes, and mostly in places where the Democrats were already winning.
Its been crystal clear now for decades that running AGAINST something, anything motivates. Running AGAINST immigrants taking our jobs (a lie, but still effective), against China (despite all the tough moves Biden has made against China) Running AGAINST inflation, high gas prices etc. But based upon what I've read, so many Democrats are allowing themselves to be painted as big government socialists.
Having said that, I don't have many ideas about what to do differently. Thanks to Gerrymandering, we don't have many competitive races here in the Metro DC area. There's one Congressional race in Virginia (7th District - currently held by Abigail Spanberger) which is close. Each side has raised millions and run lots of radio and TV ads. The Republican attack ads are outrageous and disgusting.
But I don't know what works. Newspaper readership drops every day. People get their "news" from unedited internet posts or talk radio and TV. So truth doesn't matter.
Pennsylvania is a sad situation. I get that Fetterman will regain his health and his disability is temporary, but timing is everything. I think he's great, but it probabably would have been best if he had withdrawn from the race and let the Democrats pick a different candidate. I hope he can pull it out, as Dr. Oz is pure evil as far as I can tell.
I think Tim Ryan gets this in Ohio. But he is still losing to a phony populist. I don't really know what he could do differently.
Sadly, the desire for a "strongman" seems to have permeated our society. I've always hated cults of personality in politics and edged away from politicians that had them. But so many of the favored candidates have campaigns built completely on that basis. Their policies are flimsy and foolish, but they make promises and threats and the voters eat it up.
The fact is, the average person WILL benefit from the several legislative victories pushed by Biden and the Democrats, but none of it is magic. And it takes time.
The wealth gap in this country is the biggest problem. But if you try to say that out loud, you look like a socialist.
Not sure what the future holds...
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But not surprised. This was almost a foregone conclusion once the GOP won the 2016 election. This decision is NOT the motivator so many Democratic politicians thought it was. Anyone motivated to vote based upon opposition to restrictions on abortion was ALREADY MOTIVATED. This decision was not going to garner more than a few thousand votes, and mostly in places where the Democrats were already winning.
Its been crystal clear now for decades that running AGAINST something, anything motivates. Running AGAINST immigrants taking our jobs (a lie, but still effective), against China (despite all the tough moves Biden has made against China) Running AGAINST inflation, high gas prices etc. But based upon what I've read, so many Democrats are allowing themselves to be painted as big government socialists.
Having said that, I don't have many ideas about what to do differently. Thanks to Gerrymandering, we don't have many competitive races here in the Metro DC area. There's one Congressional race in Virginia (7th District - currently held by Abigail Spanberger) which is close. Each side has raised millions and run lots of radio and TV ads. The Republican attack ads are outrageous and disgusting.
But I don't know what works. Newspaper readership drops every day. People get their "news" from unedited internet posts or talk radio and TV. So truth doesn't matter.
Pennsylvania is a sad situation. I get that Fetterman will regain his health and his disability is temporary, but timing is everything. I think he's great, but it probabably would have been best if he had withdrawn from the race and let the Democrats pick a different candidate. I hope he can pull it out, as Dr. Oz is pure evil as far as I can tell.
I think Tim Ryan gets this in Ohio. But he is still losing to a phony populist. I don't really know what he could do differently.
Sadly, the desire for a "strongman" seems to have permeated our society. I've always hated cults of personality in politics and edged away from politicians that had them. But so many of the favored candidates have campaigns built completely on that basis. Their policies are flimsy and foolish, but they make promises and threats and the voters eat it up.
The fact is, the average person WILL benefit from the several legislative victories pushed by Biden and the Democrats, but none of it is magic. And it takes time.
The wealth gap in this country is the biggest problem. But if you try to say that out loud, you look like a socialist.
Not sure what the future holds...
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