Thursday, October 17, 2024
PMT: The Final Approach
A tumultuous election season is coming in for a landing, and it is pretty scary out there no matter which side you are on. Nate Silver says that with a 2.8% national lead, there is a 50% chance that Kamala Harris will win the electoral college and become president. According to that expert (and most others) we are in pure tossup territory. All of the swing states have a margin of 1% or less except Arizona (which is 1.5% for Trump).
A lot can happen between now and November 5, of course, but it is unclear if any of it will matter much. People are dug in, and there just aren't a lot of people out there who haven't made up their minds AND are likely to vote. The candidates are scraping around for any advantage.
In the end, one of two things will matter. First, there might be a bump one way or the other by news or circumstances, like Jim Comey's dumb announcement about Hillary Clinton's emails on the eve of the 2016 election. Second, there might be something that affects turnout, such as a storm that hits either the rural or urban part of a swing state.
It's going to be close, unless the polls are terribly wrong-- and they probably aren't.
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Impromptu Dance Party!
Usually I am a big fan of an impromptu dance party! As noted on the Razor, I especially enjoy kitchen dancing.
But, it turns out some impromptu dance parties are just kinda weird. My favorite part of this one is how confused ND Governor Kristi Noem is by the whole thing (and this is a woman who murdered her puppy). At 4:00 of the clip below it gets a little cringy as it seems like maybe Trump is going to start slow-dancing with Noem to "It's a Man's Man's Man's World" and turn the weird up to 11. But... the whole thing is really something.
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
The Football Scene, College Version
Here is the preseason AP poll:
Let's compare, shall we?
-- First, note that Florida State started the season in the top ten. Now they are nowhere close: 1-5 with a bunch of losses still ahead of them.
-- Next, you'll see that Alabama is about in the same place (#5 in August, #7 now). And what happened between then and now? They lost to Vanderbilt. In a football game. Then they almost lost at home to South Carolina. But, I guess they are still Alabama. (and they also beat Georgia).
-- Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia all started near the top, and are still there.
-- Michigan started (as defending champs) at #9 and fell out of the top 20 (though they are #24) by losing two games: one to Texas and one to Washington.
-- Utah looked good until it didn't, losing to both Arizona schools on consecutive weekends.
-- And out of nowhere? Indiana! Go figure....
Monday, October 14, 2024
Poems on reading
[Photo provided by my friend Jon, who is really good at this AI image thing]
There were lots of great poems by some great Razor regulars!
We had know fewer than four from Jill Scoggins, who began with emotion:
I hate a book's end.
I grieve for the loss of those
I won't meet again.
Pivoted to current reading:
Reading Barbara
Jordan's bio. A woman
who made good trouble.
And ended with the truth:
Libraries, book stores
hold gold that takes you where you’ve
never been before.
IPLawGuy is the biggest reader I know, and it is great to hear him describe what he is reading at any given time. He started with a favorite author:
Edmund Morris wrote
Strange bios: "Dutch" (Reagan)
also "Edison."
Continued with a mystery:
"Skippy Dies," sad tale
Does anyone prevail or grow?
Story sticks with me.
And whipped back to an author:
Bernard Cornwell writes
historical tales of yore
"Pagan Lords," Vikings
historical tales of yore
"Pagan Lords," Vikings
Christine described her reading:
On audio just
Finished reading "The Barn"
Where Emmitt Till died
Next up listening
To "The Warmth of Other Suns"
Southern migration
On my Kindle I
stick with a variety
of lighter reading.
Finished reading "The Barn"
Where Emmitt Till died
Next up listening
To "The Warmth of Other Suns"
Southern migration
On my Kindle I
stick with a variety
of lighter reading.
And then described the Razor:
It appears many
Avid Razor readers try
Their hands at Haiku.
Avid Razor readers try
Their hands at Haiku.
While Desiree batted clean-up with the feeling we readers all share:
Finished my book with
a smile, because now a new
adventure begins.
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Sunday Reflection: Follow the money?
Famously, Mark 10 offers us this:
17As he was setting out on a journey, a man ran up and knelt before him, and asked him, “Good Teacher, what must I do to inherit eternal life?”18Jesus said to him, “Why do you call me good? No one is good but God alone. 19You know the commandments: ‘You shall not murder; You shall not commit adultery; You shall not steal; You shall not bear false witness; You shall not defraud; Honor your father and mother.’” 20He said to him, “Teacher, I have kept all these since my youth.” 21Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, “You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me.” 22When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.
So often, ministers and theologians have tried to make this be something other than what it clearly is: a condemnation of wealth. If it isn't clear enough, we have this in the next passage:
23Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, “How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!” 24And the disciples were perplexed at these words. But Jesus said to them again, “Children, how hard it is to enter the kingdom of God! 25It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.”
We live in a society that worships wealth as much as anything-- just look at the presidential race if you don't believe me. It's a tragic flaw, that leads us in the wrong direction again and again. In my own profession, it certainly does-- the people who make the most money are usually working for those who are polluting our earth, abusing workers, finding ways to evade paying their fair share of taxes, and maximizing profit at the expense of the lives and health of our neighbors.
I see it again and again in my students, who often take the job that pays the most, even if they don't have loans to pay off. I talked to a mid-career lawyer recently, who is working for a huge firm and makes a lot of money. I asked her what she was working on. The answer? Defending the people who marketed opioids to far too many and led to a tragic addiction epidemic still plaguing our nation. Her vocation is working so that they can continue to do so.
We are failing to see what Jesus taught, even when he was most clear.
Saturday, October 12, 2024
I approve this message
Friday, October 11, 2024
Haiku Friday: Whatcha reading?
We are entering that time of year with more cozy and less outdoorsy. Great reading weather, in other words. So, let's haiku about that this week! Here, I will go first:
Last page completed
I close the book, nod, and sigh
I will miss you all.
Now it is your turn! Just use the 5/7/5 syllable pattern and have some fun!
Thursday, October 10, 2024
PMT: The Politics of storms
Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida's West Coast yesterday, close on the heels of Hurricane Helene passing nearby. It's going to be a tragic and expensive mess for a while.
The Trump campaign is doing everything it can to make the federal government's response sound like a failure, though the reviews on the ground from Helene have been fair to good. Still, there are longstanding political issues raised by the destruction-- and they are not new.
First, of course, is the issue of climate change, which has made these storms more dangerous because of the warming of the Gulf of Mexico; the warmer waters are fuel for this kind of storm, apparently (via science I don't understand). That isn't something we can change soon, and alone, but the effects will only get worse if not addressed.
The second and more immediate concern is about flood insurance. After taking huge losses, some insurers stopped offering homeowners insurance to flood-prone areas-- mostly expensive neighborhoods on the shoreline in states like Florida. So, the federal government stepped in and offered subsidized insurance that is going to lose about $5 billion in initial funding and have to start tapping into credit to pay claims (which is all funded by taxpayers). It is, of course, mostly a form of welfare for wealthy people, where all of us pay taxes to insure their million-dollar homes close to the beach.
Proponents, of course, argue that it is important to continue the program or there will be real negative impacts on communities in these areas.
What should happen next?
Wednesday, October 09, 2024
A New Bridge!
For my entire life, there have been two ways to go from Detroit to Windsor, Canada: You could take the tunnel next to the Renaissance Center, or the Ambassador Bridge south of downtown. Because the Ambassador Bridge was the primary truck route it was often backed up (and was owned privately by a local family).
But now there is a second route: the Gordie Howe Bridge! It's going to open things up-- and it's named after Gordie Howe!
Tuesday, October 08, 2024
If you don't follow college football....
Something really really unusual happened last weekend...
Monday, October 07, 2024
Poems of Fall foods
I liked this topic! As did Desiree:
No more okra so
no more gumbo 🙁. I guess it’s
time for ‘tato soup!
no more gumbo 🙁. I guess it’s
time for ‘tato soup!
And Your Tim(e) Has Come:
CrackerBarrel time
Whether Lakeville or the Dells
Pancakes real butter.
Whether Lakeville or the Dells
Pancakes real butter.
And Anonymous 1:
Ah, it's apple crisp's
sweet aroma that draws me
into the kitchen.
sweet aroma that draws me
into the kitchen.
And Anonymous 2:
Is there anything
Quite as on the spot for fall:
Pumpkin Spice Latte.
Quite as on the spot for fall:
Pumpkin Spice Latte.
And Anonymous 3:
Eating Greek gyros
As I watch the Lions lose
Hey, it's tradition!
As I watch the Lions lose
Hey, it's tradition!
And my favorite from Christine!:
One hundred and one
Butternut Squash recipes
To cook and savor.
Butternut Squash recipes
To cook and savor.
Sunday, October 06, 2024
Sunday Reflection: the flight from church
Three years ago, an important threshold was crossed: fewer than half of Americans were affiliated with a church, mosque or synagogue. The 47% of people who were was way down from 70% in 1999.
Of course, some people identify as an adherent of a faith but don't go to services. That number is way down, too: This year, the percentage of Americans who choose "none" when asked about their faith is up to 28%, making them the largest of the groups identified-- in comparison, the number identifying as Catholics was 23%. The number of "nones" has nearly doubled since 2007, which is not that long ago!
There is, of course, a lot of hand-wringing and commentating on why this has happened. Right-wingers assert that it is because churches are insufficiently conservative. People on the left usually point to "culture" or kids using screens or the like. But they are all bleeding members.
It might be relevance to people's lives that is at the core of the problem. Churches traditionally provided not only answers to peoples' questions about life, but gave their lives meaning. Now, as people find meaning in online communities and other kinds of "third places," perhaps church is losing that role.
It's just my gut on this, but I think political polarization has a lot to do with it, too. It seems like there are a lot of people who find meaning and identity in politics. And the perception of Christians as Trumps probably drives a lot of people away.
I don't have an answer. But it could be that humility has something to do with that answer.
Saturday, October 05, 2024
Because Jon Stewart is usually worth it....
Friday, October 04, 2024
Haiku Friday: Comfort Food of Fall
[Ok, first of all, I know the image above is disturbing, and please know that I don't consider cats to be "comfort food." But this is the image that AI gave me when I asked for an image of "Melania Trump having dinner at a diner with Pickles the Cat." The kitten watching the whole thing is probably the worst part. And why is Melania just eating Pickles' disembodied head? When people suggest that AI is something we can trust with important jobs, I will remember this image.]
The air has turned a little cool here, and it's about time! I love the Fall, and everything that comes with it, including the comfort food we turn to as the air turns cold. Let's haiku about that this week! Here, I will go first:
Football game is on?
I'll make "Dad's Famous Nachos"
A fan favorite.
Now it is your turn! Just use the 5/7/5 syllable pattern, and have some fun!
Also, if you want to get that cat picture out of your head, here is what AI gave me for "Melania Trump having dinner at a diner with a panda":
Thursday, October 03, 2024
Political Mayhem Thursday: Reflections on the VP Debate
The VP debate on Tuesday was worth watching, even though it probably will have little to no effect on the election in November. A few observations:
-- In terms of debate style, Vance clearly won. He was smoother, more articulate, and seemed much more adept. He reminded me of Bill Clinton in terms of skill set.
-- In terms of presenting himself as a person we would want in such high office, I think Walz won. He wandered off topic, didn't answer questions directly at times, didn't have the depth of knowledge that Vance did, sure, but he also seemed to have an integrity to him in whole that people find more trustworthy, I think. And he said that if they lost, they would not try to obstruct the election, something Vance can't and didn't say-- and given Jan. 6, 2021, that matters.
-- The single worst and best moments belonged to Walz. The worst was his answer when asked about a prior statement he made about being in Hong Kong during the protests in Tianemen Square in China: he talked for a few minutes before saying "I messed up." He should have led with that. The best moment was him forcing Vance to non-answer the question about whether Trump lost in 2020.
-- I thought it was pushing the "folksy" thing too far when Walz had a beer halfway through the debate (see illustration), but I don't think people cared much.
Wednesday, October 02, 2024
High water
When Hurricane Helene was building up in the Gulf of Mexico, I don't think many people thought "Boy, I'll bet that storm is really going to wallop Asheville, North Carolina." Yet, the is exactly what happened, as Asheville and its environs seem to have suffered the most serious consequences of the storm.
73 people died in North Carolina, with 57 of them from Buncombe County, where Asheville is the county seat. That number may still go up as more missing people are accounted for.
Nature is still a wild and unpredictable thing, and climate change is making that all the more true.
Tuesday, October 01, 2024
The VP Debate
As many of you know, my favorite debate of all time was in 1992, between vice-presidential candidates Dan Quayle, Al Gore, and Admiral James Stockdale. This was long before Dan Quayle saved democracy (THAT was a twist I didn't see coming), before Al Gore lost the bonkers election of 2000, and before the death of Admiral Stockdale in 2005. Stockdale, the running mate of Ross Perot, was a genuine American hero who survived over 7 years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam and later was a serious scholar of ancient Rome. He wasn't, though, properly prepared for the debate. Among other things, he turned off his hearing aid during the debate (which was, really, a rational choice).
I suspect that both JD Vance and Tim Walz will be properly prepared for the debate tonight, and I really look forward to it-- unlike the presidential debates, this one will feature two smart people who are fully capable of answering questions thoughtfully. Of course, they might not choose to do that....
Monday, September 30, 2024
On Autumn
You all make me love Fall all over again! And I do love hearing from CraigA:
War Zone: acorns from
the mighty oaks plunking every
rooftop, shed, and car!
the mighty oaks plunking every
rooftop, shed, and car!
And Christine (glad you are ok!)
Hurricane season
In the south, even NC
Rain falls, tree tops sway.
In the south, even NC
Rain falls, tree tops sway.
Desiree:
Leaves, leaves go away.
They’ll be back another day.
Time to wax the skis.
They’ll be back another day.
Time to wax the skis.
And The Medievalist:
The days grow shorter,
Twilight on the city of
Minneapolis.
Twilight on the city of
Minneapolis.
And even this anonymous poet:
Hurricane season
Peaks in the fall; Northerners
Don't have to worry.
Peaks in the fall; Northerners
Don't have to worry.
Sunday, September 29, 2024
Sunday Reflection: For us? Against us?
In John 9 we find this story:
John said to Jesus, “Teacher, we saw someone casting out demons in your name, and we tried to stop him, because he was not following us.” But Jesus said, “Do not stop him; for no one who does a deed of power in my name will be able soon afterward to speak evil of me. Whoever is not against us is for us. For truly I tell you, whoever gives you a cup of water to drink because you bear the name of Christ will by no means lose the reward.
Elsewhere (Matthew 12:30) Jesus says the opposite-- that "those who are not for us are against us."
Ministers worldwide have worked hard to either harmonize these two things or to avoid the subject altogether. I'm not sure I can do better than either group. Good thing I am not a minister!
I've always understood both of these to be about people who are in the squishy middle. After all, it isn't those who are "for us" or "against us"-- it's people who aren't really in either.
Maybe we could think of that group as sadly unfocused-- pick a side already!-- but it could be that they just haven't engaged with the question. And in that way, they are both for AND against us.
For example, think about people who really have no opinion about climate change. They either don't care one way or the other, or have never really thought about it. To people seeking to address climate change, those people (seen as not being against us) are for us in the sense that they are not resisting the changes sought. They also (seen as not being for us) are against us in that they are not pro-actively a part of the solution.
But mostly, here is how I think of those neither for- or against- people: as an audience. They are the ones we can persuade, and then real things, accomplishments of the spirit, can happen.
[Note: the illustration is supposed to be Mitch McConnell driving out demons]
