Osler's Razor

I share your concern about Jeb (not his name but initials!). His brother was a disaster in Texas and then for the country. But W's worst decision was his choice of Cheney for Vice President, and allowing him to set a lot of the policy direction of the administration, including how the intelligence was put together after 9/11. Quite frankly, there are many things that were done from 2002-8 that should be in criminal court, not the dust bin of history.

We need not Jeb or any other Bush, and another one is already climbing the political ladder in Texas.
 

There were two primary disasters in the George W. Bush years, one of which is all on him. That would be the Iraq war. I think Bernie Sanders' certainly overstated by calling it "the worst decision in American history" (slavery? Japanese Internment camps? Charles in Charge?), but it was one of the worst in my lifetime, and we are seeing some of the grim results now. The other, which was created by many people including Bush, was the economic collapse built on lax regulation of banks. It's really sad that his brother seems to have learned from neither of these debacles.
 

Taking issue with the premise:

1. Jeb was NEVER inevitable. He always had two potentially insurmountable obstacles (not counting his family name) in a GOP primary: immigration and common core. He always had a very narrow path to the nomination. He still does.

2. He is still viable because he presents an amazing resume as a successful former conservative governor of an important state. Even with all his disadvantages, he remains one of the few people on the stage with a positive track record, a keen grasp of policy, and a willingness and ability to fight until the last dog dies. Jeb is playing the long game. He has always been something of a long shot within the short list of people in the GOP primary who have the potential to win--but he understands that; he always has. Because of his will to persevere he cannot be counted out probably until deep into March (probably longer). He is much better off than John McCain was at this point in the 2007/2008.
 

George W. Bush benefited from the feeling, first in Texas and then elsewhere, that somehow Bill Clinton "stole" the presidency from George H.W. Bush. Republican anger over that "thievery" helped propel W first into the Texas governor's office, and with the added benefit of weak Democratic candidates, then into the White House.

Jeb Bush does not have this benefit, however. Republican and conservative anger over the Obama presidency is leading the majority of those constituents (if the current polls can be believed) to the so-called outsider candidates - Trump and Carson. W didn't have the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus crowd to contend with - but Jeb does. And it is killing his chances to be the standard-bearer for his party.

Jeb also has to contend with great unhappiness with his brother's performance as president which is still being felt by the electorate. Not enough time has passed for people to be nostalgic about W's term in office. We do not look fondly back on the years 2000-2008; most people see them as years when we were dragged into two (seemingly) unending wars and economic policies that propelled us into recession and hard economic times.

Timing is everything. From what I've seen, the time for insider mainstream Republican candidates is not now. Hence, Jeb is apparently doomed.


 

John Ellis Bush (his real Waspy name and not the down home sounding almost biblical moniker of "JEB") to many if not most GOP voters equals Milquetoast. He can't even do the phony Southern drawl employed by his brother George, nor does he have military and spy agency bona fides like his dad. JEB, with all of his capital and connections, will not be the nominee and he will never be President. -Scott Davis
 

Jill makes a great point that not many people understand.

The son rode that rage to the GOP nomination and then to the White House. Al Gore was so closely associated with Clinton that it was easy to transfer the resentment against Clinton to Gore.

Now the rage and anger are even more intense. I fear that its going to take some catastrophe or unexpected event to rearrange the political deck chairs.

Trump/Carson/Fiorina/Cruz are channeling that rage; or at least trying to do so (so are Jindal, Huckabee and others, but no one cares). As current and former governors Kasich, Christie and Bush know that rage has no place in actually governing. Rubio is attempting to straddle both camps. Its simply a question of how the field winnows out. I expect that after Iowa and New Hampshire we'll get down to a field with one or two of the first four "outsiders" I mentioned and ONE, just ONE of the three governors +Rubio. Financial backers will force the also rans out, quickly. And at that point, it will be a battle between money/establishment on one side and rage/outsider sensibility on the other.

If JEB can hold out to that point, he can still take this. But I'm guessing he won't. The "establishment" flavor of the month is Rubio... but he needs to avoid peaking too early.
 

I will not see Scott Baio dragged into this muck raking.
 

I will not see Scott Baio dragged into this muck raking.
 

I am with midcitieslaw: best work Scott Baio ever did (and Willie Aames too for that matter).
 

Noteworthy Freudian slip: I did not mean to say Jeb was formerly an important conservative; rather, he is a conservative candidate who is a former governor of an important state.
 

We're still a year away from voting day. I'm doing a pretty good job of paying little attention to the parade. I don't mind waiting to see if any of these horses are even on the track come election day.