Osler's Razor

If you are over 30 or so, you probably remember the December, 2000 Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore, which cut short a recount of votes in Florida, giving the election to George W. Bush. Part of that decision was premised on the fact that two different counting methods were used in different Florida counties.

In the opinion, the court included this odd line:

"Our consideration is limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities."

Everyone assumed it was a unique situation that would never come up again. In fact, the Court has not cited to it since. However, that precedent should scare us a little right now.

Imagine this:

The night of the election on November 3, the early returns show a Trump lead, but because mail-in ballots remain to be counted, there is no result announced.

Immediately, Trump sues to stop the counting of ballots, claiming the kind of irregularities cited in Bush v. Gore. Judges he appointed stop the counting in some places, and litigation makes a mess of the whole thing. In the confusion, Trump claims victory, and we never really know what the outcome should have been.

Bush v. Gore was a terrible decision. I think the Justices in the 5-4 majority justified it by imagining that the situation would not arise again. That could turn out to be an error of historic proportions.