Thursday, August 06, 2015
Political Mayhem Thursday: Not the End of Trump
I don't think Donald Trump will be the President. But I also think he will gain in popularity after the debate tonight.
Many people think that the televised debates will be Trump's downfall, of course-- that he will crack and say something stupid and then people will flee from him in droves. They forget two things.
First, Trump can say dumb things, unpopular things, and not have it hurt him much. We learned that when he said the dumbest thing imaginable about John McCain. His appeal to a segment of the population is that he is willing to be mad about stuff without being specific, or fussing too much about policy or niceties.
Second, and more importantly, people forget that Donald Trump will be the person on that stage with the greatest mastery of the medium of television. In a distant second is Mike Huckabee, who was a Fox News personality for several years-- but never gained the audience and popularity that Trump's show ("The Apprentice") attained. He is the only person in the Republican field with a catchphrase… a catchphrase ("You're fired!") that fits right in with anger at government.
Trump's personality is suited for television. More subtle is the fact that his skill set is well suited to a debate involving several opponents. Sure, some people will take shots at him, but he is the center square and will get his chance. He has a gift some might not perceive clearly, which is timing and patience. Watch the clip above, for example. He calls in four failed "apprentices," but he does not lambast them right away. He lets them seethe and attack one another and him, and waits. His tone, even in delivering insults, is measured. He is a master of that medium.
Trump's time for a comedown will not come tonight, and it won't come because Republicans turn against him en masse because of some epiphany about his beliefs or policy. Instead, he will be worn down by the institutional politics of the Republican Party, which consistently delivers mushy and flip-flopping moderates like George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. Money and time and a thousand short swords will do their work well before the first primary occurs.
But, tonight will not be the Trump meltdown some expect or hope for.
Comments:
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The McCain takedown was brilliant. The GOP base does not like John McCain. So Trump was absolutely preaching to the choir.
Same deal with Lindsay Graham. To win the Republican nomination, one must go through South Carolina. So Trump grabbed all kinds of headlines and incited the Graham haters in the Palmetto state big time.
My guess is the Christian Right will end up tanking Trump over his personal life, but he's going to have a long run in this process.
Same deal with Lindsay Graham. To win the Republican nomination, one must go through South Carolina. So Trump grabbed all kinds of headlines and incited the Graham haters in the Palmetto state big time.
My guess is the Christian Right will end up tanking Trump over his personal life, but he's going to have a long run in this process.
I agree with Mark in part--and I totally agree with IPLG that the McCain incident was brilliant (whether it was intentional or just insanely lucky is not clear to me). I agree with Mark that the process will wear him down. Not necessarily because of long knives and short swords and squishy moderates in my view--but, rather, because the process of gaining the presidency is a marathon that requires determination and discipline and an almost single-minded obsession. I agree wholeheartedly with Mark that the diminishment of Donald Trump will not be the result of any one moment; rather, it will be the function of him getting bored with us and us getting bored with him. In short, Donald Trump does not have the training or make-up to do this every day for eighteen months (Ross Perot had the same problem). One of these days Trump is going to wake up and this is not going to be fun--and at some point soon after that he will go back to his real life.
WF-- I would agree with you regarding Trump getting tired/bored if he was running as a traditional candidate-- making multiple appearances a day, worrying about what the Sioux City Rotary Club thinks, etc. But he's only doing what he wants. He doesn't need to raise money either, and that is the one part of the process that is most wearying to candidates and office-holders. They hate it. He doesn't have to do it.
I'm not a Republican, as you all know. If I was, I would be really discouraged at the prospect of a Jeb Bush ascendancy. He is part of a group that has failed to deliver much of what the Republican base really wants. Let's line it up (these aren't my priorities-- they have been the priorities of the Republican Party of late):
Failures:
-- Staunching illegal immigration through a wall, etc.
-- Eliminating abortion
-- Promoting school prayer
-- Shrinking government
-- Addressing the deficit
Successes:
-- Low taxes on the wealthy
-- Huge military relative to other nations
-- Expanded gun rights
I'm not a Republican, as you all know. If I was, I would be really discouraged at the prospect of a Jeb Bush ascendancy. He is part of a group that has failed to deliver much of what the Republican base really wants. Let's line it up (these aren't my priorities-- they have been the priorities of the Republican Party of late):
Failures:
-- Staunching illegal immigration through a wall, etc.
-- Eliminating abortion
-- Promoting school prayer
-- Shrinking government
-- Addressing the deficit
Successes:
-- Low taxes on the wealthy
-- Huge military relative to other nations
-- Expanded gun rights
A Rumination on the Impact of the GOP Debate Tonight on the 2016 Election:
Over the past decade I have watched faithfully two sitcoms: the Office and Big Bang Theory (and as many reruns of Seinfeld as I can find). I watched a few seasons of NCIS but basically gave up on network dramas after ER and NYPD Blue. I have watched Mad Men obsessively and Downton Abbey (against my will after the end of season three). But mostly I have watched or sampled reality shows: some of the Bachelor in the beginning, Dancing with the Stars, just a touch of the Apprentice very early on, watched Swamp People for a while, Duck Dynasty for a while. I love Chopped and Beat Bobby Flay in a big way right now. I have watched 16/17 seasons of Big Brother, and I also continue to love the GOP primary debates.
However, none of the above have very much (if anything at all) to do with who wins the presidency in 2016.
Over the past decade I have watched faithfully two sitcoms: the Office and Big Bang Theory (and as many reruns of Seinfeld as I can find). I watched a few seasons of NCIS but basically gave up on network dramas after ER and NYPD Blue. I have watched Mad Men obsessively and Downton Abbey (against my will after the end of season three). But mostly I have watched or sampled reality shows: some of the Bachelor in the beginning, Dancing with the Stars, just a touch of the Apprentice very early on, watched Swamp People for a while, Duck Dynasty for a while. I love Chopped and Beat Bobby Flay in a big way right now. I have watched 16/17 seasons of Big Brother, and I also continue to love the GOP primary debates.
However, none of the above have very much (if anything at all) to do with who wins the presidency in 2016.
I kind of want to know how you were forced to watch Downton Abbey.
Also, I agree that this debate will not have very much to do with who wins the presidency. It may have something to do with which Republican candidate will win the nomination of his party.
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Also, I agree that this debate will not have very much to do with who wins the presidency. It may have something to do with which Republican candidate will win the nomination of his party.
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