Osler's Razor

As we move ever closer to November, the mid-term elections loom larger than usual this year. That's because of what a new House majority could do: impeach the president. Remember that the Constitution provides a mechanism for trying and removing high officials: They are charged (or "impeached") by the House, and then tried in Senate. It takes a simple majority to charge an official in the House, but 2/3rds of the Senate to convict. 2/3rds is a tough standard.

That means that it the House flips, it could well vote to impeach the president, particularly if the Mueller report recommends that course and is made available to the House by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

Here is one scenario that many people are thinking through:

-- The House flips in November
-- Robert Mueller issues a report recommending impeachment
-- Rod Rosenstein forwards the report to the House for their consideration
-- The House investigates, then votes to impeach
-- At trial in the Senate, a majority of senators but fewer than 2/3rds vote to convict, meaning that no conviction is obtained.
-- In the 2020 election, President Trump turns this to his advantage, asserting that he was persecuted and survived.

Given that... the Democrats may not choose to impeach in the first place, even if Mueller says charges are substantiated in his report.