Thursday, July 31, 2025
The politics of population growth
One of the important demographic trends in the United States is the slowing growth in out population-- between 1975 and 2024, the population grew at about 0.9%, but for the next several decades it will be more like 0.2%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. At the same time, the fertility rate has crashed to well below the replacement rate for the population (which is a little over 2 children per woman):
That means that having any population growth at all-- in fact, just to avoid a population crash-- we will have to rely on immigration.
Really, there are three schools on how to deal with this:
1) Encourage immigration, so we don't suffer the economic harms that come with a decreasing pool of labor;
2) Encourage birth by those in the country (a position held by Elon Musk and others); or
3) Allow the population to fall, and make up for the labor problem with increased productivity through automation, AI, etc.
I don't think the second option would work even if we wanted that-- it has already failed in a number of countries, including Italy.
The first option has a way of choosing itself, since supply always finds demand (despite any short-term limits on immigration). But if automation increases productivity, there is less demand for labor.
The third option would have environmental benefits, but relies on a remarkable remaking of the workplace in many industries. It would also empty out some parts of the country, and make some forms of agriculture almost impossible.
Which path do you think is best?
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Editing
Yesterday, I wrote about how much I love writing. But, there is this thing that happens...
I finish a draft of something. I print it out. It's time to edit the thing, work it over and fix the problems. And I just can't. For all that I love the writing part, I hate the editing part. That's why I earned the not-so-positive nickname of "One Draft Osler."
It's not that my first draft is good enough-- it never is. Sometimes I go back over it and can't figure out what I was trying to say. It's just that reading it over again and again is like looking at pictures of myself-- something I usually try to avoid.
Yet, I've had to learn the discipline of editing. It has its own rhythm, of course, and it makes everything better... but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Writing
Lately, I have been working hard on a long article. It's got a simple thesis-- that prosecutors are affected by the vicarious trauma they experience-- but there is a lot to say.
When I write, there are times it becomes all-consuming. I lose track of time and get buried in an idea. It's sometimes related to what I read, but other times it just spins on itself. I type, I think, I stomp around and mutter, then I type some more. Deleting happens. Then more muttering.
I suppose it is an exercise of creation. And like any exercise of creation, there is movement with it, a rhythm, and when you get to the end it is kind of jarring...
Monday, July 28, 2025
What Happens Next?
I'm familiar with people who are in prison and really really really want a commutation so they won't be in prison anymore. And right now one of those people is at the center of our headlines. However, unlike the people I usually deal with, it might be that she is willing to say whatever she needs to say to receive that commutation.
It's a dangerous dynamic. My hunch is that Ghislaine Maxwell has or will give closed-door testimony that (unusually) will become public. She will name several prominent people as pedophiles associated with Jeffrey Epstein, but say that Donald Trump was not one of them. And then she will get a commutation.
It might be the truth. It might not be. And it might be very hard to tell.
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Sunday Reflection: All I do not know
My first principle is this: There is a God. From that certainty (to me), comes a vast unknown. After all, if God is God-- that is, unimaginably more knowledgeable than I can ever be-- then there is a vast expanse of truth that I do not know.
It's that juxtaposition, a certainty that creates almost absolute uncertainty, that makes all of this so fascinating to me. I love the mystery around us, the wealth of knowledge that eludes us yet defines us. So much that happens surprises us, so you would think we would have the humility to accept our lack of understanding of the whole.
But, of course, humility is hard.
Saturday, July 26, 2025
Some good ideas in here....
Friday, July 25, 2025
Poetry Friday
I'm giving haiku Friday a break and featuring some other poets-- don't worry, we will get back to it!
This week, I offer this much loved Texas-y piece from our friend Megan Willome:
Texas Squall
Lord knows a storm’s gotta break sometime.
It knows it’s needed
when sorrows
can’t cloud up one moment more
and you set there on the porch
prayin you at least get some rain
outta this storm
dang it
cuz so far it’s just lightnin
lightin up the sky
looks like the trees are lyin to you
till all hail breaks loose
like someone’s hurlin
baseballs golf balls grapefruit oranges
every size of round right at you.
Next mornin
live oak limbs litter streets
car windows all busted out
skylights broken
you got threshed but good and all
anyone can talk about is how that pollen’s gone.
Clean gone.
C’mon out, y’all
Thursday, July 24, 2025
PMT: Who are our friends?
Back in the day (say, 2024), it was pretty easy to say who the United States' closest allies were: UK, South Korea, Canada, Australia, etc. But now it is all turned upside down: Canada is mad about the whole "51st state" business, the UK is flustered by tariffs, Trump has threatened to withdraw troops from South Korea, and Australia seems to be just waiting out the craziness.
Part of the "America First" agenda is exactly that, of course-- that we stand alone for our own interests and don't need allies the way "internationalists" say we do.
That will be tested when there is an international debacle (and there will be). It might sneak up on us because of a weakening of the "Five Eyes" intelligence group composed of the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. It specializes in "signal intelligence" (intercepting and decoding messages). Right now, it is more important than ever because of the rise of Chinese hackers.
Still, members of the Trump administration suggested moves to push Canada out, which failed. The tumult in the US intelligence community is a further stressor.
There is a lot that is being lost right now-- and we may not know until it is too late.
Wednesday, July 23, 2025
America Divided
The division of the United States (again) seems almost unthinkable to me, but apparently is appealing to a surprising number of my fellow Americans.
Oddly, support always seems greatest in those places that take more from the federal government than other states (Alabama, South Carolina etc.) But their problem is often cultural, not economic-- they don't want to be part of the apostates in New York or California with their liberal ways.
Now, of course, some people who don't want to be part of the US are the liberal apostates.
Fortunately, there is no one issue that divides us the way slavery did in the last secession crisis. We are divided politically right now in unfortunate ways, but those division don't cleave to state lines. Texas wants to secede because of "Democrats?" Well, the 46% of Texans who are Democrats might have a word...
Tuesday, July 22, 2025
College Football Update!
It's July, and that means people like me are thinking about college football already! Below I have an update on some of my favorite teams:
University of Minnesota:
With cutbacks across the country on health care provision, the University of Minnesota has returned to using Goldy Gopher to directly inject students with medication, including members of the football team. This could be a good thing, especially if the offensive line can come together when properly medicated:
Northwestern Wildcats:
Willie the Wildcat... is it just me or does he always just look stoned? I mean, is this guy really going to inspire his team? Sounds like another down year for the Mildcats if Willie doesn't get his act together.
University of Michigan:
I'm a huge Michigan fan, and always have been. Which makes it all the more disappointing that they don't even have a mascot. It's right there to be taken, guys-- an angry wolverine with nothing to lose! But no. Which means it will be another disappointing year for Michigan on the gridiron.
Vanderbilt:
The Commodores at least HAVE a mascot, Mr. C, which means they will be better than Michigan at football. Still, he isn't so bubbly or interesting, and comes off the loser when compared to the WKU Red Blob thing:
Monday, July 21, 2025
Monday, Monday
There it is-- the ultimate song about Mondays. The Mamas and the Papas were a pretty fascinating group. They were only together from 1965 to 1968, and had a kind of folk/beat style-- and even though they had a brief time together, they ended up in the rock and roll hall of fame. They earned it, too-- their harmonies were memorable.
John and Michelle Phillips were a married couple, and a pretty interesting one-- their daughter Chyna Phillips was in the group Wilson Phillips. Michelle Phillips was a rare "pure soprano" in rock music, but started out as a model. After the group broke up and she divorced John Phillips, she worked as an actress for decades.
Cass Elliot was the other woman in the group (she was sometimes known as "Mama Cass"). In the early 60's she was a broadway performer, and also working at the coat check in a Greenwich Village club. She said that she got hit in the head walking through a construction zone, and it improved her vocal range by three notes.
Mama Cass died at age 32-- apparently of a heart attack-- in Harry Nilsson's apartment in London. Keith Moon, the drummer for The Who, later died at age 32 in the same bedroom.
Sunday, July 20, 2025
Sunday Reflection: The Theology of Hymns
Here's something that happens to me sometimes: I'll be in church singing a hymn and think about the words and realize "Wow-- I don't believe THAT!"
I'm not going to pick on any hymn in particular, because it will be someone's favorite. As I reviewed some popular hymns, I realized that most of them are very consistent with what I believe. I have a problem with modern "praise music" sometimes-- in part because there is almost no theology there at all.
But... does anyone else sense a clunker now and then?
Saturday, July 19, 2025
I love the back-stories...
Friday, July 18, 2025
Poetry Friday
I am going to give everyone the week off, and instead share one of my favorite poems, by Robert Frost:
My long two-pointed ladder's sticking through a tree
Toward heaven still,
And there's a barrel that I didn't fill
Beside it, and there may be two or three
Apples I didn't pick upon some bough.
But I am done with apple-picking now.
Essence of winter sleep is on the night,
The scent of apples: I am drowsing off.
I cannot rub the strangeness from my sight
I got from looking through a pane of glass
I skimmed this morning from the drinking trough
And held against the world of hoary grass.
It melted, and I let it fall and break.
But I was well
Upon my way to sleep before it fell,
And I could tell
What form my dreaming was about to take.
Magnified apples appear and disappear,
Stem end and blossom end,
And every fleck of russet showing clear.
My instep arch not only keeps the ache,
It keeps the pressure of a ladder-round.
I feel the ladder sway as the boughs bend.
And I keep hearing from the cellar bin
The rumbling sound
Of load on load of apples coming in.
For I have had too much
Of apple-picking: I am overtired
Of the great harvest I myself desired.
There were ten thousand thousand fruit to touch,
Cherish in hand, lift down, and not let fall.
For all
That struck the earth,
No matter if not bruised or spiked with stubble,
Went surely to the cider-apple heap
As of no worth.
One can see what will trouble
This sleep of mine, whatever sleep it is.
Were he not gone,
The woodchuck could say whether it's like his
Long sleep, as I describe its coming on,
Or just some human sleep.
Toward heaven still,
And there's a barrel that I didn't fill
Beside it, and there may be two or three
Apples I didn't pick upon some bough.
But I am done with apple-picking now.
Essence of winter sleep is on the night,
The scent of apples: I am drowsing off.
I cannot rub the strangeness from my sight
I got from looking through a pane of glass
I skimmed this morning from the drinking trough
And held against the world of hoary grass.
It melted, and I let it fall and break.
But I was well
Upon my way to sleep before it fell,
And I could tell
What form my dreaming was about to take.
Magnified apples appear and disappear,
Stem end and blossom end,
And every fleck of russet showing clear.
My instep arch not only keeps the ache,
It keeps the pressure of a ladder-round.
I feel the ladder sway as the boughs bend.
And I keep hearing from the cellar bin
The rumbling sound
Of load on load of apples coming in.
For I have had too much
Of apple-picking: I am overtired
Of the great harvest I myself desired.
There were ten thousand thousand fruit to touch,
Cherish in hand, lift down, and not let fall.
For all
That struck the earth,
No matter if not bruised or spiked with stubble,
Went surely to the cider-apple heap
As of no worth.
One can see what will trouble
This sleep of mine, whatever sleep it is.
Were he not gone,
The woodchuck could say whether it's like his
Long sleep, as I describe its coming on,
Or just some human sleep.
Thursday, July 17, 2025
PMT: Construction amok
Minnesota, generally, is pretty well-run. There are some bumps and mistakes, but I do get the idea that most people in government are genuinely trying to get something good done (something that can't be said of all government jurisdictions).
That said, the plan for road construction here is getting people upset. Sure, there is a lot of construction going on, and in a way that is good-- stuff is getting fixed. But what's happening now is that they are undertaking projects on both a primary highway and the most logical alternative to that highway at the same time, shutting down most of your options going in the same direction.
I find it hard to believe that both routes had to be done immediately, and now there is some pushback on what is happening.
A local issue? Sure. But in the end, they all are.
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Summer doldrums
[Art: Another part of Diego Rivera's stunning work at the Detroit Institute of Art]
There is always a part of summer, right about now, that I kind of slow down. That's ok, of course-- it is kind of what summer is about for an academic-- but then I worry that my brain has turned off.
My internal counter to that, though, is that maybe it is good to turn it off for a while. And it's not like I'm not thinking or not doing anything at all; it's a part of the cycle of the year, and I really love that my year has these very distinct phases.
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
The Deluge(s)
With nearly 100 people still missing from the devastating floods in Texas (and 131 confirmed dead), now there is flooding in the Northeast, even closing down subway lines in New York.
There have always been floods, and for centuries this has been a problem for us humans, who seem to really like living near rivers (for good reason, of course). I don't doubt that global warning has made things worse, and could create whole new levels of mayhem in the future, particularly on ocean shorelines.
The Texas floods brought out a cruel fact: a lot of times we are not very good at preparing for even the most obvious threats. I think there is a very human tendency to expect that what happened before will not happen again-- that's how the Guadalupe killed 10 people in 1987 and nothing seemed to change.
But... it is a characteristic of leadership to create the initiative to prevent a "next time." And it appears that we have been lacking that for a while.
Monday, July 14, 2025
Things done in July
Lots of haiku action this week! We had this very small complaint from CraigA:
Hot and humid on
The Outer Banks in July.
Sand in flip-flops.
The Outer Banks in July.
Sand in flip-flops.
And an anonymous reflection (you had me at "pie"):
The peaches explode
On my tongue, from silver tin
Mother has made pie!
On my tongue, from silver tin
Mother has made pie!
Des had two (the second of which I relate to); not only this:
Sweet days of summer,
zucchini’s in bloom. I pick
it, bread it, fry it!
zucchini’s in bloom. I pick
it, bread it, fry it!
But this!:
Big golden sunset
at the end of a day that
I wish never ends.
at the end of a day that
I wish never ends.
Tim was here, and heard:
There's not much better
Summer in Minnesota
The U P also.
Summer in Minnesota
The U P also.
And Christine had two gems, this:
Visiting family
Long hot days on the highway
Trav'ling here and there.
Long hot days on the highway
Trav'ling here and there.
And this:
Saturday morning
Walking the Farmers Market
Ruby red radishes.
Walking the Farmers Market
Ruby red radishes.
And so many anonymous entries, like this:
Kids play at the pond
Evenings last 'til after bed
Fresh fruit all day long.
Evenings last 'til after bed
Fresh fruit all day long.
And this:
Brown,roiling water
Covers us, we yelp,puppies—
Play—agua heaven.
Covers us, we yelp,puppies—
Play—agua heaven.
And this:
Thorns’ mosquito kiss
Do not deter me, for I
Know luscious jam comes.
Do not deter me, for I
Know luscious jam comes.
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Sunday Reflection: At the Feast
Jesus certainly had hardships, but also moments of joy. He turned up at feasts, and a lesson always came from it. One of his first miracles came at a wedding feast in Cana, that he attended with his mom and his apostles, described in John 2:
2 On the third day a wedding took place at Cana in Galilee. Jesus’ mother was there, 2 and Jesus and his disciples had also been invited to the wedding. 3 When the wine was gone, Jesus’ mother said to him, “They have no more wine.”
4 “Woman,[a] why do you involve me?” Jesus replied. “My hour has not yet come.”
5 His mother said to the servants, “Do whatever he tells you.”
6 Nearby stood six stone water jars, the kind used by the Jews for ceremonial washing, each holding from twenty to thirty gallons.[b]
7 Jesus said to the servants, “Fill the jars with water”; so they filled them to the brim.
8 Then he told them, “Now draw some out and take it to the master of the banquet.”
They did so, 9 and the master of the banquet tasted the water that had been turned into wine. He did not realize where it had come from, though the servants who had drawn the water knew. Then he called the bridegroom aside 10 and said, “Everyone brings out the choice wine first and then the cheaper wine after the guests have had too much to drink; but you have saved the best till now.”
Later he gives us the parable of the Great Banquet:
15When one of those at the table with him heard this, he said to Jesus, “Blessed is the one who will eat at the feast in the kingdom of God.”
16Jesus replied: “A certain man was preparing a great banquet and invited many guests. 17At the time of the banquet he sent his servant to tell those who had been invited, ‘Come, for everything is now ready.’
18“But they all alike began to make excuses. The first said, ‘I have just bought a field, and I must go and see it. Please excuse me.’
19“Another said, ‘I have just bought five yoke of oxen, and I’m on my way to try them out. Please excuse me.’
20“Still another said, ‘I just got married, so I can’t come.’
21“The servant came back and reported this to his master. Then the owner of the house became angry and ordered his servant, ‘Go out quickly into the streets and alleys of the town and bring in the poor, the crippled, the blind and the lame.’
22“ ‘Sir,’ the servant said, ‘what you ordered has been done, but there is still room.’
23“Then the master told his servant, ‘Go out to the roads and country lanes and compel them to come in, so that my house will be full. 24I tell you, not one of those who were invited will get a taste of my banquet.’ ”
And he gives advice about attending a banquet, also in Luke 14:
7When he noticed how the guests picked the places of honor at the table, he told them this parable: 8“When someone invites you to a wedding feast, do not take the place of honor, for a person more distinguished than you may have been invited. 9If so, the host who invited both of you will come and say to you, ‘Give this person your seat.’ Then, humiliated, you will have to take the least important place. 10But when you are invited, take the lowest place, so that when your host comes, he will say to you, ‘Friend, move up to a better place.’ Then you will be honored in the presence of all the other guests. 11For all those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted.”
Of course, the Last Supper was a feast of sorts, too.
Part of what I take of this is that Jesus means for us to join together for joyous celebrations! We just have to do it with the right heart, and include "the poor, the crippled, the lame and the blind." Luke 14:13.
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Caption contest
Friday, July 11, 2025
Haiku Friday: What to do in July
Ah, July! If you live in the North, there is nothing else like it-- it is literally the only month that there hasn't been snow somewhere in Minnesota. Let's haiku about what you do in July. Here, I will go first:
Calm lake, a slow boat
There are fish down there, I know
But this is enough.
Now it is your turn! Just use the 5//7/5 syllable pattern and have some fun!
Thursday, July 10, 2025
PMT: Hidden treasures?
Like many people-- perhaps even most people-- I was disappointed with a lot of things in the "Big Beautiful Bill" passed last week. In terms of spending money, it pretty much went the complete opposite of my own priorities: Big tax breaks for the most wealthy, cuts in support to those with the least among us, and big money for the military and ICE. Sigh.
Still, I sifted through the huge bill looking for some kind of bright spot (for people who feel the way I do, anyways). Here is what I found:
-- $4.8 billion to the Bureau of Prisons for hiring, training, and facilities. The BOP has been a rolling disaster for a while, and a lot of it boils down to a lack of staffing and decrepit facilities. So long as these funds don't go to increasing capacity (which is unlikely, since crime is way down, as is incarceration), this is a good investment for those in prison. A lack of staff and poor training has led to real deprivations, including lockdowns caused by nothing other than a lack of staff.
-- Allowing Pell grants for shorter-term vocational training-- $300 million. This is a good thing, as good vocational training will follow people's ability to pay for it. The bill also allocates $11 billion to continue to fund regular Pell grants.
-- $6.8 billion to expand Medicaid to more people to fund in-home care. Those most of the news on Medicaid is bad, this is probably good.
-- $2 billion for something relating to tax breaks for bicycle commuters. Which, as a bike commuter, I did not know about.
-- Allowing health care savings accounts to be used to pay for primary care outside of insurance.
-- Extension of a tax credit (set to expire) for investing in low-income communities.
I'm sure there are more. And I'm kind of dreaming that it was a Small Beautiful Bill that contained only these provisions....
Wednesday, July 09, 2025
Haiku, uh, Monday results
Because I get easily confused in the summer, we did haiku on Monday, but it was great! I was especially moved by two of them--
This one from my mom:
On 4th of July
I read my dad's account of
World War II service
Made me sad to think
of our country's values now.
Was struggle in vain?
Will compassion rule?
Can all thrive in America?
It depends on us.
I read my dad's account of
World War II service
Made me sad to think
of our country's values now.
Was struggle in vain?
Will compassion rule?
Can all thrive in America?
It depends on us.
And this one from Craig:
Blue Fourth of July.
Hard to muster much
spirit with hateful MAGA.
CNN reports
only 39% of Dems
proud of America.
Imperfect history.
Aspirational values
no longer in play.
Corruption, greed,
selfishness, and red MAGA
hate of other: SAD.
Hard to muster much
spirit with hateful MAGA.
CNN reports
only 39% of Dems
proud of America.
Imperfect history.
Aspirational values
no longer in play.
Corruption, greed,
selfishness, and red MAGA
hate of other: SAD.
I also loved Desiree's:
My immigrant and
veteran-rich family loves
enjoying flag cake!
veteran-rich family loves
enjoying flag cake!
And this from Christine:
Fireworks above
Bursting colors paint the sky
Americana.
Bursting colors paint the sky
Americana.
Who also had a response to Craig (who, I think, was in MI):
MAGA hats absent
But patriotic t-shirts
And crosses adorn
Many attendees
Await the skyshow, pass time
With endless scrolling.
But patriotic t-shirts
And crosses adorn
Many attendees
Await the skyshow, pass time
With endless scrolling.
Tuesday, July 08, 2025
The Tragedy Continues
The death toll from the flooding in and around Kerr County, Texas is now over 100, with over a quarter of them being children. It's a terrible tragedy, and one that probably could have been avoided with a good warning system.
It's hard to explain the appeal of those rivers through the Hill Country of Texas, but there really is nothing quite like tubing down the Guadalupe on a hot summer day. There is a lot of Texas-- even on the coast and where there is elevation- that just isn't very pretty unless you have a thing for shades of brown or are fascinated with what industry can do to a landscape. But that part, along those rivers, was objectively pretty.
Families in Waco sent their kids to Camp Mystic and the others in that area. I remember seeing some get ready, with carefully painted trunks full of stuff and ready to go. The parents would post pictures they got from the camps of kids in the water or playing games or in a play. It was a part of the cycle of life there for many people.
I suspect that may change for good.
Monday, July 07, 2025
Haiku Monday: How was the 4th?
So, yeah, I messed up!
In the summer, I often lose track of what day it is, and somehow a holiday on a Friday just confused me all the more. Which means that I skipped right over haiku Friday-- but we will make up for it today!
I hope everyone had a great 4th-- and let's haiku about that today. Here, I will go first:
I took a bike ride
To see the beauty of this
Place that we call home.
Now it is your turn (finally)! Just use the 5/7/5 syllable pattern and have some fun!
