Tuesday, March 08, 2022
The future of Ukraine
I love maps, and I have always loved maps. As a kid on long car trips I often spent hours in the back of our VW van poring over AAA maps that explained how the world around me fit together. I still keep an atlas close at hand at home to assess locations when they come up in conversation or while writing. It fascinates me that Detroit, for example, is north of both Canada and a bit of Virginia.
Ukraine is in a fascinating in-between place, directly north of Turkey and astride Europe and Asia. It has a neighbor, Transnistria, that isn't really a country, but isn't part of one, either. And it has great national colors.
Of course, it is threatened now with non-existence. The tragedy builds each day, and I find myself checking on the news in a way I haven't done since the early months of the Trump administration.
I think there are three possible outcomes based on the current situation:
1) Russia conquers all of Ukraine and subjugates it by installing a friendly government or even by annexing it. If it chooses the former, that friendly government will face instant and overwhelming protest, meaning that if it is to last Russia would have to keep troops there in large number, with consistent losses.
2) A peace deal is brokered that divides up Ukraine in some way-- say, by having it split into pro-Russian nation or Russian territory in the East, and Ukraine in the West. This, too, might be unstable-- and would reward Russian aggression.
3) Ukraine manages to make the war so costly that Russia retreats, claiming some kind of symbolic victory. This would be the best result for the world order-- but also seems to be the least likely.
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