Osler's Razor

There is a lot of attention given to the presidential race, but that masks what may be just as important: the race for the US House and Senate.

Before I continue, I do want to note that the horse-race aspect of politics is over-emphasized, and I don't want to exacerbate that here. Also, it isn't just important whether we elect Republicans or Democrats, but what kind of Republican or Democrats we elect. For example, 2018 saw the election of a fascinating group of Democrats in the House who are both moderate and have proven to be highly competent (in the mold of Chet Edwards). This group includes Minnesota's Dean Phillips and California's Katie Porter. Both of them beat incumbent Republicans in districts that lean Republican (or did until 2018). You may have seen Porter questioning testifying witnesses with remarkable clarity (as in this hearing, for example). I'm really encouraged by the rise of these new faces close to the center.

According to the Washington Post, there are 13 Senate races where there is some element of competitiveness. Of those, two involve incumbent Democrats and 11 feature incumbent Republicans:

Alabama (Dem. incumbent)

Arizona (Rep. incumbent)

Colorado (Rep. incumbent)

Georgia (2 Rep. incumbents)

Iowa (Rep. incumbent)

Maine (Rep. incumbent)

Michigan (Dem. incumbent)

Montana (Rep. incumbent)

North Carolina (Rep. incumbent)

South Carolina (Rep. incumbent)

Texas (Rep. incumbent)

Of these, I would be shocked--shocked!--if the challenger wins in Michigan, South Carolina, or Texas, or the incumbent wins in Alabama. I suppose it might happen, but... it would be a leap. 

That leaves Arizona, Colorado, 2 in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina in play, with the Democrats trying to pick up 4 or 5 (provided they lose in Alabama) to take control of the Senate. 

Of those, I find the Maine race particularly interesting. A good case can be made that Susan Collins has served her state well, but she has not adjusted well to the age of Trump, and probably will not survive the image she created by repeatedly being gamed by Trump.  "I think he learned his lesson" may be the epitaph on her political gravestone.

Montana is intriguing, too. Senator Daines and former Governor Bullock (a Democrat) have a lot of overlap in their policy positions. I saw Bullock speak at a tiny cafe in Newton, Iowa during his brief presidential campaign, and my observation as I watched was that the guy clearly belonged in Montana. Which is one reason he is so popular there. 

Georgia? Who knows? It probably will depend on who turns out to vote on that day. But with two seats in play-- and two close races-- the swing is significant. Kelly Loefler, the appointed Senator, has faced strong opposition from the WNBA team she owns, which is, um, not a good look.

In the end, the table slants towards the Democrats.

If they win, we will all be watching what they do with it. Despite the Trump campaign's inane blathering about Biden being captured by the far left, the truth is that Biden is a centrist who longs to forge good law in a bipartisan way. We know that because he acted that way for decades in the Senate, and says (to some derision) that he will do the same as president.  If moderates win their races in places like Montana and North Carolina, he will have allies in the Senate who can help him with those efforts. 

# posted by Mark Osler @ 1:00 AM