Osler's Razor

I usually disdain the horse-race component of the primaries, but I can't deny that I spend time thinking about what will happen next. So for today I am going to indulge myself and noodle around looking at the most current polling in the Democratic primary race.

First, we have the national polls, which show former VP Joe Biden ahead by ten or eleven points-- significant, but not a commanding lead, especially with so many other contenders in the race. After all, even with that gap, he has only about 30% of potential voters. Here is the most recent national polling from The Economist/YouGov, polled on Jan. 1 and reported at Realclearpolitics.com:

Biden:       29%
Sanders:    19%
Warren:     18%
Buttigieg:    8%
Klobuchar:  4%
Bloomberg: 3%
Yang:          3%
Gabbard:    3%
Steyer:        3%
Booker:      2%

I'm surprised by a few things here. I thought that the millions of dollars spent by Steyer and Bloomberg on media might have allowed them to cut into Biden's lead a bit. If it has, it isn't a significant shift. I'm also surprised that Booker isn't doing better-- he seems like a really strong candidate.

The thing is, too, that the nation does not all vote at once. Early primaries and the Iowa caucuses affect perceptions and mold the way things go forward. Candidates know this-- that's why they put so many resources into the Iowa caucuses and a few other early states. Here is the most recent polling from Iowa, which is very different that the national numbers (this is a Dec. 19 poll out of Iowa State):

Buttigieg:       24%
Sanders:         21%
Warren:          18%
Biden:            15%
Klobuchar:       4%
Booker:            3%
Yang:               3%
Gabbard:         3%
Steyer:             2%
Bloomberg:      0%

Notably, Bloomberg is not putting resources into Iowa. Also, this poll probably does not accurately reflect the standing of Klobuchar, who had a great debate on the day this poll was taken.

Looking forward, one of two things will happen. First, Biden or one of the others will open up a lead that could allow them to accumulate enough delegates for the nomination before the convention.

That doesn't seem likely. Instead, we will probably see an atomization of the field, with Buttigieg, Sanders, and Klobuchar doing well in Iowa, Warren and Sanders in New Hampshire, and Biden in South Carolina. Then we get to Super Tuesday (March 3), and everything goes kablooie, with not enough time for any of them to focus much on target states-- and with California voting that day, it becomes a huge prize up for grabs. That makes the early primaries even more important. All that means, too, that going into the convention the candidates will try to make deals with one another.

Someone might be offered the vice presidency (Buttigieg, Booker).
Someone (or someones) might be offered plum jobs in the Cabinet.
Platform points might come into play.

2020 looks interesting already!