Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Here is a toy for election obsessives!
FiveThirtyEight.com is really the place to be for America's election-obsessed population these days (a group that seems to include nearly everyone I know).
They have a great interactive tool right now (you can access it here) that allows you to decide the outcome for a state (or several) and see how that changes the candidates' chances.
If you change nothing, the current likelihoods prevail-- right now, that is Biden with an 87% chance of prevailing, and Trump with 12% (the final 1% covers a tie). BUT, if you just flip Florida for Biden, his chances of winning the race skyrocket to over 99%.
Which means that we could actually have a good idea of who won by late evening one week from today. If Florida is called for Biden (and Florida is a state that usually gets votes in quickly, at least in the broad aggregate), it means he almost certainly is going to win.
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