Thursday, November 19, 2015
Political Mayhem Thursday: What to do about ISIS/ISIL/Daesh?
After the attacks in Paris, Beirut, and elsewhere in the last few weeks, there seems to be a consensus that "something" needs to be done about the entity known variously as ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh. But what is that "something?"
1) In the United States, the discussion seems to have quickly turned away from actually addressing Daesh, and towards the rejection of Syrian refugees. The fear is that terrorists will be among those who enter as refugees (as may have happened in France). I'm a little baffled by this, frankly-- we have a good process for screening refugees, and though we have been on high alert against terrorists from countries with high numbers of refugees (i.e., Yemen) since 2001, there has not been a problem.
2) Military attacks on Al Qaeda never made much sense, since Al Qaeda never aspired to statehood, or to hold territory. There was nothing concrete to attack. Daesh, though, has defined itself as a state with borders and territory that it governs. That provides more opportunity for military action, but is that wise? Previous military actions have sometimes motivated more terrorism against the United States.
3) The economic lifeblood of Daesh is oil sales. Can't we just dry that up?
What do you think the US should do?
Comments:
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While the lecturing going around the issue of taking (or failure to take) in enough refugees by Europe and the US is getting increasingly more explosive by the implication terrorists may have infiltrated the wave of humanity pouring out of the Middle East, wealthy Gulf Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE have taken in precisely zero refugees despite the obvious resources, space and geographical proximity to the conflict area. Which brings up the crux of this entire situation: CONFLICT! And if war is a last resort, extreme way to solve a conflict what do two decades of war in the Middle East have to show for in that direction?
The refugee question is really a culture-wars sideshow (somewhere in the vicinity of the "war on Christmas"). Moreover, there are millions of refugees and we are arguing about whether we will try to process 10 or 10,000. Honestly, in this situation, the USA is out of the loop and will never play an important role in processing the victims of this crisis. On the other hand, in this particular situation, caution is not foolhardy.
What to do with ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh?
BTW: one thing I will never understand is why the White House expended so much effort to make us say ISIL instead of ISIS (Daesh I could have understood).
We are in a mess. It looks like our strategy going forward will be to make common cause with our Russian allies and new-found Iranian and Hezbollah friends. As you indicate, the "Islamic State" cannot succeed. As I have joked for more than a year now, "I can't wait until the Islamic State has a capitol and executive mansion because we will then be able to bomb it." I understand not everybody thinks jokes about falling bombs are all that funny, but this is something John McCain and I have always had in common.
Anyhow, ISIS, much like Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson, is inherently incapable of achieving its stated goals. So, in the end, ISIS is toast. In the meantime, we need to craft a coalition of the willing (as light as possible on US ground troops) and implement these no-fly zones and safe zones, which will take a big bite out of the refugee crisis.
A CODA:
CSPAN spent the first forty-five minutes of Washington Journal (http://www.c-span.org/video/?400513-2/washington-journal-news-headlines-viewer-calls) this morning listening to refugees who found a home in the USA. Lots of heartwarming stories of folks who came to America with great appreciation and thrived and gave back much more than they received. I could not help but think that these were stories from a different time.
As I have said often in the larger immigration debate: it is not so much that the immigrants have changed over time as the America that they come to has changed radically--much less confident about who we are as a people and much less adept at transmitting an American identity and American values to newcomers through our political culture and our public education system. I am convinced that there is a massive disconnect with our history and our present in the way we socialize aspiring Americans.
What to do with ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh?
BTW: one thing I will never understand is why the White House expended so much effort to make us say ISIL instead of ISIS (Daesh I could have understood).
We are in a mess. It looks like our strategy going forward will be to make common cause with our Russian allies and new-found Iranian and Hezbollah friends. As you indicate, the "Islamic State" cannot succeed. As I have joked for more than a year now, "I can't wait until the Islamic State has a capitol and executive mansion because we will then be able to bomb it." I understand not everybody thinks jokes about falling bombs are all that funny, but this is something John McCain and I have always had in common.
Anyhow, ISIS, much like Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson, is inherently incapable of achieving its stated goals. So, in the end, ISIS is toast. In the meantime, we need to craft a coalition of the willing (as light as possible on US ground troops) and implement these no-fly zones and safe zones, which will take a big bite out of the refugee crisis.
A CODA:
CSPAN spent the first forty-five minutes of Washington Journal (http://www.c-span.org/video/?400513-2/washington-journal-news-headlines-viewer-calls) this morning listening to refugees who found a home in the USA. Lots of heartwarming stories of folks who came to America with great appreciation and thrived and gave back much more than they received. I could not help but think that these were stories from a different time.
As I have said often in the larger immigration debate: it is not so much that the immigrants have changed over time as the America that they come to has changed radically--much less confident about who we are as a people and much less adept at transmitting an American identity and American values to newcomers through our political culture and our public education system. I am convinced that there is a massive disconnect with our history and our present in the way we socialize aspiring Americans.
Ok - so the refugees that we are vetting have apparently been in camps in Jordan for well over a year. These people fled DAESH/ISIS/ISIL long before the "conversion for survival" started. They are not the people hot footing it to Europe.
We use the term ISIL because not all these crazies are in Syria. They are in an area historically known as the Levant (L). The Saudis have stayed silent because these extremists are to the far right of the right winged Saudi Muslims who joined al Quaeda. As if that is believable. Al Quaeda didn't want territory like these jerks from ISI?.
If we bomb the oil production facilities that they have taken over the gas prices in the US will suddenly spike again, which will piss people off. Actually it will piss the people who want us to bomb the crap out of ISIS, et al... off. It might also bring the stupid Canadian oil sands pipeline back into play - because we want our cheap fuel...
Have the Saudi, UAE and Qatari's stayed quiet because it would be like the Baptists taking in the Catholics?
Please forgive my wine tainted rant....
We use the term ISIL because not all these crazies are in Syria. They are in an area historically known as the Levant (L). The Saudis have stayed silent because these extremists are to the far right of the right winged Saudi Muslims who joined al Quaeda. As if that is believable. Al Quaeda didn't want territory like these jerks from ISI?.
If we bomb the oil production facilities that they have taken over the gas prices in the US will suddenly spike again, which will piss people off. Actually it will piss the people who want us to bomb the crap out of ISIS, et al... off. It might also bring the stupid Canadian oil sands pipeline back into play - because we want our cheap fuel...
Have the Saudi, UAE and Qatari's stayed quiet because it would be like the Baptists taking in the Catholics?
Please forgive my wine tainted rant....
Since I doubt diplomacy would work, perhaps the only way to compel the wealthy Arab nations to get actively involved in solving the crisis in the region is to hit them with the very reason of their wealth (and implicit relative stability): the threat of an oil embargo. But then who are kidding, oil is like crack cocaine to the West.
Wait, what about oil rich Venezuela? Do they still hate our guts Hugo Chavez style?
Wait, what about oil rich Venezuela? Do they still hate our guts Hugo Chavez style?
Perhaps you ask the wrong question; not what should the US do, but should the US do anything?
Either way, I don't know the answer...
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Either way, I don't know the answer...
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