Saturday, February 23, 2019
Workers where there is no work + Work where there are no workers
Yesterday IPLawGuy forwarded me a link to an Axios story exploring the problems of the hard-core unemployed in a time of record low unemployment. This jumped out at me:
- And for the first time in the nation's history, big numbers of Americans have stopped moving for work. Even when there are jobs in another city or state, they have been unwilling, for reasons no one has been able to decisively explain, to pick up and start a new life.
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Here's a related story about the declining job market for high school educated men:
https://www.axios.com/young-men-education-workforce-labor-blue-collar-pink-collar-8a9f03a1-9023-4f84-aadc-636c3e3c4dc0.html
Two of the factors cited are 1) the sexual revolution (no longer necessary to get married to find a sex partner(s) so without the responsibilities of marriage, less pressure to work) and 2) drugs and prison. The article mentions addiction, but even those who clean up after prison will always have a black mark on their records. Employers will screen people with criminal records and even past problems with substance abuse out.
https://www.axios.com/young-men-education-workforce-labor-blue-collar-pink-collar-8a9f03a1-9023-4f84-aadc-636c3e3c4dc0.html
Two of the factors cited are 1) the sexual revolution (no longer necessary to get married to find a sex partner(s) so without the responsibilities of marriage, less pressure to work) and 2) drugs and prison. The article mentions addiction, but even those who clean up after prison will always have a black mark on their records. Employers will screen people with criminal records and even past problems with substance abuse out.
Here's my original comments to the Prof., with edits:
Think about it – you’re a 35 year old underemployed, HS grad in rural Ohio, Pennsylvania, WVa, KY, etc., let’s just say Zanesville, Ohio, since it’s on the interstate and I’ve been there recently. You have NO savings. Your house if you own one has ZERO equity. And no one is going to buy it anyway. You own a 10 year old Ford or Toyota. How the heck are you supposed to move to Fairfax County or even Loudoun County, Virginia or suburban Dallas or Hennepin County or even Cuyahoga County outside Cleveland and get a job. No one is going to pay for you to move. And it’s not like you can walk in the door and get hired. Everyone has to go through “a process.” What with all the anti –discrimination, privacy and anti-drug laws employers can’t just hire people off the street. You’ll need two forms of ID and all kinds of other documentation and probably have to take a drug test. The employer has to run a background check, etc. etc. etc. Meanwhile you have to wait...
And besides what skills do you have from working various odd jobs and low level truck driver or warehouse jobs? You’re broke, you can’t afford community college. Nor can your wife (or often Ex-wife or Ex-GF to whom you have to pay child support). Even free classes take time. And then what do you do when you get the certificate
Not that I have any great ideas about to how to fix this. We can throw money at these people, but a lot of them are also mentally and emotionally stuck. Even if you paid them to go to tech school and paid them to move, many wouldn’t do it. CHANGE is hard.
Think about it – you’re a 35 year old underemployed, HS grad in rural Ohio, Pennsylvania, WVa, KY, etc., let’s just say Zanesville, Ohio, since it’s on the interstate and I’ve been there recently. You have NO savings. Your house if you own one has ZERO equity. And no one is going to buy it anyway. You own a 10 year old Ford or Toyota. How the heck are you supposed to move to Fairfax County or even Loudoun County, Virginia or suburban Dallas or Hennepin County or even Cuyahoga County outside Cleveland and get a job. No one is going to pay for you to move. And it’s not like you can walk in the door and get hired. Everyone has to go through “a process.” What with all the anti –discrimination, privacy and anti-drug laws employers can’t just hire people off the street. You’ll need two forms of ID and all kinds of other documentation and probably have to take a drug test. The employer has to run a background check, etc. etc. etc. Meanwhile you have to wait...
And besides what skills do you have from working various odd jobs and low level truck driver or warehouse jobs? You’re broke, you can’t afford community college. Nor can your wife (or often Ex-wife or Ex-GF to whom you have to pay child support). Even free classes take time. And then what do you do when you get the certificate
Not that I have any great ideas about to how to fix this. We can throw money at these people, but a lot of them are also mentally and emotionally stuck. Even if you paid them to go to tech school and paid them to move, many wouldn’t do it. CHANGE is hard.
The easy answer of "retraining" people where there are job losses has turned out to be not great plan for a lot of people....
This is when the Universal Basic Income starts to make sense--along with universal health care, because relatively healthy, childless adults under Medicare age, in states without Medicaid expansion, can't get health insurance if they are unemployed. In Virginia there were 400,000 people in this situation until 2018, when Gov Northam and the General Assembly narrowly passed Medicaid expansion.
There are all kinds of structural reasons that broke, unemployed people can't relocate to a place with better jobs. Another is the credit system: Once you miss payments and your credit rating starts to slip, interest rates go up dramatically and it becomes impossible both to get loans or credit cards even if you somehow have the money to repay them. And not everyone is eligible for unemployment. When someone's financial situation is rock bottom, moving is far out of the realm of possibility.
Interestingly, there have been a few cities recently that are giving thousands of dollars of incentives to attract people to move there . . . somewhere in Oklahoma (Tulsa?), and Vermont, as I recall. But these are competitive; the grants for Oklahoma go people in tech fields.
I don't think a universal basic income is throwing money at people. It would ensure that everyone has some small basis of financial / healthcare security so that they could be in a position to move to better employment or get more education.
There are all kinds of structural reasons that broke, unemployed people can't relocate to a place with better jobs. Another is the credit system: Once you miss payments and your credit rating starts to slip, interest rates go up dramatically and it becomes impossible both to get loans or credit cards even if you somehow have the money to repay them. And not everyone is eligible for unemployment. When someone's financial situation is rock bottom, moving is far out of the realm of possibility.
Interestingly, there have been a few cities recently that are giving thousands of dollars of incentives to attract people to move there . . . somewhere in Oklahoma (Tulsa?), and Vermont, as I recall. But these are competitive; the grants for Oklahoma go people in tech fields.
I don't think a universal basic income is throwing money at people. It would ensure that everyone has some small basis of financial / healthcare security so that they could be in a position to move to better employment or get more education.
There are documented articles from coal states where miners were offered free retraining in their home towns and they turned it down because "I voted for Trump and he promised coal was coming back so I don't need retraining." They stayed on unemployment and welfare. Of course, the jobs haven't come back, like so many of his promises.
There is no incentive to move for work - there is plenty of work on farms, dairies, other agriculture, but people have no incentive to take them. A universal basic income would just make it worse. This is the root of the immigration problem - Americans won't work at available jobs because they don't have to.
Another problem is the current drive to restrict birth control and abortion - people who have no access to low cost, widely available contraception and reproductive health care continue to have children they can't support. This makes moving for jobs, and taking minimum wage jobs impossible. This feeds a vicious cycle of poverty.
Lee
There is no incentive to move for work - there is plenty of work on farms, dairies, other agriculture, but people have no incentive to take them. A universal basic income would just make it worse. This is the root of the immigration problem - Americans won't work at available jobs because they don't have to.
Another problem is the current drive to restrict birth control and abortion - people who have no access to low cost, widely available contraception and reproductive health care continue to have children they can't support. This makes moving for jobs, and taking minimum wage jobs impossible. This feeds a vicious cycle of poverty.
Lee
# posted by 
: 4:39 PM
: 4:39 PM
Lee-- good to see you back here! I think you are probably right about a guaranteed income. I think higher wages are a better way to get people to work.
Lee
You asked for replies, so here goes.
Good ideas so often are rejected because they are misunderstood and then they are easy to attack. A minimum guaranteed annual income was a conservative response to the welfare "give away" state. It required one to be working a minimum number of hours. Public work projects would be made available for those who are able at all levels of work. Work is therapeutic and having all our neighbors living with dignity is a noble goal. There would be no new government bureaucracy formed, as the IRS would carry out the program and the enforcement.
The most important element is the enforcement of the rules. We tend not to fund enforcement. This is a super cheap solution and includes a very real incentive to work.Unfortunately this idea lacks appeal because it doesn't open enough new doors to private profiteering.
Mark
We have to return to paying real money for real work. Those whose work abilities and wages are less can still experience a reasonable quality of life with a reverse income tax that brings them up to a predetermined level of income. By adding a guaranteed universal health care system to a guaranteed minimum wage we will be looking for places to spend all the money we will save. Maybe we could invest in reentry programs for prisoners.
Please respond.
You asked for replies, so here goes.
Good ideas so often are rejected because they are misunderstood and then they are easy to attack. A minimum guaranteed annual income was a conservative response to the welfare "give away" state. It required one to be working a minimum number of hours. Public work projects would be made available for those who are able at all levels of work. Work is therapeutic and having all our neighbors living with dignity is a noble goal. There would be no new government bureaucracy formed, as the IRS would carry out the program and the enforcement.
The most important element is the enforcement of the rules. We tend not to fund enforcement. This is a super cheap solution and includes a very real incentive to work.Unfortunately this idea lacks appeal because it doesn't open enough new doors to private profiteering.
Mark
We have to return to paying real money for real work. Those whose work abilities and wages are less can still experience a reasonable quality of life with a reverse income tax that brings them up to a predetermined level of income. By adding a guaranteed universal health care system to a guaranteed minimum wage we will be looking for places to spend all the money we will save. Maybe we could invest in reentry programs for prisoners.
Please respond.
# posted by : 9:43 AM
: 9:43 AM
Lee
Often good ideas are discarded because they are not explained very well A guaranteed minimum income was a conservative response to degrading welfare ( hand outs). They liked that it was a super cheap solution to a lot of problems and didn't create a new government bureaucracy. The IRS would need some additional funding for enforcement. A minimum number of hours of work would be required to receive a supplemental check from the IRS to assure that those at all skill levels would have a decent income.
Public work programs would be available for those unable to get private employment. Work is therapeutic and having our neighbors have a chance to live with dignity is a noble goal. For many there is today little incentive to work when one still can't afford a decent life. Many would avoid a destructive spiral of debt. Incentives to work are built into this program. This idea has lacked support because it lacks a lot opportunities for private profiteering. Please respond.
Mark
You are right that higher wages are needed. We should return to real pay for real work. There will always be private employers leaving town and uneven employee skill sets. If we have a guaranteed minimum annual wage and add in universal health care we will be looking for a place to spend the trillions of dollars we would save. Maybe we could invest in some reentry programs for prisoners.
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Often good ideas are discarded because they are not explained very well A guaranteed minimum income was a conservative response to degrading welfare ( hand outs). They liked that it was a super cheap solution to a lot of problems and didn't create a new government bureaucracy. The IRS would need some additional funding for enforcement. A minimum number of hours of work would be required to receive a supplemental check from the IRS to assure that those at all skill levels would have a decent income.
Public work programs would be available for those unable to get private employment. Work is therapeutic and having our neighbors have a chance to live with dignity is a noble goal. For many there is today little incentive to work when one still can't afford a decent life. Many would avoid a destructive spiral of debt. Incentives to work are built into this program. This idea has lacked support because it lacks a lot opportunities for private profiteering. Please respond.
Mark
You are right that higher wages are needed. We should return to real pay for real work. There will always be private employers leaving town and uneven employee skill sets. If we have a guaranteed minimum annual wage and add in universal health care we will be looking for a place to spend the trillions of dollars we would save. Maybe we could invest in some reentry programs for prisoners.
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