Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Crime was down in 2020 in the US
Overall, the rate of major crimes being committed went down last year compared to 2019. Good news!
Of course, that's not the whole story. The rate of the most serious crimes, manslaughter and murder, were way up nationally, by nearly 30%-- and 77% of homicides involved a gun. That's a terrible trend, and one that needs to be addressed.
The problem is, how do we address it? The first step is to understand what caused the big increase, and everything I am hearing sure sounds like guessing. Some claim that it is because the police were "defunded," but that's nonsense-- police budgets went up overall, and any decreases after the killing of George Floyd would not have taken significant effect in the calendar year 2020 (even if they existed).
I worry that instead of figuring out what is causing this and then addressing it, we will jump right to the same problematic solutions as in the past: mandatory minimum sentences, more stop and frisk, etc. etc. etc. That's a waste of money and humanity.
Certainly, there was instability in 2020-- in the economy, in our politics, in the daily rhythms of our lives. As things stabilize, one would hope that violence decreases.
And then there is the new availability of guns, after a record gun-buying spree during and just before the pandemic. More guns mean that more crimes that would have been assaults become murders, as more lethal weapons enter the equation.
It could be-- probably will be-- that violent crime goes back down after the pandemic. If it doesn't, there needs to be some serious study of causes before action is taken.
[The photo above is by Gordon Parks, taken in Chicago in 1957]
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So many questions...here are some of the thoughts that have gone through my mind.
1. The pandemic seems like it has to be at least a major contributing factor. So far, murders are up in 2021, but the increase seems to be slowing from 2020. For example, Philadelphia had about a 40% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020. Homicides are up again this year, but it's *only* an 18% increase. New York City saw an almost 47% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020, but murders are down 2.5% this year. Murders are down almost 24% in Kansas City in 2021. We spent most of 2020 shut down, but things have started to open back up and get a bit closer back to "normal" this year. I know it's correlation and not causation, but a cataclysmic event like the pandemic seems like it has to factor in.
2. Police retirements/resignations. I know Seattle and Minneapolis have seen a slew of retirements and resignations in their respective police departments, and the New York Times reported in June 2021 that other departments across the country are also facing significant shortages. Fewer officers on the street, to me, means criminals are emboldened, as the likelihood of being caught decreases. Also, which officers are leaving and why? Is it the skull-crackers and knuckle-draggers (the Bob Kroll and Derek Chauvin types come to mind) who are leaving because they're finally being held accountable for abusing their authority? Is it the good officers who have just had enough?
3. Is there something to be said for mandatory minimum sentences for violent crimes and illegal firearms possession? I don't care about locking up most low-level offenders (think drug and property crimes), but for the shooters or the people possessing an illegal firearm (especially felons and domestic offenders), isn't there an argument that society at large is safer for confining these offenders for a period of years?
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1. The pandemic seems like it has to be at least a major contributing factor. So far, murders are up in 2021, but the increase seems to be slowing from 2020. For example, Philadelphia had about a 40% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020. Homicides are up again this year, but it's *only* an 18% increase. New York City saw an almost 47% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020, but murders are down 2.5% this year. Murders are down almost 24% in Kansas City in 2021. We spent most of 2020 shut down, but things have started to open back up and get a bit closer back to "normal" this year. I know it's correlation and not causation, but a cataclysmic event like the pandemic seems like it has to factor in.
2. Police retirements/resignations. I know Seattle and Minneapolis have seen a slew of retirements and resignations in their respective police departments, and the New York Times reported in June 2021 that other departments across the country are also facing significant shortages. Fewer officers on the street, to me, means criminals are emboldened, as the likelihood of being caught decreases. Also, which officers are leaving and why? Is it the skull-crackers and knuckle-draggers (the Bob Kroll and Derek Chauvin types come to mind) who are leaving because they're finally being held accountable for abusing their authority? Is it the good officers who have just had enough?
3. Is there something to be said for mandatory minimum sentences for violent crimes and illegal firearms possession? I don't care about locking up most low-level offenders (think drug and property crimes), but for the shooters or the people possessing an illegal firearm (especially felons and domestic offenders), isn't there an argument that society at large is safer for confining these offenders for a period of years?
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: 12:51 PM
: 12:51 PM << Home
