Thursday, June 12, 2014
Political Mayhem Thursday: The Demise of Eric Cantor and a memory of 1984
On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost in the primary to a little-known Tea Party challenger, college professor David Brat. His home district in and around Richmond rejected the incumbent and a lot of people are guessing at the reasons. Top speculations include shifting positions, a failure to pay attention to retail politics in his district, and Democrats turning out to vote against him.
Cantor's ouster (he immediately resigned as Majority Leader) was both confounding and historic. He had been the highest-ranking Jewish member in the history of the House, and the only non-Christian Republican in all of Congress, though I have heard no suggestion that religion played a role in his electoral loss (after all, he won the seat in the first place with his religion well-known).
Clearly, the Republican party is having an identity crisis of sorts. The Tea Party faction has positioned itself to the right of the Republican mainstream, and even when they don't win elections (and they usually don't),
All this made me think about the most successful Republican of our times in political terms, Ronald Reagan. If nothing else, Reagan did seem to bring together the divergent wings of the Republican Party. I believe much more in what Reagan said than what he did-- in truth, he was a remarkable deficit-builder who solved problems by enlarging the federal government-- but his political success was built on his own smarts (he was smart) and successful use of symbol and imagery. For example, this is his most memorable ad:
It's a great ad, and it fit Reagan's demeanor and personality. It worked.
Plus, and I noticed this for the first time yesterday, the house that appears at 0:12 of the ad looks exactly like the house I grew up in!
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The big deficit builders on the last 60 years or so were all Republicans who ran against the idea of deficits. Bush 2, Bush 1, Reagan, Nixon. Check out the data. Those who have reduced the deficit were all Ds!
# posted by 
: 7:12 AM
: 7:12 AM
This has been fascinating. I am at ground zero with all this. I live in the 7th District and I work with Dave Brat, as well as his Democratic opponent at Randolph-Macon. Our campus was crawling with reporters and news trucks yesterday. I have known Dave for years; we work out at the same time every morning. Our politics could not be more different. He loves to argue issues, is very opinionated, and there have been many spirited debates on treadmills amongst the morning crew with Dave over the years. He has good sense of humor, and in a good hearted way can take it as well as he gives it out. Always entertaining, often funny, conversations … sometimes a bit heated … although not always closely aligned with reality (re: all of us). And now he is the lead story on the national news.
Although at the end he got support from some of the Tea Party folks, he is not really a Tea party guy, and as I understand, they did not give me much support early on (and same for the local Republican establishment) … although they appear to overlap a bit and the Tea party appear to be trying to claim him now. I think people need to be careful about over generalizing about this. I think this has far more to do with a local frustration with Cantor … who has come off as aloof, smug, and arrogant to many on both ends of the political spectrum. To say nothing of the broad frustration with Washington, for which I think he paid price. We have open primaries in VA; I know a lot of democrats that voted Tuesday, voting for Brat as a vote against Cantor. There was a poll conducted yesterday in the 7th that indicates that 80%+ of responding Republicans are in favor of immigration reform – so it appears that may have also not really been the issue. Like everyone else, I was stunned that Cantor lost. Brat carried the majority of the counties
Although at the end he got support from some of the Tea Party folks, he is not really a Tea party guy, and as I understand, they did not give me much support early on (and same for the local Republican establishment) … although they appear to overlap a bit and the Tea party appear to be trying to claim him now. I think people need to be careful about over generalizing about this. I think this has far more to do with a local frustration with Cantor … who has come off as aloof, smug, and arrogant to many on both ends of the political spectrum. To say nothing of the broad frustration with Washington, for which I think he paid price. We have open primaries in VA; I know a lot of democrats that voted Tuesday, voting for Brat as a vote against Cantor. There was a poll conducted yesterday in the 7th that indicates that 80%+ of responding Republicans are in favor of immigration reform – so it appears that may have also not really been the issue. Like everyone else, I was stunned that Cantor lost. Brat carried the majority of the counties
# posted by : 10:27 AM
: 10:27 AM 
I'm north of the 7th District, but this is a HUGE deal all over the Old Dominion and in Republican circles. I haven't been active in the GOP in several years, but I have all kinds of friends who are.
Craig's right, Dave Brat is not someone who has been associated with the very vocal and active "Tea Party" Republicans here in Virginia.
Yes, I am sure some Democrats voted in the primary --- Republicans vote in Democratic ones too here in Virginia. Any candidate who does not take that into account is foolish.
To me this just shows how difficult a job it is to be a Member of Congress. Cantor's role as Majority Leader put him on the road and made him a creature of D.C., taking him away from his district. Which meant he lost touch with the people he represented. Not so much idealogically, but personally. And voters resent that.
Craig's right, Dave Brat is not someone who has been associated with the very vocal and active "Tea Party" Republicans here in Virginia.
Yes, I am sure some Democrats voted in the primary --- Republicans vote in Democratic ones too here in Virginia. Any candidate who does not take that into account is foolish.
To me this just shows how difficult a job it is to be a Member of Congress. Cantor's role as Majority Leader put him on the road and made him a creature of D.C., taking him away from his district. Which meant he lost touch with the people he represented. Not so much idealogically, but personally. And voters resent that.
I agree with IPLawguy about the difficulties of being ML and staying in touch with one’s constituents. Strikes me as an almost impossible balancing act … yet Cantor appeared to assume it was a lock (we all did), and his own polling data supported that. I think that also at the same time turned folks off. He also turned off a lot of folks by claiming Brat is a “liberal professor” in his campaign ads; that is a stretch beyond imagination. Like calling me a Red Wings fan (well I am, sort of, but not in that way).
What I think is good is it makes people feel they have a say, and that is good. There is a local Republican group of powerbrokers called “the machine” that handpicked Cantor and several state and country level folks (and they had previously brushed aside Brat for an open, uncontested local state delegate seat a few years ago for the son of Dominion Power) … and this has taken them out of play. A good thing.
Other good things. Cantor became very walled off by his security detail and entourage every time he came to town (big suburban’s, SS details, etc.). Maybe no way to avoid that as ML, but the two candidates in play now I trust will make every effort to be much assessable … yet they will be back benchers and not the ML, so much easier for them to do. Both candidates are nice guys and I anticipate it will be a very civil, respectful campaign, which will be a real anomaly. They may even debate on campus … and being part of the same community may also be a moderating factor … although as you know, that is often not the rule for faculty … but I do think it will be for the two of them. Maybe we should just have a big rave on campus …
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What I think is good is it makes people feel they have a say, and that is good. There is a local Republican group of powerbrokers called “the machine” that handpicked Cantor and several state and country level folks (and they had previously brushed aside Brat for an open, uncontested local state delegate seat a few years ago for the son of Dominion Power) … and this has taken them out of play. A good thing.
Other good things. Cantor became very walled off by his security detail and entourage every time he came to town (big suburban’s, SS details, etc.). Maybe no way to avoid that as ML, but the two candidates in play now I trust will make every effort to be much assessable … yet they will be back benchers and not the ML, so much easier for them to do. Both candidates are nice guys and I anticipate it will be a very civil, respectful campaign, which will be a real anomaly. They may even debate on campus … and being part of the same community may also be a moderating factor … although as you know, that is often not the rule for faculty … but I do think it will be for the two of them. Maybe we should just have a big rave on campus …
# posted by : 2:44 PM
: 2:44 PM << Home
