Thursday, November 21, 2019
Political Mayhem Thursday: The Beginning of the End
So, yes, those are actually Donald Trump's notes from today's Helicopter Shouting. I'm not sure what all to make of this. But I'll give it a go.
Here, he is referencing a call he he had with Gordon Sondland, the US Ambassador to the European Union, in which he told Sondland that, well... that he wanted nothing, and that there was no quid pro quo. I guess that Trump sees this as very exculpatory. The problem is that this call was on September 9, the very day that the whistleblower complaint was filed and suddenly we all knew that Trump was thought to have, well... wanted something, and that there was a quid pro quo. I'm not sure that will work, even in all caps.
The truth is that yesterday was significant. One witness (Sondland) testified that he pressed Ukrainian leaders to investigate Joe Biden's son, and that he did so at the direction of the President. A subsequent witness, Pentagon official Laura Cooper, testified that Ukrainian leaders knew as early as July that aid was being withheld by the US. This undercuts a key Trump defense-- that there could be no quid pro quo, because the Ukrainians didn't even know the aid was being threatened.
What's clear now is the following:
1) Through Rudy Giuliani, President Trump withheld aid that Congress had directed to Ukraine.
2) It was made clear to Ukrainian leaders that a White House visit by the Ukrainian leader and resumption of the aid were contingent on the Ukrainians announcing an investigation of Joe Biden and his son.
In short, Trump promised benefits if a foreign power would publicly embarrass a political rival.
That's pretty bad.
From here, it is enough that the House will impeach the President, almost certainly.
However, there is no sign of Republicans defecting from the fold, despite the gathering evidence. In the end, few if any Republican Senators will vote to remove Trump from office unless there is a political shift (which is possible). Why wouldn't they remove the President for this act, which constitutes bribery under federal law? I'd suggest two reasons. First, they fear the Republican base in their own states, which remain deeply loyal to trump. Second, they just don't think the act is worthy of removal from office.
Do you think I am wrong?
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You are not wrong. What is wrong is the quid pro quo chant on every media platform possible. The chant ought to be THE UKRAINIAN AID MONEY WAS NOT SOURCED FROM TRUMP’S RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN FUND. That would be a lot better explained for those of us who hated Latin in school.
No, I don't think you're wrong.
If Trump didn't already have such a horrible record of lying and changing course and humiliating people publicly and basically treating the presidency as his carte-blance, get-out-of-jail-free card -- and using the Treasury as his personal ATM -- then maybe there would be some way in which this quid pro quo wasn't so bad. Of course, if that were the case, he wouldn't have done it in the first place, but still: his actions the last three years in office haven't helped.
The Republicans circling their wagons around him is less drama-filled but more depressing, actually. It's amazing the consistency of the narrative that's emerged and yet they are mute.
If Trump didn't already have such a horrible record of lying and changing course and humiliating people publicly and basically treating the presidency as his carte-blance, get-out-of-jail-free card -- and using the Treasury as his personal ATM -- then maybe there would be some way in which this quid pro quo wasn't so bad. Of course, if that were the case, he wouldn't have done it in the first place, but still: his actions the last three years in office haven't helped.
The Republicans circling their wagons around him is less drama-filled but more depressing, actually. It's amazing the consistency of the narrative that's emerged and yet they are mute.
# posted by 
: 2:57 PM
: 2:57 PM
I don't think you are wrong.
The Clinton defense was it is okay to lie and suborn perjury when it is only about sexual harassment. In the end, I think the Republicans will say none of this really matters when it is about Ukraine. Partisan impeachment worthy, sure, but not nearly big enough to remove. Just move on.
As for the GOP and the base, I firmly believe the vast majority of Republicans in Washington (Mitch McConnell foremost among them) would gladly keep the judges, the deregulation, the historically low unemployment, and swap Mike Pence for Donald Trump in a heartbeat for Election 2020. Take all the good things, ease out the orange-headed madman and ease back in Mattis and Bolton and the Bushies and go about your business. But, what do you do about the 63 million Americans who voted for this fellow? And, more pointedly, what do you do about the 20 or so million who were really serious about him? It is a tough call.
Would be a very tough maneuver. It is generally bad politics to give away one third of your winning coalition. From my point of view, I cannot think of where the GOP would find 20 million replacements.
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The Clinton defense was it is okay to lie and suborn perjury when it is only about sexual harassment. In the end, I think the Republicans will say none of this really matters when it is about Ukraine. Partisan impeachment worthy, sure, but not nearly big enough to remove. Just move on.
As for the GOP and the base, I firmly believe the vast majority of Republicans in Washington (Mitch McConnell foremost among them) would gladly keep the judges, the deregulation, the historically low unemployment, and swap Mike Pence for Donald Trump in a heartbeat for Election 2020. Take all the good things, ease out the orange-headed madman and ease back in Mattis and Bolton and the Bushies and go about your business. But, what do you do about the 63 million Americans who voted for this fellow? And, more pointedly, what do you do about the 20 or so million who were really serious about him? It is a tough call.
Would be a very tough maneuver. It is generally bad politics to give away one third of your winning coalition. From my point of view, I cannot think of where the GOP would find 20 million replacements.
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