Osler's Razor

Ohhhhhhh.... Crikeys. Things are getting very odd in the world of football conference realignment. Here is the latest:

1) On Sunday, Pitt and Syracuse quit the Big East to join the Atlantic Coast Conference. This left the Big East in dire straits, as it has only five football-playing members left (with TCU set to join in next year). People assume that this is it for the Big East-- it will dissolve or merge with another league.

2) Then yesterday the governing Boards of the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas met (separately) to discuss conference realignment. The OU Board gave their president authority to move the school to another conference; in contrast, the UT board voted to require board approval of any potential move. Many think that UT and OU will join the Pac-12, and that will spell the end of the Big 12.

3) This may all be very bad for Baylor, sadly. If the Big 12 breaks up, the best and most probable scenario is that the remnants of the Big 12 (probably Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and maybe Missouri) will hook up with the remnants of the Big East (South Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, TCU and perhaps UConn) form a kind of awkwardly-shaped league with several divisions.

This would mean a lot less money for Baylor. It would also mean horrific travel schedules for student-athletes. Such a league would offer only one other school in Texas, and many trips of over 500 miles.

4) Wisely, Baylor sees its best option as keeping the Big 12 together, and has done its best to make this happen. Ken Starr and Ian McCaw identified this as their best option early on, and have pursued it relentlessly. However, Baylor has a handicap that can't be helped. In short, Baylor does not have much to offer in the one area that counts the most in this sad calculation-- fans who watch tv. Yesterday's New York Times offered this listing of current Big 12 Schools and their fan base:



So, where will the Bears end up? I predict the following will be the shape of the "New Big 12":

Atlantic Division

UConn
South Florida
Manchester United
Central Florida
West Bromwich
Trump University
Miami (Delaware)
Temple

Western Division

Baylor
TCU
Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
SMU
Rice
Oakland Raiders
Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Boise State

Update! The crisis has likely been averted... I certainly hope so. Good job Baylor U!