Osler's Razor

From what I understand, Guiliani's whole strategy from the beginning has been to basically not campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, and instead focus on other, bigger states later on. By ignoring those states, which he was always unlikely to win in, he's avoiding the bad buzz that former frontrunners like Clinton and Romney are currently having to deal with. Time will tell whether or not this is a viable strategy.
 

Yeah, I don't get the whole "secretive" charge. Maybe it's because of our temple worship. But it still doesn't make sense because we open temples up to everyone before they are dedicated. And we tell what goes on in the temple to people as much as the covenants we make in the temple allow us. And the reason we don't talk about the other things we do in the temple is because they are extremely SACRED to us.

Still, I can tell you that there is no divergence from what we teach outside of the temple with what we teach inside the temple.

And you're right, a large part of the reason so few know much about what we believe is because they decline our invitation to share our beliefs with them.

On a brighter note, the people of our nation have made great strides against religious bigotry! And if the worst thing people will do to us is not vote for us because of our faith, I'll take it. It's much better than being tarred and feathered, beaten, raped, or murdered!
 

Greetings from NH.

OK, I am totally biased, but based upon my observations today, the Romney campaign is next to nonexistent here. Hardly any yard or road signs and no presence with people. We had a flock o' McCainiacs in downtown Portsmouth waving signs, chanting, etc. We were shoulder to shoulder with the Hillary people (lots of Union guys) and the Obame folks. Some Rudy supporters showed up and made some noise too and I saw a couple of pissed off looking Edwards supporters. But no Romney. Odd considering that he lives next door in Massachusetts.
 

I just read a Mormon-blogger's response to the article you referenced. If anyone wants to read it, here's the link:
http://adventures-in-mormonism.com/2008/01/06/ignorance-at-work/.
 

With apologies to the length of the post, here's my more than two cents on the subject. I think Romney's campaign is falling apart because of a serious miscalculation he made when he first ran, which he is now realizing too late.

Mitt had the opportunity at the beginning of the race to cast himself as the Republican Obama, an outsider for change with special emphasis on something that has been lacking from the Bush Administration: competence. He has a long background with his business experience, the Winter Olympics, and as Governor to back this up.

Instead, Romney and his team sized up the front-runners as being McCain/Guiliani and thought that space existed to run as a traditional conservative. The only problem is that Romney had previously taken several positions that conflict with this strategy in his 1994 Senate and 2002 gubernatorial runs in Massachusetts. I don't doubt that these changed positions are sincere beliefs now held by Romney. But they are nonetheless several positions that have changed. It conjures up visions of a previous presidential contender from Massachusetts who was tagged with the flip-flopper label. As a Republican primary voter, I shudder to think of the months of negative campaign ads that would inevitably result. I simply don’t think that he is electable in the fall.

I think many other primary voters have seen this as well, but have not been so charitable in their judgments, labeling him as a fake or a phony. So when a Huckabee or a McCain come along, these candidates might not embrace all of the traditional Republican stands on the issues. But what they do have that Romney doesn’t is authenticity. Voters pick up on that and thus Romney is sliding.

Only now does it appear from the last two debates that Romney is going to the course I think he should have taken in casting himself as the Washington outsider for change. Unfortunately, I think it’s too little too late for Romney. I might be wrong, the primaries are so fragmented that he might have time to rally (he certainly has the money to do it). But if he loses New Hampshire and then Michigan, it’s difficult to see how South Carolina or Florida is anymore hospitable for him than Iowa, New Hampshire, or Michigan.

And to think my parents said I’d never use my poli sci degree again…
 

Even though I'll vote Dem, I've tried to follow both sides . . . regarding Giuliani (and putting aside the issue of his campaign strategy), he seems all over the place, geographically as well as message . . . and he's had lots of personal quirks or foibles, big and small, that the media focus on . . . it just seems it will be quite an uphill battle for him to get very far.
 

Jeffy--

That's an interesting analysis, and I agree. I always wondered why it was that Romney wasn't standing on those strengths.
 

You ask what happened to Rudy...

A previous poster is sort of correct in that Iowa was never really a focus for him, though NH was (he abandoned it when it became clear that he couldn't win).

Rudy has been hurt by a few things. First, while he initially appealed to moderates, the religious right absolutely hates that guy (for the most part). This means that he needs the moderates in the party to stick with him to keep his numbers up.

But Rudy has been unable to keep his grasp on the rest of the GOP. First, I think his more liberal stance on immigration has hurt him among the non-religious right portion of the GOP base (though you'd think it would help him with the pro-business crowd)

Second, the guy has no gravitas. He's got no presence and is not going to appeal to people based on his style. The guy is the anti-Obama.

Third, Dems like me like to joke about the fact that its impossible for him to utter a sentence without using the phrase "9/11." Thats obviously somewhat hyperbolic, but not a whole lot. I think people are beginning to figure out that they want more from their candidate than just the fact that he was mayor on 9/11

Fourth, the Judith Nathan scandal. I don't think that its much of a coincidence that his big drops in the polls coincide with when the scandal about his girlfriend's (current wife's) security detail began to surface. Not only is it distasteful to those religous voters that still supported him, it also is just generally seedy and cuts against his claims to be fiscally conservative.

There are probably other reasons why he's gone into the tank, but I think those are four big ones. He may still have a slim lead in the national polls, but the fact is that it has shrunk greatly and in our primary system national polls mean absolutely nothing. Looking at the key primary states, especially the early ones where momentum can be built one comes to the obvious conclusion that he's toast.
 

You know what is weird? I never met one single Mormon until I moved to Oregon and they are the nicest people you could ever meet. AND it seems the only people who make fun of them are the ones from the other religions... seriously They make cracks about their magic underwear, etc.

Well I do not care what they wear the Mormons I know are sweet and have never once tried to convert me or anything like this.

Though, it does seem like Mitt Romney is a bit of a tool... but not because he is a Mormon.