Thursday, December 10, 2015
Political Mayhem Thursday: Republican Analysis with Guest Blogger Waco Farmer!
As I mentioned a few days ago in reference to Ron Fournier, I am lucky to have friends who are often better-informed on many subjects than I am. One of them is the Waco Farmer, who (like IPLawGuy) has a consistent, reasonable, well-considered conservative viewpoint that I may not agree with, but always need to consider carefully. Sometimes they are right, and I am wrong.
Here are his thoughts on the coming Republican primaries:
A Few Notes on the Very Earliest Stages of an American Election.
TRUMP
Possessing a genius for free publicity, Donald J. Trump, the master showman, clearly understands that his success is driven in most part by media outrage. Every time the Donald starts to flag he seems to rebound with an imbroglio. I believe these blustering contretemps were unintentional at first, but now I suspect they are orchestrated.
What makes them so effective? What is the core of the Donald’s appeal? Trump is trafficking in grossly distorted kernels of truth that the mainstream media and other liberal thought leaders insist do not exist. While his thoughts on immigration and Islamist terror do not stand up to careful (or even casual) scrutiny, all of those coarse assertions touch on topics that are generally off-limits for public discussion--but are, in fact, well worth discussing.
His inaccurate and vulgar generalizations are often sprinkled with a few rarely-heard truths. Illegal aliens really do commit crimes.. The system for vetting immigrants from Islamic countries evidently does, in fact, have a few holes. These are things we should talk about in a rational and fact-based environment much more than we do. Trump keeps stomping clumsily through the dark forbidden zones of modern American political culture--and to the delight of his fans. To these “regular Joes” Trump is not a bully; rather, he is sticking to the bullies who regularly torment them: the mainstream media and cultural “elites.”
2016
Having said that, in truth, it is very unlikely that the Donald will be the GOP nominee. As so many experienced observers have noted (Charlie Cook, Nate Silver, and Michael Barone, just to name three of the very best), this early polling means very little. As for me, I have pledged not to panic until the Donald wins at least one delegate. It is early. No one has voted yet.
The preseason is made up of the “money primary” and the “media primary.” The Donald has clearly won the media primary (using his aforementioned gift). However, he has not built the kind of campaign organization that usually wins nominations. And I remain dubious that his out-sized personality (even with his penchant for stirring up salutary troubles) can actually power a successful primary campaign. In fact, I will be surprised if he wins even one state outright.
So, if I’m right and the Donald and Dr. Ben Carson are NOT really the frontrunners in any sense that makes that word meaningful to the nomination contest of 2016, who should we be talking about?
One sharp pundit observed that GOP voters want a person just like Donald Trump...who is NOT Donald Trump. Who would that be?
I see five possibilities for the Republican nomination. In descending order of first most likely to least likely they are: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.
Although Kasich and Bush look moribund, they remain viable because of their connections (money), name recognition, and policy chops. But this is a bad year to be the steady competent guy. These are the two “viables” who are the least like the Donald and, therefore, least likely to catch fire unexpectedly and surprise. But candidates who stay in for the duration always get a second look, at least one last look. If they go the distance (refuse to quit), each has a remote chance of coming back from the dead as the sane alternative as the choice goes into a frenzied overdrive in February.
Chris Christie seemingly combines the best of all possible worlds: experienced chief executive, former federal prosecutor, and a bombastic, in-your-face, no-nonsense guy from Jersey. Trump with a brain and a plan and resume. But Christie has lots of problems with his record as governor (including the fairly manageable “bridgegate” affair). And, unlike Trump who gets a pass on this concern, Christie faces a nagging sense among many true believers that he is more establishment than rock-ribbed conservative on key issues. But Governor Christie possesses quick-strike potential. He needs to breakout in the next few debates, and he must win NH.
Ted Cruz has the conservative bona fides and the support of the actual conservative base (as opposed to the less-reliable populist-driven Trump coalition). He is whip smart. He has built the best organization of any of the seventeen originals, his money-raising is super efficient and prolific, and he has from day one courted conservative evangelicals (which is why he is emerging as the frontrunner in Iowa where previous winners Santorum and Huckabee seem like irrelevant has-beens, Carson is fading, and Trump proves daily he is too much of a vulgarian for your average Iowa church-goer). If Cruz wins Iowa, he will finish in the money in Cleveland.
And then there’s Marco. Great smile. Great orator. Great narrative. Young and dynamic. He speaks the language of the Tea Party but has the confidence of the establishment. Republicans cheer him. Democrats fear him. He is unlikely to win a huge chunk of Hispanics--but he might slice just enough off of that 78-percent cohort to make things very difficult for the Party of Jackson. By all accounts, Rubio makes for the dream general election candidate. GOP top hands are salivating at the possibility (some call him a 52-percent candidate).
PURE SPECULATION
If it comes down to Rubio and Cruz (and it might), Rubio will have the full support of the GOP establishment. And the establishment usually wins. We are more than a generation removed from an insurgent Republican wresting away the nomination (Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Barry Goldwater before that in 1964). On the other hand, these things do happen. A Cruz victory would engender a great sigh of relief in the Clinton camp (very much like the reaction in the Carter administration upon the Reagan nomination).
Would Cruz be Reagan or Goldwater? We would have to play that one out to know for sure.
Comments:
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Why does the media cover every single thing Trump says or does? They are obsessed. No wonder he is ahead!
# posted by 
: 8:36 AM
: 8:36 AM
I have a question for Anon 10:05…I get the experience, the drive, the intellect, the accomplishments but what was about Cruz that moved you to say he has “the heart?”
On a tangent note, to me “conservative” evokes restraint, caution, discretion, tradition… and in the political context fiscal responsibility, social justice and traditional values that respect the public at large. Instead the meaning I see interpreted by politicians calling themselves “conservative” is one of radicalism. Radicalism as in bad word radicalism, not the radicalism of new ideas, the kind that that pushes us all forward but the kind of radicalism that serves a few while pushing us all backward…biblically backward, in fact. I’m trying very hard, but I cannot wrap my mind around the “conservative” message that calls for the government to stay out of my pocket and my own private arsenal, but keep a close eye on my visits to the gynecologist.
On a tangent note, to me “conservative” evokes restraint, caution, discretion, tradition… and in the political context fiscal responsibility, social justice and traditional values that respect the public at large. Instead the meaning I see interpreted by politicians calling themselves “conservative” is one of radicalism. Radicalism as in bad word radicalism, not the radicalism of new ideas, the kind that that pushes us all forward but the kind of radicalism that serves a few while pushing us all backward…biblically backward, in fact. I’m trying very hard, but I cannot wrap my mind around the “conservative” message that calls for the government to stay out of my pocket and my own private arsenal, but keep a close eye on my visits to the gynecologist.
A Two-Fold Thought on "why the media covers every single thing Trump says and does."
1. He is a great story that drives readership and viewership. If it bleeds it leads. Trump is the perfect nexus of politics and sensationalism. No doubt he is an actual newsworthy phenomenon. And no doubt he is the most outlandish and hilariously intoxicating political story to come along in a long, long time. Double prizes.
2. I also think that the partisan members of the mainstream media that lean left are sensing that the Trump candidacy is now a real possibility (either as a nominee or third party), and, for those who would like to see a Hillary presidency, Trump seems to them a godsend. Why not cover this story? At the very least (even if Trump does not go the distance), his reckless statements are forming a narrative that will come back to haunt any GOP candidate in the fall of 2016.
1. He is a great story that drives readership and viewership. If it bleeds it leads. Trump is the perfect nexus of politics and sensationalism. No doubt he is an actual newsworthy phenomenon. And no doubt he is the most outlandish and hilariously intoxicating political story to come along in a long, long time. Double prizes.
2. I also think that the partisan members of the mainstream media that lean left are sensing that the Trump candidacy is now a real possibility (either as a nominee or third party), and, for those who would like to see a Hillary presidency, Trump seems to them a godsend. Why not cover this story? At the very least (even if Trump does not go the distance), his reckless statements are forming a narrative that will come back to haunt any GOP candidate in the fall of 2016.
I think Ted Cruz will be the candidate. When The Donald starts his Independent run Senator Cruz, bless his "heart", will become the strongest anti-establishment candidate standing.
All the Republican candidates stood mute when Trump started on his hate-filled path starting with his comments on Mexicans, women and "the others". The Genie is out of the bottle and will rightfully stick like glue to all of them.
Maybe, this is just a liberal dreaming.
All the Republican candidates stood mute when Trump started on his hate-filled path starting with his comments on Mexicans, women and "the others". The Genie is out of the bottle and will rightfully stick like glue to all of them.
Maybe, this is just a liberal dreaming.
Dad, I think John Kasich and Jeb Bush have both been very critical of Trump. Cruz, not so much.
I'm not convinced that Cruz will have staying power, but I do think he is likely to win in Iowa. Of course, last time around Iowas was won by Santorum and... is he still running?
I'm not convinced that Cruz will have staying power, but I do think he is likely to win in Iowa. Of course, last time around Iowas was won by Santorum and... is he still running?
Oh, and WF-- I think you are right about the left-leaning media, if MSNBC is any indication... they seem to be All Trump All The Time this week.
As was debated and argued on Morning Joe this AM from the vantage point of my treadmill, Trump is creating news and IS news, and in turn, they feel compelled to cover him (after taking a well-publicized call from him the other day). Kinda of like the MC Escher lithograph of hands drawing hands. They also said he does not help their ratings. Hmmm ??? I preferred it when Huff Post relegated him to the entertainment section, but unfortunately there are folks out there that take Trump seriously.
# posted by : 1:50 PM
: 1:50 PM
Mark In the early debates non of the candidates showed outrage. They only looked puzzled that he had found the winning formula for winning Republican hearts.
The Republican base have been fed a steady diet of being told to distrust those in charge. John Kasicch, Jeb Bush and others could have spoken out as they had nothing to lose.
They now are getting that they are not at risk to speak out.
The media on both sides and around the world are covering the leading Republican candidate full time.
The Republican base have been fed a steady diet of being told to distrust those in charge. John Kasicch, Jeb Bush and others could have spoken out as they had nothing to lose.
They now are getting that they are not at risk to speak out.
The media on both sides and around the world are covering the leading Republican candidate full time.
Here's today's Washington Post saying just about the same thing about Trump's strategy -- There's a method to his madness. He's doing this on purpose: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/its-not-chaos-its-trumps-campaign-strategy/2015/12/09/9005a5be-9d68-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumpsupporters-135pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
I thought a consensus establishment candidate would emerge by now. and after the last debate I thought it was going to be Rubio. But he hasn't closed the deal. His positive energy helps. His utter lack of any experience or relevant background hurts. He's a GOP Obama.
My favorite candidate on paper is Kasich, but he's attacked Trump so much that he looks like an angry old man chasing kids off his lawn.
Two possible outcomes: Trump gets the nomination and a 3rd party "mainstream" candidate runs, siphoning votes from Trump allowing Hillary a 40% win, not unlike her husband. Or Cruz or Rubio wins and Trump goes 3rd party.... with the same result.
The failure to knock him out by December means he is NOT going away anytime soon.
Cruz's terrible reputation for his refusals to be a team player scare me. Neither he nor Trump seem to grasp the fact that Congress has a role in governing... unless of course the President goes the Executive Order route. Something the GOP has condemned Obama for.
Cruz may win Iowa. Not sure who wins NH. This could take awhile.
I thought a consensus establishment candidate would emerge by now. and after the last debate I thought it was going to be Rubio. But he hasn't closed the deal. His positive energy helps. His utter lack of any experience or relevant background hurts. He's a GOP Obama.
My favorite candidate on paper is Kasich, but he's attacked Trump so much that he looks like an angry old man chasing kids off his lawn.
Two possible outcomes: Trump gets the nomination and a 3rd party "mainstream" candidate runs, siphoning votes from Trump allowing Hillary a 40% win, not unlike her husband. Or Cruz or Rubio wins and Trump goes 3rd party.... with the same result.
The failure to knock him out by December means he is NOT going away anytime soon.
Cruz's terrible reputation for his refusals to be a team player scare me. Neither he nor Trump seem to grasp the fact that Congress has a role in governing... unless of course the President goes the Executive Order route. Something the GOP has condemned Obama for.
Cruz may win Iowa. Not sure who wins NH. This could take awhile.
I have enjoyed reading all this. As a 'former' Floridian I can tell you that Jeb Bush left Florida bankrupt when he left office. His tax cuts (cough, cough) involved getting rid of the States Intangible tax. We paid it, it was negligible, but in a State with no income tax this was just BS. Guess who was in the Florida State Senate and lock step with JEB, Marco. I have no love for either of them as a Floridian for 25 years.
Cruz scares the crap out of me - Marta summed it up pretty well. Taking us backwards doesn't sit well with me.
I think Kasich is probably the best of the bunch although I don't know enough about him.
I have turned off most news media this week because of the ad nauseam Donald Trump talk. This just clutters my brain and I am tired of it.
Cruz scares the crap out of me - Marta summed it up pretty well. Taking us backwards doesn't sit well with me.
I think Kasich is probably the best of the bunch although I don't know enough about him.
I have turned off most news media this week because of the ad nauseam Donald Trump talk. This just clutters my brain and I am tired of it.
Thank you, Mark. What a rare honor to think and write for such an intelligent and engaged cohort of citizens. Thank you for the gracious invitation.
Thank you so much, Mark. It is always an honor to share this amazing platform, and I especially appreciate the invitation to clarify my own thoughts as I attempt to think and write for a cohort of citizens so informed and engaged.
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