Tuesday, October 24, 2017
What's coming
People often ask me the same question, since I am in criminal law: "Do you think Donald Trump will last his full term?"
It's a pretty good question. There has not been a president in my lifetime who seemed to have such a precarious perch on the position. There are a number of things that could end Trump's term early. I list them here in order of probability:
1) Resignation
It seems clear that Trump does not like this job. He liked the campaigning, with the adoring crowds and the applause, but that is not much of what he gets to do these days. I suspect that Robert Mueller is going to indict at least some of his friends and family, and I'm not sure he can handle that. The politician he resembles most closely is Sarah Palin, and she quit early as Governor of Alaska. I can see Trump taking the same path.
2) Impeachment
For many Republicans in Congress, Mike Pence is the President that they want. While impeachment would enrage Trump devotees in the Republican base, if the Mueller investigation reveals significant wrongdoing it is a possibility. He probably would resign before proceedings were completed, though.
3) Death
President Trump does not seem like a healthy man. I hope this does not happen, but he seems to be a much more of a cardiac risk than his two immediate predecessors.
What do you think the odds are of any or all of these?
It's a pretty good question. There has not been a president in my lifetime who seemed to have such a precarious perch on the position. There are a number of things that could end Trump's term early. I list them here in order of probability:
1) Resignation
It seems clear that Trump does not like this job. He liked the campaigning, with the adoring crowds and the applause, but that is not much of what he gets to do these days. I suspect that Robert Mueller is going to indict at least some of his friends and family, and I'm not sure he can handle that. The politician he resembles most closely is Sarah Palin, and she quit early as Governor of Alaska. I can see Trump taking the same path.
2) Impeachment
For many Republicans in Congress, Mike Pence is the President that they want. While impeachment would enrage Trump devotees in the Republican base, if the Mueller investigation reveals significant wrongdoing it is a possibility. He probably would resign before proceedings were completed, though.
3) Death
President Trump does not seem like a healthy man. I hope this does not happen, but he seems to be a much more of a cardiac risk than his two immediate predecessors.
What do you think the odds are of any or all of these?
Comments:
<< Home
I believe your three options are reasonable with #3 having a higher probability than #1 or #2. Some Presidents have VP's that people dislike or fear having in power even more. Dick Cheney was one and Mike Pence with his social and religious beliefs put him up on equal footing with Cheney.
I don't see him quitting voluntarily quitting. Perhaps a white jacket and men in white coats would be required. I do see Mueller's investigation bringing indictments to many involved with his campaign because of the greed and desire to impress 45 and win favor and try to briefly enter his inner circle. We saw the results of these acrobatics in living color with "the Mouch".
I don't see him quitting voluntarily quitting. Perhaps a white jacket and men in white coats would be required. I do see Mueller's investigation bringing indictments to many involved with his campaign because of the greed and desire to impress 45 and win favor and try to briefly enter his inner circle. We saw the results of these acrobatics in living color with "the Mouch".
I am hoping Donald Trump stays in office while the Republicans control Congress. His incompetency is the only thing that stands in the way of the disaster of having the current Republican party policies become law, carried out by his cabinet. VP Pence would bring his extreme social agenda to reality aided by the weak kneed congress.
I hope that they take some of Donald's options away from him so that we will be safer until he leaves office.
After 2018, Trump hopefully will be unnecessary to screw up the processes for the next two years, if the country sees the threat and throw the spineless bums out, Mike Pence and gang could be contained.
I hope that they take some of Donald's options away from him so that we will be safer until he leaves office.
After 2018, Trump hopefully will be unnecessary to screw up the processes for the next two years, if the country sees the threat and throw the spineless bums out, Mike Pence and gang could be contained.
I think he will serve his term but not run again It is too hard to get 2/3 of the Senate to agree to anything, much less something so damaging to their own party. Or, if he tries to run again, he will not be nominated by his party. They will go with Pence, and hold him out as a rational man who can do the things Trump promised but was unable to do.
If he does leave office early, I think it will be through resignation for undisclosed "health" reasons. He is a man who likes a teaser, something to make you tune in next week. What better way to keep people entertained yet unfocused on issues than "Trump Health Watch 2018?" (You can see he Fox News infographic now can't you?)
He can escape something he doesn't seem to like while putting blame squarely on something else rather than his lack of political skill or intelligence. It's the perfect scapegoat.
He can then live on as an ex-president, filling Twitter with whatever baseless nonsense he feels will raise himself up. "I would have been the best president of all time ever if it wasn't for this horrible health condition that I won't disclose. But it would have killed a lesser man dead, believe me."
If he does leave office early, I think it will be through resignation for undisclosed "health" reasons. He is a man who likes a teaser, something to make you tune in next week. What better way to keep people entertained yet unfocused on issues than "Trump Health Watch 2018?" (You can see he Fox News infographic now can't you?)
He can escape something he doesn't seem to like while putting blame squarely on something else rather than his lack of political skill or intelligence. It's the perfect scapegoat.
He can then live on as an ex-president, filling Twitter with whatever baseless nonsense he feels will raise himself up. "I would have been the best president of all time ever if it wasn't for this horrible health condition that I won't disclose. But it would have killed a lesser man dead, believe me."
Gavin love it - "Trump Health Watch 2018". Could he possibly develop bone spurs in his fingers that will prevent him from tweeting? But as you said, we will never know.
It will become a bigger mystery than "who really shot JFK" or what did Al Capone keep in his vault. I see future investigative reports by Geraldo Rivera.
It will become a bigger mystery than "who really shot JFK" or what did Al Capone keep in his vault. I see future investigative reports by Geraldo Rivera.
If we could convince CNN to go two weeks without mentioning Trump, the man would resign by day 13. It would be an ugly two weeks--the same way a toddler's tantrum continues to escalate until they just give up and fall asleep--but if Kelly, Mattis, and McMaster could just play keep away with the nuclear football, it would be worth it. CNN could never do it though...
Oh wow . . . all these are great thought experiments! I love the idea of CNN staying away for two weeks, and the notion of DJT resigning for undisclosed health reasons.
I'm always surprised when media--more often these days, it seems--talk about eight years of Trump as if it's a given he'd run again. If he does make it through four years, I can't imagine 1) that he'd want to run again, or 2) that he'd get nominated. Media do seem to have jumped on the scaremongering bandwagon in looking that far ahead with Trump, who can't be predicted from one hour to the next.
I'm always surprised when media--more often these days, it seems--talk about eight years of Trump as if it's a given he'd run again. If he does make it through four years, I can't imagine 1) that he'd want to run again, or 2) that he'd get nominated. Media do seem to have jumped on the scaremongering bandwagon in looking that far ahead with Trump, who can't be predicted from one hour to the next.
# posted by 
: 2:14 PM
: 2:14 PM
Amy - he has already held an official campaign rally. Probably a month ago and the ball caps he and Melania sported during their hurricane sympathy tour are available for purchase on his campaign website. But then again, he thinks he is GREAT.
Post a Comment
<< Home
