Osler's Razor

It's almost here! We are coming to the end of the college basketball season, and things are pretty interesting: lots of surprises, new teams emerging, and a few old stalwarts. Right now, prognosticators seem to be looking to Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State as the number one seeds, despite the fact that three of those four lost last weekend (the fourth, Kansas, beat Baylor). Here are the current rankings:

1	Kansas(62)	24-3	1598	2
2	Baylor(2)	24-2	1532	1
3	Gonzaga	27-2	1442	1
4	Dayton	25-2	1413	1
5	San Diego State	26-1	1287	1
6	Florida State	23-4	1247	2
7	Duke	23-4	1186	1
8	Kentucky	22-5	1130	2
9	Maryland	22-5	1124	2
10	Creighton	22-6	986	5
11	Louisville	23-5	966	-
12	Villanova	21-6	928	-
13	Seton Hall	20-7	842	3
14	Oregon	21-7	653	-
15	Auburn	23-4	643	2
16	Penn State	20-7	618	7
17	BYU	23-7	598	6
18	Iowa	19-8	489	2
19	Michigan	18-9	329	7
20	West Virginia	19-8	313	3
21	Colorado	21-7	291	3
22	Texas Tech	18-9	226	4
23	Ohio State	18-9	210	2
24	Michigan State	18-9	160	2
25	Houston	21-7	102	3

A few observations:

-- It looks like a down year for the ACC. No UNC in the top 25? And defending national champion Virginia is missing, too.

-- Meanwhile, a great year for Western schools not in the Pac-12, like San Diego State, BYU, and Gonzaga.

-- The Big 10 isn't exactly lighting it up, either. When Penn State is about the best shot you've got, things aren't great.