Osler's Razor

Who cares? The Iowa straw poll is coming up!!!!! Go Milt Romney!
 

Go Milt!
 

We are to blame for all of this. We will pay the price, which is huge. It is up to us to fix it.
 

How are we all to blame for this? Do you mean both parties?
 

I mean every American that votes and every American that doesn't. Every American that pays taxes and every American that doesn't. We are a zombie democracy.
 

One of my ongoing themes is that our current predicament is the result of politicians who understand that there is no electorate minding the store. In that regard, the Tea Party, for all its faults, is the best thing to happen to American politics in decades.
 

I don't think both parties should be blamed for this. I think politicians elected from both parties should be blamed for this. This is not something that happened overnight , it spanned a few administrations of both denominations and it degenerated because elected officials on both sides were more interested in keeping their seats and not in making effective changes that would keep up with the reality at hand, which in turn would have potentially blown the precious seat from under them. It is up to us to fix it, meanwhile it looks like squeezing the middle is the name of the game and just like a tube of toothpaste, it is sad looking and messy, but most of all it is wasteful.
 

In terms of blame, does anybody really think this all goes back to credit default swaps? The ineptitude of George Bush or Barack Obama? The greed on Wall Street? A Tea Party downgrade? Really?

Our problems are ones of demographics and mathematics. We have reached a point where the reality of our obligations and our ability to create wealth no longer add up. We have reached an incredibly predictable crisis for a society that demands lower and lower taxes and more and more services.
 

But Mr. Farmer, the Tea Party folks are largely responsible for the total resistance to any new taxes, something you agree should be considered when the debt is so egregious. Isn't that intransigence both wrong and exceptionally dangerous in this environment?
 

The Tea Party is not realistic on taxes--yet. But they are right on entitlement reform and the necessity of a government that spends within its means. This is progress.

They have made a decision (if that is the right word) to try and stop the spread of a malignant federal government and address the crisis of sustainability FIRST.

If you talk to the Tea Party folks, it is clear that they do not trust Washington to make a Grand Bargain. They think it is a trick. I cannot fault them for that belief. There is plenty of history to support that reading.

But, and here is the good news, they are engaged. Good for them. They have fundamentally changed the nature of the conversation. Good for them. Let's just hope that the Tea Party can evolve over time and adapt their plan to the coming plagues.
 

Marta, I love the toothpaste analogy. Quite apt.
 

For Marta:

We need to squeeze the middle in this case because that is where the toothpaste is.
 

DEBTAGEDDON!!

This country is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions. Old Testament real wrath of God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

The question of who is to blame comes down to a fundamental question, where do you think we should go? If you think we should go towards a huge welfare state then the "tea party" (or as they are known in some circles, "Panopticon 2.0") is to blame, because they put a roadblock (a costly one) in the way of unbridled spending by refusing to support new taxes. If you think we should go towards balanced budgets, reasonable spending, small government, unicorns, fairies, and pots of gold then lots of people are to blame. Bush and the Republican congress that allowed spending to get out of control in the last decade. The Democrats in congress that pushed through three rounds of wasteful stimulus spending. The Democrats in the Senate that haven't proposed a budget in THREE YEARS. And, if you really want to get crazy, then go back to the Democrats in congress who told Reagan during the last real debt ceiling fight that if he raised the debt ceiling they would promise real meaningful spending cuts, and then turned around and never did it, which some conservative Republicans have never forgotten. This problem didn't start two years ago. It didn't start 10 years ago. It started decades ago.

Did this bring us to the brink of disaster? Probably not. I mean, they're still playing baseball games, people are still shopping, nobody has built thunderdome yet. It is bad, but it isn't cataclysmic. But I applaud the efforts of those who said that raising taxes isn't enough (because it isn't) and we have to start finding ways to reign in spending (because we do) and refused to give in, because that is the only way meaningful change was going to happen. And it has to happen. Because we can't tax our way out of the pile of debt we have.
 

Mr. Farmer, sir, it sure looks like the Republican response to the Tea Party wing is to draw a bright line on taxes and compromise on the other things you are talking about.
 

I for one favor building the Thunderdome.
 

Mark,

I am not sure I agree with you on your analysis of what the Republican Party is doing. I am not sure that the Republican Party has any idea what they are doing. And I am not sure it matters.
 

Waco Farmer, that is where the toothpaste is easiest to get out of the tube! To keep the analogy, after a while and it has been a while (squeezing the middle, I mean) the toothpaste at the bottom becomes caked-in and pretty much useless and the top is really hard to squeeze out. Unfortunately that is where the analogy stops, unless we take the loss, throw out the ruined tube and change the analogy to one that actually matches today’s needs...beyond dental care, that is.
 

Okay, Marta. Got it. Sorry. Good analogy.

I agree it is now time to do the hard things (like asking the "middle class" to pay as they go).
 

The problem I see is that people with very sharp views have taken over both parties and neither side will compromise. Republicans won't raise taxes and Democrats won't talk about entitlement reform -- which is where the savings and cost cutting are going to have to come from.

I have a lot of conservative true believer friends on Facebook and WF is right, they simply DO NOT TRUST the Democrats. Every other deficit cutting measure has not worked, in their view, because the Democrats cheated. Remember Gramm Rudman in the 80's? Or the Bush Budget Deal in 1990?

In their view, the Tea Partiers DID Compromise.. They agreed to raise the debt ceiling. To them this was a HUGE concession.

Again WF is right... we need to be the solution. Go to your local Republican or Democratic party meetings and sign up, get involved and support candidates who are trying to find solutions, not score idealogical points.
 

Speaking of Milt, his campaign is a perfect example of the problem I describe. He was not known as an idealogue when Governor - he got things done. But in order to get the GOP nomination he has to take some pretty extreme positions and say some whacky things.... which will make governing very difficult if he wins.
 

Debt ceiling debates, cutting spending versus tax increases, stock market volatility, etc. = smoke and mirrors.

Politicians are simply doing what they are paid to do (by PACs and lobbyists, of course), protect corporate and business interests. Until we can find a way to generate billions to lobby for early childhood education, for instance, genuine interest in making our country prepared for the future will take a back seat to a bunch of dopey politicians who no longer govern for the greater good.

Both parties are to blame for where we sit. Actions like the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 by an overwhelming majority in both parties allowed financial institutions to get us into this mess while allowing the ultra wealthy (top 1% type stuff)to continue to suck the golden goose dry. The mentality in this country is that the wealthy truly deserve what they have and work harder than everyone else ignores that many were dropped off at third
base to begin with, not that their amazing individuality helped them hit their perceived home run.

The lower and middle class continue to suffer, we cut spending (which will inevitably hurt job creation, the market, etc. even more) while still refusing to tax the top of the heap (or even refusing to repeal a tax cut from 2004 that we could not afford then or now).

Whatever happened to the concept of being a citizen-servant, and that paying taxes is a cost of that privilege? Yes, inefficient government spending is bad, yes, crippling taxes are bad, but we have the lowest tax rates in the history of our country. What am I missing?
 

We don't actually have the lowest tax rates in the history of our country. For most of our history, there was not an income tax. There was not a corporate income tax. There was not a capital gains tax. Most of the federal government was paid for through the collection of tariffs well into the c. 20.

Of course, those days are gone forever--and good riddance. We could not support a modern state on a c. 19 revenue structure. But let's be careful about the talking points we throw around.

The much-discussed disparity between rich and poor is also misleading--as the gap is more attributable to the immense wealth of the rich rather than the misery of the impoverished.

In truth, the middle class has had it pretty good up until now. It is not as if we have been working in a coal mine while the Robber Barons have been building their castles. Most of us from top-to-bottom have done pretty well over the past few decades.

But, alas, it is now time to pay the piper.
 

In re the nomination process, I agree with IPLG. The primary system as currently configured makes governing more problematic. We can do better.
 

Clearly, but the lowest rates since a federal income tax was instituted, in some cases 60-70% lower for the highest earners.
 

Jon - It is also inaccurate that we have the lowest tax rate we have had since income taxes began. In fact, the highest marginal rate currently is 35%. That is higher than the highest marginal rate between 1925 & 1931, which was 25%, and it is higher than it was between 1987 and 1992, when it was 28% and 31%.

Also, the highest marginal tax rate in history was 94%, which is exactly 59 percentage points higher than the current top rate, which means that in exactly no cases is it 60-70% lower for the highest earners.

What is accurate about your claim is that taxes are lower on middle income and low income people in this country right now than they have ever been at any point in history.

DEBTAGEDDON!
 

DEBTAGEDDON indeed! I for one, am brushing on my conversational skills in Mandarin...I don't know if you've noticed that one of the top 10 NY Times articles e-mailed today is about the Chinese zeroing on investments in NYC.
 

Yeah, but China has its own set of problems. Their growth has largely been built on the backs of huge infrastructure projects, many of which were completely unnecessary and done for no reason other than propping up the economy and creating jobs. Those projects were largely financed with (wait for it) debt. And thus China has its own bills coming due, and when the infrastructure stops being built and the jobs go away there are real questions about the sustainability of the growth China has seen over the last two decades.

I'm sticking with english. West is best baby!
 

Marta is right.
 

Fair enough, but at the very least substantially lower rates than the majority of our taxpaying history.

And along with Brazil and India, I think Marta is onto something-
 

Kudos to Marta. She turns out to be a real unifier.
 

Nah, Scheib's a sucker for anyone with an authoritarian-sounding name.
 

China also has a demographic nightmare or two in the offing. Not enough women, too many men. Lots of older poor people who will not be able to turn to children for support.

Environmental disasters abound as well.
 

Cut spending, raise taxes on everyone to pay off debt. Live below our means but within our needs as a society. Concentrate on programs of social uplift which afford a good ROI (like K-12 education and higher ed). Reward effort and hard work. Return more power (particularly in school districts) to local people.

It would work, but of course, it won't happen because everyone from the most liberal Democrat to the most conservative Republican will not compromise, fails to take responsibility for him/herself, let alone care about neighbors; and what is more, everyone from left to right is looking for a handout.

Good luck America, you shall need it.
 

Anon. 11:08 -- I really like the way you put this: "Live below our means but within our needs as a society."
 

I like how Scott Greenfield put it over at Simple Justice put it:

The Democrats are unprincipled, unfocused and spineless.

The Republicans are unprincipled, focused and Machiavellian.

The Tea Party is principled, focused and cluelessly simplistic.

Outlier ideologies may have their points, but offer no panacea. Religious doctrine hasn't worked for churches, no less secular governance.

It's a truism that we get the government we deserve. We are not exceptional.

This is not going to end well.