Thursday, October 29, 2020
Political Mayhem Thursday: Final Thoughts
This will be the last PMT before the election-- and who knows what we will be reporting next week? Hardly anyone I know is willing to say what they think will happen-- the events of 2016 cast a long shadow.
But I will offer some final thoughts, and I hope you will offer your own in the comments section below.
-- I wish that this campaign had more to do with ideas and policy rather than personality and negativity, on both sides. A central truth that never came out is that this is the first time in memory that we haven't had a conservative running in the general election (given that Trump is not a conservative by the traditional measures of fiscal restraint, international engagement, and support of free markets and free minds). I would like to have seen that unusual dynamic-- a populist vs. a moderate progressive-- play out through an honest discussion of positions. The closest we got was the last debate, and that was pretty late in the game.
-- Biden will probably win. Trump is showing no signs of closing the gap or doing the things he would have to do to catch up, like make a sustained argument based on the pre-covid economy. Instead, he is making a closing argument that centers on personal grievances and boasting. That won't expand his voting pool, and there are few undecideds left anyways.
-- All of this effort is being made to win something less than the gold ring. Whoever is president in January of 2021 is going to face immense challenges and very tough choices. We can fight the coronavirus hard, but at the expense of personal liberties. We can boost the economy, but only by expanding the already-bulging debt.
-- If Biden wins, Republicans will return to being the fervid opposition, denying him anything that might be a victory whenever they can. That will frustrate the Joe Biden who really thinks he can build bipartisan consensus. And if Trump wins, it is likely that he will face a Democrat-controlled Senate and House, who may succumb to the same destructive path of governing by denying the president whatever it is he might want.
-- If you are looking forward to 2021 because you think you won't have to hear about President (or ex-President) Trump, you will be disappointed. Win or lose, he will continue to have a platform and he will use it.
So, what are your final thoughts?
Some have said he will use his presidential experience to return to an apprentice-type show, but I doubt that. An apprentice show requires a much more rigid format than he appears to want -- and it would require him on a set or location shoot at the show's schedule, not his own. I see him wanting a program where he can freely comment on whatever he wants to talk about with the ability to remote in from wherever he chooses to be (Mar-a- Lago, Bedminster, wherever). IMO he's a perfect match for Fox News.
It won't be easy, and we can't afford to fail. I think that we are at the bottom of a deep hole rather than at a dangerous precipice. We have to start the hard work climbing up and out. Exciting times and not to be feared.
For me, the last five years I've felt more pessimistic about my voice being heard by elected officials than when I lived in DC during the Obama administration. Literally I had no representation then, aside from emails to the President on whitehouse.gov, but now that I live in Virginia, reaching out feels even more futile. I'm represented by two powerhouse US Senators (Mark Warner and Tim Kaine), but because the Dems are in the minority and the Senate Republicans are in Trump's thrall, there's near-zero chance my senators can do anything to affect the outcomes of appointments or legislation.
And the Dems' rhetoric--in the House, in the Senate, and in the campaign--has become depressingly party-line, rarely leaving an opening to discuss what's practical. When my elected representatives can't publicly have a real give-and-take with the other side, why should I feel they'd listen to me? It's as if they think we're stupid, and I feel pushed away. Instead, I'm addicted to the stories and to bitching about Trump's latest outbursts and crazy talk. That's just me, of course, but I wonder if it'll be any different if Biden is elected. Will I -- will we--feel more like our voice matters?
: 11:09 AM In the first scenario (which I think is a very real possibility), I think many people will feel the way Amy Garrou feels -- unheard. With the electoral college and the Senate over-representing a minority of the country, many folks will feel that they do not have an equal voice in our democracy. This situation will lead them to take one of two actions -- giving up or turning to violence. Neither is a great choice.
If Biden wins, he'll have an uphill climb as described by John Osler -- I like the hole analogy. Biden and the leaders with whom he surrounds himself will have to teach the nation again that the President and our other elected leaders should serve ALL Americans, not just the ones who voted for them. We used to know that, but we need to remember/learn. I agree that it's exciting to think that if (and it's a big IF IMHO) Biden wins, our country can work towards being the nation that our newest citizens describe in their citizenship oath.
What to expect when the dust clears? More of the same, I fear.
---------------------------
A few interesting facts:
The two Americans who won the most popular votes in the history of presidential elections are Barack Obama (he actually holds first and second place on the list) and Hillary Clinton. A black man and a woman. This fact does not prove we have a helluva country. But I believe we do (and that fact does not disprove it).
When all the 2020 votes are counted Joe Biden will hold the aforementioned title. Ironic, in that he will have waged the least energetic campaign in the modern history of the presidency.
If Biden were to somehow lose, it would mean that 2 out of the top 3 top vote-getters in presidential elections (and 3 out of the top 11) would have never been president based on the electoral college.
<< Home
