Osler's Razor

I am bad at predictions, which does not stop me from making them. But I am good at reading everybody and distilling what may constitute a broad consensus of smart people.

Everybody seems to think (538, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Jr., etc) that Dems will take the House (10-15 seat margin seems a safe bet). Anything at the high mark or above that will definitely count as a wave.

Everybody seems to think the GOP will hold the Senate. A Dem take-back would be shocking and definitely constitute a tsunami. GOP wins in AZ, NV, IN, or MT will equal better than expected. Wins in TN and TX and ND now seem like the bare minimum--anything less would indicate a bad night for GOP. Mizzou vulnerable--leaning GOP. Florida possible but seemingly slipping away. NJ tantalizing--not likely but would be the story of the night--if Bob M. fell. If GOP ends night with 54 seats (on the high side of possible), they will be in decent shape to hold for 2020 as well.

Governor races in FL and GA super interesting. For years Southern Dems ran moderate white candidates and lost. Trend of running articulate black progressives seems like a real game-changer (to use a very old and tired cliche). Most competitive gub races I've seen in those states in many years.

Local. Looks like Texas will not change much (most likely extend unparalleled partisan winning streak. Of course. if Beto were to somehow pull off the upset, it would be the biggest political story of the year. TX 17 seems quite safe for Flores (Nate Silver has it as a >99 percent certainty). Watching TX 7, 31, and 32 this time (but esp. 7); TX 23 always a toss up but leaning comfortably GOP this cycle.


 

US House: Dem. majority (pickup of ~30 seats)
US Senate: Rep. majority (pickup of 1 seat)
TX Gov: Greg Abbot (R)
U.S. Senate TX: Canadian Rafael Edward Cruz will defeat the ever handsome Robert Francis O'Rourke by 5 points
US House TX-18.: Sheila Jackson Lee, the undisputed worst member of Congress, will win her election, and will continue to hold her seat until her death at an implausibly old age.
 

Here in the Bluegrass, we have one interesting race: In the House, retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath (D) is holding her own against incumbent Andy Barr (R) in the KY 6th - currently, she is polling at just 1/10th of a percentage point behind, 48.5 v. 48.6. My hope is that she will pull out the win but I don't know - her district has always been red-friendly.

Incumbents in all other races will hold their seats, I believe. Currently, our lone Democrat in the House is John Yarmuth in the KY 3rd - the district that includes Louisville. He's safe - currently polling at 60% while challenger Vickie Glisson (R) is at 36%.

Just across the Ohio River in Indiana, incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) and challenger Mike Braun (R) are neck-and-neck. And their TV ads are sickeningly ubiquitous. I predict Donnelly will hold on by his fingernails for the win. But really, at this point, I don't care which one wins, I just want both of them to vacate my devices and Go. Away.

My prayer continues to be that Beto is a November Surprise.
 

WF-- I agree with all of that. Interesting point re Dem Governor candidates.

CTL-- Going out on a limb with that Jackson Lee prediction, huh?

JS-- I'm glad I don't have to watch Donnelly/Braun ads. I haven't seen a single one here for whoever it is running against Amy Klobuchar.
 

House races: Virginia 5th and Virginia 7th are a toss-up according to Larry Sabato; according both to my instinct and my wishful thinking, I think they're going to go D. So, VA 5th to Leslie Cockburn, and Virginia 7th to Abigail Spanberger.

Another close call in the House is New Mexico 2nd. I'm betting on the challenger in a 2-woman race: Xochitl Torres Small (whom I know; a D who is very much true to her district and very moderate).
 

Polls, polls, polls... After 2016 I do not trust polls. When you read the fine print they have polled very few people. In fact I have stopped watching some of the evening shows I enjoy on MSNBC (TRMS) because they are obsessed with POLLS.

You won't see many changes in NC due to excessive gerrymandering. Even the though the courts have said our districts MUST be redrawn it won't happen until "post" election. How convenient for our republican legislature. So many excuses. We will defeat the 6 amendments on our ballot; 2 that have no language (to be provided if they pass - one of them is the voter id amendment). Again total BS on the part of our State legislature.

There are a few house seats that could turn Dem.
No Senate seats on our ballot this time.
Despite the lack of national interest voter turn out is extremely high which is a great thing for Dems.

In our other State - Florida my friends in St. Pete and Tampa are hard at work to get Andrew Gillium elected Governor and to send Bill Nelson back to the Senate. It seems most people I know in Florida are voting early by mail. I did read a real statistic yesterday that the vote in the African American community is very high compared to 2016.
 

No clue.

I'm very frustrated by the whole situation. I guess the Democrats will take the House. I HOPE they can somehow pull off a miracle and win the Senate. But I just don't know. REALLY hoping Andrew Janz takes out Devin Nunes in California. Same with the guy running against indicted Duncan Hunter Jr. and Janet Garrett over Jim Jordan in Ohio (long shot). And of course Beto over Cruz.

I sure Hope the Democrats can win the Governors' races in Georgia and Florida. Their opponents are scum.

Here's one weird anomaly: GOP incumbent Governors in Maryland and Massachusetts heaving favored to win re-election. MARYLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS?!?!

Both of them (Hogan and Baker) have distanced themselves from Trump significantly.
 

IPLG-- and both of them have been competent at their jobs.
 

No clue.

I'm very frustrated by the whole situation. I guess the Democrats will take the House. I HOPE they can somehow pull off a miracle and win the Senate. But I just don't know. REALLY hoping Andrew Janz takes out Devin Nunes in California. Same with the guy running against indicted Duncan Hunter Jr. and Janet Garrett over Jim Jordan in Ohio (long shot). And of course Beto over Cruz.

I sure Hope the Democrats can win the Governors' races in Georgia and Florida. Their opponents are scum.

Here's one weird anomaly: GOP incumbent Governors in Maryland and Massachusetts heaving favored to win re-election. MARYLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS?!?!

Both of them (Hogan and Baker) have distanced themselves from Trump significantly.
 

But how do you feel about the whole situation?