Osler's Razor

A report by a Nobel-winning economist and a collaborator has revealed a strange anomaly: Since the late 1990's, the death rate has gone up for white men between the ages of 45-54. That's my age group, but the increase in death rates is accounted for by those with low levels of education. A similar rise is found in no other groups, nor in other countries, as generally health outcomes improve over time in the absence of a disruption such as war.

The cause of these deaths is identified, too: The increase is driven by the number of suicides, overdoses, and health problems caused primarily by alcohol and drug use. In short, they are self-inflicted.

Of course, there are explanations flying around about what caused this.  Charles Murray believes that it is caused by the lack of a strong work ethic-- that people are "goofing off." (isn't that supposed to be millenials, not their dads?). In Murray's view, the welfare state has created the problem.  His thesis is undercut by the fact that the precise opposite outcome is observed in nations with a much stronger dose of socialism than we have, such as Sweden.

The American Prospect article linked above describes an important observation made by the report authors: the rise in death coincides with the wide availability of opiates such as OxyContin.  It also coincides with the rise in income inequality in our nation, driven in part by the dismantling of unions and the decimation of American manufacturing in favor of cheaper labor in China.

I wonder… will the fact that OxyContin may be increasing death rates receive the same analysis and response that created the spread of crack in the 1980's?